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morning everyone
so a lot of us have been holding here for quite some time. some of us are even numb to the catastrophic collapse in sp - at least we are not in the .30’s anymore though it still feels like it.
now, i often read the commentary here to see if/ how sentiment has changed over time beyond the usual polarized camps of ‘mm/bod/tgl are all****** and need shooting to the ‘mm/bod/tgl are all the second coming and saviours of mankind’ and i would really like to get a feel of where posters genuinely think this share is going over the next few months. some allude to a different ‘feel’ as time has gone on and there is always talk of jam tomorrow but tomorrow seems to be a long time coming and in the meantime, other companies have stepped in/up with their own nutrition or beauty offering and as clever as ingenuity is, it hasnt taken the market by storm. capex has been eye watering and still there is always more outflow needed to secure the potential jam.
so here is my question and it is a genuine question …..do we think that the moment has gone - that one time opportunity to seize the day and corner the market or to be an attractive proposition for an other to acquire?
it’s all very well and good saying all announced and unannounced approaches have significantly undervalued the company but when that value is not shown on the balance sheet and when shareholders have seen the destruction of their investment with no apparent action on premium listings or strategic updates as promised, and with the bod not seeming to listen ( as per mm linkedin) or to even care, then surely the time must come when the bod actually put a figure on what they see as the value because clearly no one else sees it.
i’m so tempted to throw in the towel here but i keep saying that surely this state of affairs cannot continue …… it all just seems so extraordinary……
anyhoooo …. be good to get your genuine thoughts and have a good weekend everybody!
Genuine answer. I believe I will get my money back some day. But I am ready and prepared for that to take 3, 5, 10 years if needed. Without a solid capital event I don't see a rapid turn around in sentiment. For context my average sits in the low £1 territory currently. Looking at shares that have been through similar depressions in hindsight they do seem to "randomly" recover for no real reason.
10 years to get your money back!! wow. think how much the capital has lost in inflation over that period, and opportunity cost of better investments
Desert sands for what it’s worth I can tell you I have heard a capital event for one of the divisions is not too far off and this would follow MM numerous comments and the internal actions on the matter .. for transparency I have a considerable holding in THG.
How refreshing to read some considered and measured responses - I appreciate you taking the time and also the courtesy of your replies.
I know I’m not alone in this feeling of being in no man’s land and it isn’t typical for me to prevaricate on a share ….. It’s the fact that there seems to be so much potential here but MM and the BOD Seem to have more of a ‘cut off their nose to spite their face’ agenda rather than take on board even one valid but alternate point of view. We shall see …..
BlueWiley - thank you for sharing that - let’s hope you’re right. We seem to have been saying that for quite some time so let’s just hope this time is different.
Wow kim just sell up and stick all into phoenix group if that's your time horizon. You will double in 7 years on nailed on divi us pretty much nailed on capital growth when I terest rates drop in July
Given risk herein expecting 24 to see big rerate as uk recovers and moulding all but timed out and rapidly becoming a disliked man
All depends on your average I guess. Mines circa 45p as stated previously, so I could look at it as circa 40% profit to date over a couple of years which beats any interest rate I can find. And sure hindsight will say other stocks have done better, but I hadn’t bought them, I bought THG and hindsight is boring :-)
Options are to average down depending on your average, sell out at a loss, or simply hold. Or go and buy something boring like a FTSE stock and some dividends. Already got one of them myself but that’s where majority my money is for the retirement pot. THG was my punt and can’t complain so far, but fully understand others have been in longer.
My opinion, and that’s all it is, is that THG will come good, hence why I haven’t taken the 40% and ran for the hills.
GLA as always in whatever you choose to do. Ps. Filter is your friend on here
@desert, understand your fatigue after what sounds like a long and painful hold. Whilst I haven't heard Wiley's more specific rumour, I remain very confident in my THG investment. I think you will kick yourself if you bail now.
We have to remember that the last 3 years have not been the environment for a capital event conducive with extracting best value for long term shareholders. Market is looking much friendlier now, and MM/Board can't sit on their hands forever. Ingenuity sales disappoint, and until they get more traction, that will cap the upside - but at current share price there is still upside nonetheless. That said, I still believe Ingenuity will deliver in the medium term, as D2C isn't going anywhere, and THG's full service offering (marketing, ecomm, fulfiment) positions them well to capture a slice of that market. Good luck
Ste, to be clear... I consider getting my money back as a worst case outcome. I have plenty of liquidity for other opportunities and don't take unnecessary losses just to chase them elsewhere. Only invest what you can afford to etc.
I've been in from the start and had the opportunity to get out after being in quite a good position but chose to hold. Whilst I really regret that decision, you obviously can't live in hindsight. I realised the losses for tax purposes and re-bought but I've no intention of selling at the moment. I'm confident in the company going forward and feel that they are now on the right track after a rough couple of years. I don't really see a lot of downside here with Ingenuity progressing albeit slowly and the other parts of the business doing well. The best scenario would be a buyout or part thereof but even if that doesn't happen in the short term, I think we will see a steady rise over the next 12-18 months as financial conditions improve. I think we can forget Moulding voluntarily taking a backseat as he's a narcissist but if the numbers can start to make his rants a little more meaningless, maybe we can get somewhere, either that or he loses the support of the 65% and they boot him.
Yes Desert, I'm the same.
I see my money doing well in RR. and MKS and think about selling here at a 12% loss and hoping to make it up there.
But I still think there is value to be released here and will hang on - but if nothing has happened by the AGM I'll be tempted to accept my mistake and move on
PS sent my annual email to IR asking for a hard copy of the Annual Report. Usual lack of response