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I think he was just showing an example of the process.. The company will have a system where there multiple drills and teams putting up the Poles and then a few wiring gangs following on running the cables .. I really don’t know how long it will take but less them most think I would say.. labour costs are cheap in Africa so there will be many manual labours and a few skilled gangers and a couple of managers!
Tlou Energy, southern africa’s leading gas to power producer. Successfully achieved by following YouTube self teach modules.
Smith - the only thing right is ‘YouTube’
Obviously it would be great to have profit at anytime within my time in Tlou . But the priority for me is the end result (share price) the AIM market is a fickle beast .. where people are so short term they are in and out of a share quicker than they change their underwear.. I am holding long so fully expect a great return in the end .. what happens in the mean time is Collateral Damage and will hopefully right it’s self as the project de-risks .. on another note if the share price had grown in value from my initial investment I would not have so many shares as I do ... so hopefully things will even themselves out in the fullness of time! .. “onward”
And they seem likely to use more than one drill?
66kV is not considered for some reason?
But if poles are every 100m then 10 poles needed per Km and 100km will be around 1000 poles?
That looks achievable for the first 95km and the 5km through the outskirts of Serowe will probably be denser unless the route is alongside very straight roads.
If they only need to drill 6' holes I cannot believe it will take that long to erect the poles. e.g. 10 per day = 100 days , 3 per day , surely easily achieved, is 333 days? And if they have likely to use more than one drill depending how many workers will be installing the wires and fittings. Dewatering looks to me as the biggest unknown but TLOU hopes don't look too forlorn to me.
+++++++ quotes ....
"The spacing distance between transmission structures varies based on a number of factors.
For distribution structures (35 kV and less), typical spacings range from about 75–100m. For transmission structures (greater than 100 kV), the spacings range from about 150 to over 300m, with greater spacings at the higher voltage levels."
"No hard and fast answer. But 30ft (9m) would be a good average pole.
They are classed for width as (L) Light, (M) Medium, (H) Heavy or the less commonly used Stout.
How deep are they planted ? A pole should be “planted” approx 6ft (1.8m) into the ground."
Winni when I first invested I had 5 years in my mind to be showing a healthy profit and then reassess at that point!
But I bet that a lot of the long term holders here will only have shown a profit 2/3 times in the last 4 years, some will not have been in profit in that period! Which is just astonishing really, the only times people would have seen a profit, would have been the week before they raised money at stupid prices!
This from a bod that have promised so much, but in reality have delivered very little!!!
We continue to see gilby and the rest drag their heels on everything!
The funding is the biggest issue here and they still Cannot complete on it (tantalisingly close my arse)!
The bod have gone silent again!
We should have a raft of news due, where is it?
When i was came across the Tlou opportunity back in 2017 and after much research i could see this had long term written all over it . At the time i invested first i had 10 years in mind to make a profitable business. Whilst there have been many strong head winds to over come, things are starting to come to fruition.. Long way to go and there has been some dilution which was to be expected. But still believe there is a good profit to be made from my current holding if this is successful.
Nice post Winni. Time is too much of an issue for people who post on here!
Get rich quick merchants who wrongly criticise TLOU so unfairly.
I have never expected this to happen overnight , but I have always been certain that this one is going to reach fruition.
Tlou made a couple of mistakes but forgiveable ones.
1. RFP, with hindsight they could have questioned the requirement that tenderers had to have a history of supplying Botswana with CBM powered electricity. Presumably none of the tenders picked up on this, or more likely, they knew it was impossible and expected the Govt to ignore it?
2. They expected dewatering at Lesedi to be as fast as it was at Selemo. Again with hindsight, could they have continued witt Selemo (and paid the royalties)? But the water was always going to be an unexpected problem one day. So where would we have been now?
There were 4 major delays
1a. Sekaname requested that the tendering deadline be extended, so all (both) tenderers were given extentions to complete or revise their RFP.
1b. Once those revised RFPs were considered, the demands for previous history was realised and the Govt started over again with that redacted and other changes? I dunno!
2a. That was a long delay, remininscent of Sirius , as both companies realised they had to to wear belt and braces next time round. The Govt were not pushing anything through quickly. I imagine both sides queried every ambiguous item to be sure to be sure!
2b. Preferred bidders were eventually announced.
2c. TLOU continued work, in the expectation of being accepted, so it was not a total waste of time. Typical of good management!
3. That pesky dewatering process has dragged on and on. Quick extensions of the wells needed.
4. Covid!
Going forward , tx lines for initial power are coming, and drilling will resume at some point.
The Orapa decisions are coming and solar or CBM can load those tx lines.
From there do we concentrate on a pipeline to Orapa or enhancing power to Serowe or elsewhere?
This is all going to happen imho, but as Winni says, all in good time!
Exactly right - let’s get on with things ! And keep things real and in perspective whilst we do. Only gullible clowns will believe this particular Rome will be built in a year. How come this board attracted more than its fair share.
Building a new industry in a Southern African country was never going to be easy or quick. The wheels of government turn excruciating slow most of the time , so with this in mind it will take as long as it takes ..all Tlou and TG can do is move it on as quick as they can.. But there are still head winds a head .. but the noise is more positive then ever .. so TG “let’s go”
Epiphany - that moment when one realises all of one’s past thinking has been misguided.
Disingenuous - the content of many of Tlou’s announcements over the years.
Reality - ability to see clearly through the noise.
Foresight - ability to use one’s intelligence and come up with sensible and realistic scenarios ahead.
Madness - continually repeating the mistakes of the past.
Infatuation - intense passion or admiration for something or someone.
Time will tell. These dont need to be debated on slow days just because Smith needs to kill time. The last 3 years have been excruciatingly slow - that is fact which doesn’t need further debate. Botswana’s Energy Resource plan indicates 10MW of CBM by 2025 - that is published by Ministry of Minerals, Green Technology and Energy Security. They are not setting ambitious targets for CBM; echoed by Minister in Parliament last week - CBM Resources needs further definition and proving up. So UNLESS private sector companies like Tlou and Sekaname have the money to go it alone (ie establish the CBM market themselves), CBM will develop at Govt and Ministry pace.
And that pace will be what that pace will be. My view is that pace will not be as quick as Smith or MM would try to kid everyone into believing.
BUT things are starting to move quicker now than before. Isn’t it better therefore to Under-promise and Over-deliver rather than constantly Over-promising and Under-delivering .....
"The first stage of development will be the erection of wooden poles fitted with an overhead 66 kV transmission line. The transmission line route has been surveyed and full environmental approval is already in place.
The line will predominantly cross flat, arid terrain with the last 5km through the outskirts of Serowe."
I was looking for the podcast where Tony said the route crossed no major rivers, roads or conurbations but flat and arid looks pretty good to me. Construction and maintenance sounds very easy to me! No traffic, people, etc if it is very isolated - so no traffic calming, low risk of pandemic, and few safety precautions required to protect the public! Quite a few positives there considering they are supposed to be negatives!
Crossword time, after a day of cross words?
You carry on believing Tony is in control here; that he really is the king of CBM in Botswana; that delays in raising funding is because Tony doesn’t want to pay unnecessary coupon; or in order to minimise cost of capital. What other total gosh have you dredged up and repeated ad nauseum here ..... Oh yes, that Tlou will get the full 100MW in time; that a 66kV line will connect Tlou to the grid and unlock untold riches; that 600m shares in issue isn’t a big deal and that 1.0 billion plus is equally no big deal.
Best of all, you keep believing every milestone Tlou announce will be achieved with heaps of time to spare when the reality of the past 4 years is anything but. But hey, you carry on believing mate. Coz you know best, you know everything about Tlou and what you don’t know, you read about it online and thereafter it becomes gospel and fact.
You carry right on my olde China. Time will tell - and time is the one thing Africa has lots of.
Did you ever wonder why that is per chance? If you understood both the question and the answer, well then maybe you would have that much-needed epiphany.
Company suggesting few weeks to get contracts signed, then 12 months to install poles, transmission wires etc.
I'll be completely honest donk I don't know how long it takes to construct 100km of poles and wires and I'd wager neither do you. The company however believes first sales are possible within a year and I'm sure they have a far better understanding than you or I. With modern excavating equipment I wouldn't imagine it takes long at all but I'm sure the company will give guidance once the contracts are finalised. The hold ups here have been down to government, this next phase is private contracted companies that will have to give assurances on time lines and presumably pay penalties for overruns, so yes I'm fairly optimistic that this next phase should proceed fairly smoothly and at a decent pace.
Well thought out Donk !
So if I follow your logic, the task is much more long-winded than any of us clown's believe .
From that would you want to start putting up the poles sooner or later?
You are a nincompoop if you think TG should have started later. So you are a nincompoop !
But that has never been in doubt! I never thought you were as thick as you are . but I guess all your stirring does not help with that! Civil war is not the most ridiculous ide you have had. Give in here and see if you can impress the other board!
You absolute clowns think a 100km transmission line across rough terrain and soft sands well out in the bush is going to be constructed and operational within a year. When the contractors have just been appointed.
What absolute dream world do you guys inhabit?
Has the last few years taught you absolutely nothing?
Now instead of rushing to rubbish me, take a moment and think about the bigger picture that matters here...... And that picture honestly and truly is not about attacking my every post and utterance...
After the long wait, I reckon our tenderers will be raring to go and won't need encouragement.
They'll be building before we get a reply showing us where TG went wrong - a TLOU related subject that I am not going to rest because I have been told to stay on topic, and I always do as I am told .... call me Maverick Vinales.
Not yet although I'm sure TLOU will press upon the two tender winners that expediency is important after the company tweeted the other day a proactive interview where they claimed first sales 'within a year' were possible.
Hi all. Great to see that a contract has now been awarded for the installation of the transmission lines. Has it been specified anywhere what the timescale for the installation/commissioning process is?
Thanks