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LuckCounts
Nevertheless, that last update showed just how little of the cash that is generated makes it to the bottom line and does not bode well for the upcoming 2021 financials.
The man who predicted Trinity would end 2021 with $24.5 million says Trinity isn’t generating as much cash as the rampers predict. You really can’t make this stuff up.
St Ross can’t be a serious poster, he’s surely a parody.
More examples could be given, but St Ross was permanently banned from ADVFN earlier this year for repeated breaches of its posting rules (another example of his brilliance - of course though it was them, not him) and his contributions deleted.
LuckCounts
“His opinion that the TGAL FID would take place in 2020 was clearly predicated on SPT reform.”
Exactly my point. His take on the timing of TGAL FID turned out to be (way) wrong because his take on SPT reform was wrong. What I am saying is that you and posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76 need to consider the very real possibility that your current take on SPT reform is again wrong. In fact it seems to me more likely than not that either no news at all will emerge in June or no news will emerge on which commercial decisions can be made. As for successful tax reform at the end of the day, my sense is that the momentum has been lost. I am unimpressed by what sounds like increasingly empty rhetoric.
As I said before, I bet TRIN now wish that Galeota was in some other jurisdiction.
As for the opinions that you list, look again at what I actually said. It was mainly in response to the rampy takes of posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76 on these issues. Whether you like it or not, they were wrong. I do not recall predicting dramatic falls in production - more likely I was simply querying the uplifts that they were predicting. SCADA has certainly not been a game changer. Again I do not recall predicting dramatic uplifts in costs, although you have to admit that I did predict the cost uplift revealed in the most recent update. And when have I ever said that TRIN is not generating cash? All I have done is pointed out that it is not generating nearly as much cash as the rampers would have folk believe.
Some of St Ross’s great opinions:
1. Repeated predictions of dramatic falls in Trinity’s production.
2. Repeated doubts about the wisdom of Trinity investing in SCADA (it’s as a consequence of that investment that production has been maintained).
3. Concerns that Trinity’s costs will dramatically jump because the old management, who were cleared out in 2016, failed to manage costs.
4. A belief that Trinity isn’t generating cash even though it managed to spend over $10 million on investment (including $4.5 million on an acquisition - an acquisition that St Ross alone thought was a poor deal) in 2021 and saw its VAT rebate increase by a few million dollars with only a $2 million reduction in its cash balances.
And St Ross believes that he’s usually right.
LuckCounts
1. To be fair, the only posters I describe as “rampers” are the rampers.
2. This is true, you cannot be sceptical enough about cash generation under the current fiscal regime.
3. Check again - I was referencing Pavey Ark on TGAL FID (Final Investment Decision).
4. The classic ramper mistake - treating aspirational management statements as all but bankable (see e.g. 3. above). And, of course, we will shortly find out what happens (or not) in June.
5. Just wrong - I am consistently sceptical.
6. By calling people rampers? Hardly.
7. And yet I have generally been right to be sceptical about TRIN when the supposedly well-researched Pavey Arks and Ab76s have generally been wrong.
8. All contributions to the debate are welcome (even from rampers).
LuckCounts
Bless you, my son.
This year’s President Putin Medal of Commendation for Best Discussion Board Contributor goes to rossannan. In granting this prestigious award, which entitles rossannan to henceforth be known as St Ross of Annan, the judges noted the followed:
1. St Ross’s willingness to describe himself as the victim of abusive posts when in actual fact rather than be abused he’s the one who abuses others (e.g. his repeated use of the word “rampers” to describe other contributors).
2. St Ross’s assertion that he’s here to call out “rampers” when in actual fact he’s own predictions leave a lot to be desired (e.g. his prediction in early January that Trinity would end 2021 with $24.5 million in cash, when in actual fact the company ended the year with $18.5 million as indicated by the CEO at the December presentation - a presentation St Ross didn’t bother to watch despite his claimed expertise in the company).
3. St Ross’s repeated misquotation of other people’s contributions so that he then claim that they are wrong and he is right (e.g. Pavey Ark, on ADVFN, made clear his belief in July 2020 that there will not be a Galeota farm out before SPT is reformed and his prediction of a farm out that years was conditional on that reform first taking place - something St Ross conveniently leaves out).
4. St Ross’s willingness to attribute information provided by Trinity’s management, Trinidad’s government and other experts working in the energy sector about the energy sector to whichever contributor has posted about it, rather than to the sources themselves (e.g. Trinity’s belief that there were will be SPT reform in H1 2022 becomes the wishful thinking of contributors).
5. St Ross’s tendency to post positive things about Trinity when he’s looking to sell his shares for a small profit and negative things once he’s sold them (and, based on previous experience, waiting for an opportunity to buy them back).
6. St Ross’s ability to sow discord wherever he posts his contributions.
7. St Ross’s general failure to carry out or consider any research. He simply claims that his general scepticism entitles him to ignore it.
8. St Ross’s ability, as consequence of all of the above, to discourage others from posting on boards he contributes to, allowing him to thereafter dominate the discussion.
LuckCounts
“if SPT reforms happen”
LuckCounts
Put it this way: I am no longer convinced that, in the absence of fiscal reform, TRIN would remain in three figures.
LuckCounts
“You have been inconsistent - go back to your post where you claim that TRIN can only fall back so much due to value situation... and than turned tail...”
No, I was perfectly entitled to modify my view on the back of that last, rather disappointing, update. I had certainly thought that the value case significantly limited the downside, but as I pointed out at the time:
“Reflecting on yesterday’s update, particularly the financials, I don’t think anyone can now talk with a straight face about TRIN throwing off cash - it really does seem that the current fiscal regime has TRIN running to stand still. I am now less convinced that there is a value case here, not without significant fiscal reform anyway. The worry has to be that TRIN is being strung along on fiscal reform.”
The downside is not unlimited but it certainly seems bigger than it did only a couple of weeks ago.
LuckCounts
It doesn’t sound as if you are actually taking the time to read what I post. You should. You will find that whether or not I have been invested at the time I posted, my posts have been (a) remarkably consistent and (b) generally right. You and the others who talk their TRIN books on BBs can certainly claim (a) but you certainly cannot claim (b) as the RNSs demonstrate.
LuckCounts
I think that is your mistake, imagining that they have an impact and posting accordingly instead of ensuring that you backed the right horse in the first place.
“It is clear your agenda... drumbeat roll of negative TRIN troll spin in a low volume share and than pick-up shares cheapily at these ridiculous prices due to low volumes to sell into news..... cunning little troll....”
Do you genuinely believe that BB posts have traction on the TRIN share price?
LuckCounts
Sorry, I would rather talk about TRIN. You crack on though and if you include anything about TRIN I will address that. For example, your “but TRIN is currently valued for a worst case scenario”. Really? Even if in June there is neither fiscal reform nor even any signalling of fiscal reform? Good luck with that.
LuckCounts
This BB is about TRIN, not about me. You can try, as did other abusive posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76, to make the conversation about me. You would obviously like me to go away, but that is not going to happen. The fact remains that I have called this better than any of you and was right to sell up after TRIN doubled from single figures and, in the absence of any immediate prospect of fiscal reform, concentrate on trading it. If you all stop talking your books and look at TRIN more objectively, you will do better.
LuckCounts
Again, name calling is pointless. Any number of posts, however abusive, are not going to make a blind bit of difference to the outcome here - this one is all down to whether or not meaningful fiscal reform happens.
No AIM share is worth getting that attached to. At some point the people involved let you down, or there is a problem with the jurisdiction the company is operating in, or both.
The people are not the problem here, but the figures in that last update, bad enough for me to put even the value case under review, illustrate that Trinidad and Tobago is a toxic jurisdiction - TRIN takes the risks but the rewards are forever withheld.
“TRIN is a dog because of SPT”
Correct.
PipeDragger
What would they pay a special dividend out of other than their cash reserve? Would that make any sense?
They are certainly not making enough of a profit to justify a dividend, not under the current, rather toxic, fiscal regime. Yes, the Government make encouraging noises in the direction of TRIN and other oil companies from time to time, but I doubt that these are the same noises they make in the direction of their base.
The Government have a small, but distinct, window of opportunity to do the right thing.
Time will tell what they do with it.
Rossanan, If TRIN do not proceed with Galeota then they should declare a special dividend for the shareholders.
I read some of the chatter about SPT but it isn't coming from TRIN directly. There is zero chance that they alone can force a govt to cut taxes. SPT does leave some profit. Better to have some profit tax than sit on you hands is what I say.
In theory, yes. But it is interesting to explore this idea.
Right now, under the current fiscal regime, TRIN looks a bit like a hamster in a wheel - and it looks as if the powers that be like it that way. Employment is created, both directly and indirectly, and very significant amounts of tax are paid. There is certainly enough revenue left over to pay some substantial BoD salaries. But I am not seeing significant shareholder value being generated and, more importantly, neither is the market.
So can Galeota generate significant shareholder value without meaningful fiscal reform? Well, what has been negotiated on Galeota certainly contains some useful sweeteners. But without substantial changes to the SPT regime, any potential farm down partner will still see a fiscal regime that remains unfriendly and will perhaps wonder how much profit they will actually be allowed to make over time. This will not help TRIN’s bargaining position and, if the farm down does go ahead, it will likely then be on terms that are significantly less shareholder friendly.
So if no meaningful fiscal reform emerges, will the TRIN BoD, undoubtedly a cut above the usual AIM suspects, go into bat for their shareholders? They could threaten to shelve Galeota and to start deploying TRIN’s capital in more friendly jurisdictions, for example. Or will they just get Galeota done to grow the business but without anything like the kind of uplift in shareholder value that the folk invested here are hoping for?
Time will tell.
I have seen it being suggested that the logical time to announce the outcome of the taxation review is at the annual half-year budget review in June and being asserted that this is when changes to fiscal measures are commonly made.
My own impression from the most recent budget reviews
https://www.ey.com/en_gl/tax-alerts/trinidad-and-tobago-issues-mid-year-budget-review-2020
https://www.finance.gov.tt/2021/06/10/supplementary-appropriation-and-budget-mid-year-review-statement-2021/
is that this is more likely to take the form of a taxation review progress report than any actual changes to fiscal measures. The question is maybe whether this progress report will adequately identify for TRIN’s purposes what changes are being contemplated. I would not bet on it, even if TRIN believe that they have heard encouraging noises in the recent past.
LuckCounts
Not what I said. Some drilling will happen, but if there is no meaningful fiscal reform in the near future, any drilling campaign that starts in the meantime will be far from exciting - just you wait. Some kind of fiscal reform will presumably emerge from the Budget, if not before, even if this is only to make the temporary $75 onshore threshold permanent. But without significantly more than that, yes, Galeota may indeed not happen. You keep mentioning those tax losses, but they cannot be used against SPT, only against PPT.
Neither of us is an oracle, but which one of us has called this better? Was I right to sell up after TRIN doubled from single figures and, in the absence of any immediate prospect of fiscal reform, concentrate on trading it? I think so.
Meaningful fiscal reform or no meaningful fiscal reform? That it all that really matters here.
PipeDragger
It all comes down to the fiscal regime. Saying in that last RNS that they passed on NWD “due to the high technical and operational risks, which the consortium concluded significantly challenge the commercial attractiveness of the opportunity”, was probably as close as they dared come to telling the powers that be to fix their fiscal regime so that risks like NWD become worth taking.
Sadly, anyone doing their due diligence on Galeota, even though as development it is more about project economics than technical/operational risk, will be having similar thoughts about the fiscal regime, while I suspect that the pace of the H2 drilling will be very much linked to the news (or lack of it) on fiscal reform.
The leopards who are in charge here are clearly reluctant to change their spots.
It's is a long term hold. Such good potential.... but so little action. All time oil price high, sitting on a pile of cash .... but not spinning the drill yet.