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The market seems to have had a general pessimistic view on the newspaper industry for some time now based on a belief that newpapers are declining and its all about digital. The reality is that peopel still buy papers in significant numbers (Daily Mirror circualtion is still above 1m copies per day for example). Trinity Mirror have also invested heavily in mordern technolgy in recent years alowing them to maintian very strong margins making them somewhat highly cash generative. The market also viewed TNI as having far too much debt, this has been significantly reduced in the past few years hence the current level. Put simply the market cap of TNI is circa £160m and yet it generates over £100m in profits.........take a look at what other companies PE look like this !
appreciate the response. would you care to explain why the company was recently in the 20's? If earnings are so assured what gave the market the jitters to mark them down so much? thanks in advance
cant see the SP getting much higher from here unless there is some dramatic news like a takeover
Divisional breakdown Breaking the performance down by division, among the Nationals total revenue fell by 12% to £135m with advertising revenues falling by 9%, circulation revenues falling by 18% and other revenues increasing by 5%. Among the regionals total revenue fell by 9% to £89m with advertising revenues falling by 13%, circulation revenues falling by 6% and other revenues increasing by 8%. Digital revenues grew by 8% for the period with Nationals in line with the prior year and regionals growing by 9%. Excluding Communicator Corp, which was acquired in December 2011, digital revenues fell by 1%.
its pension deficit increased during the period due to a fall in long term interest rates. The deficit increased by £73m from £210m at the half year to £283m at the end of September 2012. This reflected an increase in liabilities of £131m partially offset by an increase in asset values of £58m. Surprisingly, it hasn't yet been hit by any claims over phone hacking, as it explained: "Following the extensive publicity given to recent claims of alleged wrong doing by Trinity Mirror journalists, the Board can confirm that no such claims have yet been served, nor have any particulars of such claims been provided. As a result, we are today issuing notices requiring claim forms to be served." There was no update on its taking a minority interest in a in a new company comprising the assets of Northcliffe Media and Iliffe News & Media, as announced on October 29th.
Trinity Mirror has produced mixed trading results, which indicated that it has not yet stemmed the decline in print advertising revenues, although it has yet to be been hit by any claims over telephone hacking. As a result the company expects adjusted operating profits to be broadly in line with 2011's figure of £104m. In a trading update covering the 17 weeks to October 28th, the publisher of five national newspapers and 130 regional titles said the decline in advertising revenues had continued. "The Daily Mirror has outperformed the tabloid market and our other national and regional titles continue to perform broadly in line with the market. However, the challenging trading environment, coupled with tougher comparatives for the second half of 2012 following the closure of the News of the World in July 2011, have contributed to an expected increase in the rate of decline in revenues over the period relative to the first half." On a more positive note, it added: "...Robust operating profits and strong cash flow during the period enabled a further £19m reduction in net debt, giving a total reduction of £59m for the year to date, to £162m.
The pension deficit will move up and down in all companies due to variations in interest rates and the way the scheme has to be managed (the main thing is payments over the next couple of years are small at £10m). The main thing about todays annoucement is that Trinity Mirror is on track to hit £104m profit for 2012 and debt already reduced to £162m making current debt just over 1.5 times earnings (a very nice place to be). As already iterated in various publications this company is seriously undervalued based on its forcast EPS and it cant be long until we also see the dvidiend reintsated. Although Im sure this is still a medium term buy and hold for those willing to wait the rewards will be had.
worried about the pension deficit?
Trinity Mirror: Panmure Gordon keeps buy rating and 90p target
Trinity Mirror, the parent company of the Daily Mirror and The People is down following news that both tabloid newspapers have been drawn into the wave of phone-hacking scandals. Former England football manager Sven Goran Erikson is among four people intending to sue the Daily Mirror and the Sunday People. Until now, firm allegations of phone hacking have only related to titles owned by Rupert Murdoch's rival News Corporation: The News of the World and, to a lesser extent, The Sun. When contacted, a Trinity Mirror spokesman said: "We have no comment, we are unaware action has been taken at the High Court."
This will have been dealt with by the group along time ago. Remember that the previous hacking case was an attack against the Murdoch family so very different here. This share has turned the corner and recent rises are off the back of certain investors who know what is coming in November. After all the talk of print media being dead the balance sheet is incredibly strong. Cashflow is king for any future buyer and the talk about pension liabilities is talked about on a gross not net basis. Have seen quotes in the past were liabilities are quoted without mentioning the actual assets. It may take a hit but will keep riding to year end.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20036822 I'm surprised that its taken this long for hacking claims to be made against the Mirror/Sunday Mirror. Expect the share price to fall sharply later today. The current share price is beginning to look toppy given that group revenue is still falling and the pension deficit, although declining, is still sizeable.
Simon Fox commented: "It has very quickly been confirmed to me that Trinity Mirror is a business with great brands, passionate and dedicated people and significant unrealised potential. What has become clear in my first few weeks is that realising this potential requires a flatter and more efficient management structure that connects strategic decision making more closely with the journalistic heart of the business. I believe the changes we are making today will create One Trinity Mirror with a unique portfolio of national and regional brands and the best structure from which to develop our longer term strategic direction. I will provide a strategic update in early 2013."
CONT These changes allow a flatter, more efficient management structure to be adopted. As a consequence of this new management structure, Georgina Harvey, Managing Director - Regionals and Nick Fullagar, Director of Corporate Communications will be leaving the business. They have both made an important and valued contribution to the Group for which the Board is enormously grateful. The Group is also announcing its intention to close Happli, the recently launched daily deals business. It is considered that the business is unlikely to reach sufficient scale to become profitable in the near term. We will now enter into a period of consultation with staff working in the business. Trading remains in line with the Board's expectations. The IMS will be published on 8th November 2012 as planned.
One Trinity Mirror - Changes to Management Structure Trinity Mirror plc (the "Group") today announces a change in the management structure of the Group to create a more efficient model from which to develop our longer term strategic direction as "One Trinity Mirror". The Nationals and Regionals divisions will be unified under one management structure thereby ensuring that editorial, advertising and support functions can operate as effectively as possible across all of the Group's print and digital publishing operations. This will enable an accelerated rollout of digital products across our portfolio to drive revenues. The consolidated publishing operations will be managed by Mark Hollinshead, who is today appointed to the newly created position of Chief Operating Officer and as an Executive Director of Trinity Mirror plc. Digital product development and the specialist digital businesses (Recruitment, Property and Digital Marketing Services) as well as the Group's contract printing operations will now be separately managed and report directly into the CEO.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201210150700116506O
One point in particular that appears to have been overlooked by many investors is the possibility that Trinity Mirror could unlock the value of its property assets. The nominal book value of its freehold assets was £176.8m as of January 1st 2012, equivalent to approximately 68p a share. The opportunity of a strong bounce-back from these levels is probably the reason that it can still number the following among its major shareholders: Schroder (16.7%), Aviva (11.5%), Standard Life (9%), Royal London Asset Management (5.3%), BlackRock (4.9%), JP Morgan (4.9%) and Old Mutual (4.9%). Consensus estimates for the year ending December 31st 2012 are for earnings per share of 26.75p, putting the company on a price earnings ratio of just over 2.
This was followed on August 30th by the news that Simon Fox - boss of media entertainment retailer HMV - was leaving to become Chief Executive at Trinity Mirror. "He was dealt a losing hand at HMV, but he moved them into live-music which is where the money is these days in the pop & rock biz," comments Managing Editor John Harrington at Digital Look.com. Reduction in debt Strong cash flows have enabled a reduction in net debt from £265.9m at the start of 2011 to £180.9m by the time of its interims to July 1st. A major concern has been its pensions deficit, although it is making progress in this area. At the end of 2011 its pensions deficit stood at £230m, yet by July 1st it had fallen to £209.9m. In parallel, the company successfully managed to reduce overpayments on its pensions from £33m a year to £10m a year for the next three years (until 2015), and these liabilities, while significant, appear manageable, some observers believe.
Trinity Mirror, best known as the publisher of five national newspapers, has continued its dramatic bounce back from an all-time low of 27p during the summer. Its share price has collapsed over the past couple of years due to concerns about falling ad revenues and circulation figures from its newspapers, high levels of debt and an ongoing pensions deficit. However, sentiment appears to have changed with the arrival of new management and the belated recognition that the business is being turned around with a move into digital channels and a reduction in debt. New management First came the arrival in August of a new Chairman, David Grigson, a big-hitter who knows the media business. He was a financial director at publishing and exhibitions firm Emap in the 90s and chairman of Emap Digital, before becoming financial director at financial information firm Reuters, helping to restructure its failing businesses and leading it into a successful merger with Canadian publishing giant Thomson in 2008.
Newsfax in administration -Johnsons closing down print sites. Its never looked so good for Trinitys contract print arm. ATB.
In 2009, these shares rose from 25p to over 175p in about six months. The company was in much less impressive shape at that time than it is now. Debt is much lower and being reduced rapidly. and we have new management with share based incentives as opposed to mega salaries. No one expects a stellar rating, but the shares are still dirt cheap if they can start to turn the company round.
The markets are often not rational at all.
I agree with Abbs, I've been holding a lot of this stock for nearly two years at an average price of just under 50p. A few months ago I'd almost given up hope of getting my money back and referred to the company as a lemon. I'm now out and grateful to have made a relatively modest profit. I think shareholders will now be in for a rollercoaster ride but the newspaper industry is not one to be optimistic about and TNI's web-based businesses are still loss making and burning cash.
Looks like my 60p price target predicted on 14 September might be realised tomorrow. I sold the rest of my holding today because I think Trinity now risks going from under-valued to over-valued. Although the corner may have been turned revenue is still falling and the massive pension deficit still exists. That said, I would not be surprised if it went on to 70p or more, but the sp has now doubled in the last two months.
I'm in at 57p, made over £200 already with a 100pp spread bet. I'm convinced this will get to a pound! Good luck all, this is a good share, I've won with it before.