Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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As I see it, management are guiding for circa 15% top line growth over the next three years to March 2026 (£127m in revenue in 2026, approx), with a plan to improve EBITDA margin to at least 10% in the year to March 2026, which will equate to £12.7m in EBITDA. If they meet or beat expectations over the coming two years I would expect the market to forward value this progression for 2026 (i.e. early in calendar year 2025, which is 18-24 months away) and a "fair" valuation multiple will be a minimum of 10x EV/EBITDA in my view, which would equate to £127m. Net debt shouldn't rise, in fact it should fall, with cash generation and no further acquisitions, but assuming debt stays the same (unlikely), this would imply an equity value of at least £110m. Today's equity value is £32m. That is 3.4x increment in the share price from today's level of 34.5p or a 244% return over the coming 24 months. This requires management to meet or beat the lower end of their guidance for the next two financial years. This is an attractive risk reward in my view. I'm bummed to have owned and held TPX down from 220p levels but I see light at the end of this dark tunnel and a good return prospect over the coming 18-24 months. Conviction here is underscored by a new and more experienced management team under Bjorn Conway and Steve Winters, a materially lower staff attrition or churn profile since the beginning of this year (that is now industry beating), and a management strategy of conservative guidance that can be met or beaten.
If my fundamental analysis makes sense to you, you might want to also take a look at PLUS and SEPL, two other names I hold which offer >100% return opportuntiy with a highly asymetric risk-reward profile.
GLA
The fundamentals of this business are solid here, they are making a profit and all brokers saying they are massively undervalued. SP should be more like £1 by end of the year and double that the year after.
"Our aim is to achieve 10-12% Adjusted EBITDA margins within 3 years."
A slow road to recovery admittedly, but new management have credibility and the prospects are again hopeful.
That's a strange assumption you make. Management just reiterated a timeline for return to profitability. There's no disaster around the corner. The issue is the pace of recovery in profitability is rather slow. There are so many dead cheap stocks on the LSE, I can understand the antipathy. But it's also an illiquid share, so a large down day isn't often meaningful. That said, my view is that the guidance is very conservative and will be beaten. This still a multi bagger, but will take time. This share is for the patient for sure, but the reward should be great.
Dropping like a stone now. Seems their largest ever contracts and covenant waiver aren't enough to get this to pump. Market is expecting results to be a disaster? Anyone know why?
Over weeks there are some big sold but why? Things are good and it returns back all nomal then business getting more win contacts. All things have been sorted then bank extended thier covenant too. Only matter of time for this grow back this year . Not wait too long from now.
TPXimpact Holdings PLC (AIM: TPX), the technology-enabled services company focused on people-powered transformation, will announce its Unaudited Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2023 on Thursday 6 July 2023
Bjorn Conway, CEO & Steve Winters, CFO will host an online presentation of the company’s results on Thursday 6th July at 1pm including a Q&A session.
Register here: https://bit.ly/TPX_FY23_webinar
I think next leg up will be when results are posted this Thursday. Market is pricing in disaster so anything better than that will move the SP North. The huge new contracts are the only thing priced into the current MC. Feels like a gem of a turnaround play this, although it make a while before momentum builds.
Covenant fixed. Another big step taken on the path to rehabilitation.
It's a framework, which means they'll be various roles over say a 5 year period, but the spend is up to £500M. TPX is one of the larger service suppliers in the framework so they will be a larger winner of the contracts available. Even if TPX only get 5% of the work available that's still £10 mil. My industry works much the same way.
Thanks Christo. The award doesn't seem to give a clear indication of actual spend, more of a range from 0 upwards, perhaps I am misreading it, and TPX is one of many, most of which are small unheard of suppliers. I'm skeptical about the value of this one.
Check: http s://bidstats.u k/tenders/2023/W18/798032300 (delete gaps in https and uk ) TPX are on the framework.
I don't find any new Kent related contract awarded to TPX. Please provide a link.
On the Kent Country Council £500M framework. Expect TPXImpact to have an 8 figure share of that as a minimum. Lets hope margins have improved and this will bag again from here!
Do something
Bigger margins and debt reduced will see this bag in a day!
Where are your FY results TPX?
Let's hear management's plan for returning margins to double digit levels and not waiting till 2025!
SP has barely priced in the two new contract wins ON TOP of the other business they've been winning, and the existing business they have. This could still bag from here on 1 good RNS!
Full year results out next week. Hopefully with much more clarity about returning to 10%+ margins. Coming from a very low base - stock price can only rise from here, IMHO.
I bought a measly 1005 of these the other day, can’t remember why. Talk about low liquidity! I guess it’s one to forget about and check again in a year or two.
To my position. Seems I am the only buyer atm. I like that! Ready for the next leg up on debt waiver and more contracts won. GLA
Still winning more contracts.... This stock has another 200% in it!
They got 100 millions 4 years contact this month so far so good , This will drive share back to its hight 210 very soon.
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?ntype=tender#799211519-798032332-27
On search type "tpximpact" and you will see how much they got so far. , Huge cheap now let buy and waith 3 months we will see big different.
I've read his book Multiply, which describes the agile and outcome/impact focused approach that TPX employs and makes a compelling case for it. I can see how TPX is winning over public sector clients at a clip. Their approach is also relevant for private enterprises.