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FY 2020 is looking increasingly difficult to forecast. There are 3 major developments all completing right at the cusp of FY20/21 -City North,.Balfron Tower and possibly the first completions at Gallions.Stone Studios too just after
Construction progress a major variable here .
Factor in the lack of foward sales , uncertainty surrounding the number of BTR deals it's not surprising that Steffy has come out with a lowball.conservative £25m forecast .for FY19
Safe .to say that the success or otherwise of the sale of the remaining apartments at City North and Balfron Tower having a big impact
CITY NORTH
All but the 12 1 bed apartments have been showcased in Hong Kong. These are all over £500k and due to launch in theUK in September and it will be the first time that owner-occupiers seeking to utilise Help 2 Buy get an opportunity. No reason to believe that these won't go well
However the 2 and 3 beds are all being marketed at well above the £600k threshold, Being offered in Asia with 8% discounts on a list price with prices 4-5% above 2016 launch . So net 3% below 2016 levels !
So not a huge discrepancy for those bought in 2016 .
Cheapest apartment currently being £757K with an astonishing 23 being marketed at £1m +
If they strike anywhere near those figures this development will make a sigificant contribution to profits.Certainly the jewel in the United House portfolio but let's not forget Chrisp Street !
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyn-is-peddling-comfort-food-politics-m0zbjc8jg
will implode if we have a general and Corbyn somehow wins. The radicals are the no dealers, the market hates them and they are close to being in power (but without a parliamentary majority).
I think we would actually get a bounce up if a general was won by Labour in spite of a bunch of hard lefties at the top. IN a strange way they are the new conservatives wishing to turn the clock back on many things the public never really supported (PPP, rail and utility privatization).
As the article says they have not made any radical commitments and after QE and Brexit we live in radical times.
Maybe wishful thinking but I am configured in my ISA to expect that all but a chaotic Brexit is good in the medium and long term. I think we are at peak uncertainty and it is affecting housing sentiment and thus our TEF SP.
great article.
I tend to give more weight to rent levels than affordability of ownership however calculated. If one went on affordability the market for purchasing farms in the UK would collapse completely as yield is only 1% yet onwards and upwards it goes.
Right now rent levels are still rising in TEF's patch which is a sign of rude health.
I expect in the quite long term interest rates will never recover to pre 2007 levels so affordability has permanently changed relative to earnings multiple levels. I'll be surprised to see 2.5% base rates within 10 years never mind 4 or 4.5%. This has doubled affordability for any given income to price ratio.
http://housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/R2018_02_01_How_to_measure_affordability.pdf
Interesting piece!
https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2014/05/04/thomas-pikettys-capital-summarised-in-four-paragraphs
We have passed through a remarkable period of of stability in the post war era and now stormy waters are ahead as income inequality rises and people get restless willing to listen to simple and false solutions to complex problems.
Pre Brexit I bellied London will be the big winner in this changing world. Wealth and high paid workers have to live and work somewhere and this will increasing be concentrated in a few top global cities with very high quality of life and services and excellent business support clusters.
I think in the end Brexit will not damage this long term trend for London too much whatever the Brexit we get. London has achieved critical mass for global services. Restrictive immigration, poor infrastructure, poor schools, higher taxes than our competitors, and unstable government could bring it to a halt but I am an optimist for the UK in general and London in particular. Most tory candidates in favour of unlimited skilled immigration. May was an outlier in her anti immigration policies and rhetoric -and as such very damaging to London PLC and our TEF shares. May was not in this areas a safe pair of hands.
Yes full throttled "democratic socialism" means us TEF investors are all completely screwed unless we are shorting.
I have no doubt COrbyn personally believes in a pretty rigid application of socialism. If I thought he would apply that to the UK if elected I would be out of shares entirely well before any general election. It would be a black swan bigger than all other black swans combined.
However that can never pass Parliament so what we actually would get if Labour elected, even with up to a narrow majority (best case for Labour), is something much tamer. McDonald who is as left as Corbyn, maybe more so, gets this and is out for a second term. That is do popular things in the first and build credibility for bigger things in the second. Call it the socialist two step.
Blair did the centrist two step. A pretty good first term with popular polices (sure start funded by a special levy on recently privatized industry) and then tacked to the center afterwards most spectacularly on Iraq. That is why Blair is person non grata with most Labour activists. He drank the cool aid of power and forgot his base.
So expect lots of CBI pleasing initiatives in the campaign and early years. More borrowing for investment and slightly higher taxes but nothing radical enough to kill the gooses laying the golden eggs.
If you are as a socialist forced to work with capitalism to achieve your objectives you can be quite clear eyed about the trade offs. You have to create a receptive environment for capital to invest, end of.
A "socialist" government might be more credible in explaining those trade offs to stakeholders than a government who appears to "like" capitalism itself and can't be trusted to tax it fully as market conditions allow.
My biggest fear with Corbyn is this Tony Benn "socialism in one country" left over from the 1970's. It is just out of date with modern manufacturing parts value chains and service industry cross national flows. There has not been a good update of socialism for this complex modern economy by any left leaning writer. PIketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century (2013), is great on analyzing what is wrong but short of a vision of what to do.
Neo Marxism has little to say on trans national trading relationships with non socialist states. It may well be that socialist countries will need to have market pricing of all goods and services to be integrated globally which is quite different than the command economy that emerged in the old soviet union.
Corbyn is no thinker though and is not taking advantage of the opportunity to update socialist objectives for the 21st century in a way that the excluded who voted leave in 2016 can recognize as for them. He tries but does not have the raw brain power to do it. I believe the rumours that he hardly reds books. More of a loyal campaigner for other peoples ideas than an author. That is why we don't have "Corbynistm".
https://www.leaseholdknowledge.com/barking-fire-site-is-owned-by-anonymous-investors-in-adriatic-land
"It is not known whether the Barking site was covered in Grenfell Cladding at this stage.
But the owners of freeholds have been asked – in vain – to step in to replace dangerous cladding.
The issue highlights the point that many freeholders, including owners of sites such as this one where very serious events occurs, are simply unknown.
Contrarily, freeholders like Long Harbour have been lobbying against government’s proposed reforms of the leasehold system.
They claim commercial landlords – a loose term also applied to private equity speculators – are the only entities that can be relied upon to be the “responsible long term custodians” of a building.
How can they be responsible if they operate in secret?"
This incident reinforcing the case for institutional ownership with transparent ,responsible landlords with management systems in place
Sorry Rapper - Didn't realise this site was publishing statistics 2 years out of date. Look forward to July 19th for divi.
>The real revolutionaries are the no dealers
Jeremy Corbyn from Wikipedia...
"Ideologically, he identifies himself as a democratic socialist"
Democratic Socialism from Wikipedia....
"Democratic socialists believe that the systemic issues of capitalism can only be solved by replacing the capitalist economic system with socialism, i.e. by replacing private ownership with collective ownership of the means of production and extending democracy to the economic sphere"
>Just my luck when I thought my investment strategy to fund a very comfortable retirement
You can wave goodbye to your shares ISA if Jeremy gets elected.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/07/brexit-strange-death-british-conservatism?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other Just my luck when I thought my investment strategy to fund a very comfortable retirement was gliding along we get a turn in Uk politics to the really radical and I’m not talking only about Corbyn who is timid on much turf. His radical tax plans return the Uk to rates we had in the recent past. The real revolutionaries are the no dealers and in a party nobody expected radicalism. a radical departure was not in the 2916 referendum yet we might really get that. Even an orderly departure from the single market is something thatcher almost certainly have thought stupid. The single market is what it says on the tin .
thank you sain a helpful and welcome confirmation and I can now take my small punt to the beachead!
timmo I think you will find that was for 1917 but thanks anyway for bothering to reply
Well according to TEF's website
https://www.telfordhomes-ir.london/investors/financial-calendar/
06 Jun 2019 Ex dividend date
Hi Rapper,
according to LSE Financial diary for TEF, the x-divi date is 15th June.
could somebody with more sophisticated equipment"and brains!" than me kindly confirm that tef are today quoted xd if so 296p is a good result and for once my post yesterday was happily prophetic and my small punt profitable
The smaller of the 2 buildings is being handed over to Poplar HARCA where 23 apartments for shared ownership are being launched this weekend
https://www.poplarharca.co.uk/rentalproperty/carmen-street
According to thislij the10 shared ownership apartments at Stone Studios is scheduled for Completion Winter 2019
https://www.poplarharca.co.uk/rentalproperty/stone-studio
https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/housing-associations-should-consider-selling-shared-ownership-stock-to-pension-funds-says-savills-61745
In a paper released today, the real estate advisor claimed that demand for shared ownership could rocket 150% when Help to Buy ends in 2023.
I shall be out of my small punt and wading ashore by second lot
Normally already ridden first lot by 5am!!
yes sain all good by the way do you ever sleep posting at 4.50 am! id be surprised if the sp falls by the full 8.5p tomorrow when they go xd so im having a small punt and hoping for a good landing on the Normandy beaches
Yes I agree,a low key the exhibition is taking place in the agents office. They must be hopeful otherwise Hatch Interiors would not be turning up to sell furniture packages
Perhaps TEF are offering them free as part of the incentives
Hatch just another example of companies TEF continue to enjoy excellent working relationships with
I think its the market coming full circle again TEF offering a special deal at discounted prices to get a batch away before setting to on the Help 2 buyer . Hit the ground running.
Good idea as this development is stuffed to the gills with HPI .The important thing is to get them away especially with the stack at Gallions they have to shift
This is what they did with Liberty where if you recall they had go the majority of the 1 bedders away before they launched in the UK
I guess as its the third phase it gets around the informal agreement that apartments must be first offered to UK Residents
First completions apparentlly in November in the Linear Building ,Cylinder February and Rectangle March
So it's a race against the clock again to see how many fall into this financial year..The last completions scheduled for May
This is a fantastic important development and likely to be highly profitable .TEF can be rightly proud of
However they were out in Hong Kong in March maybe laying some early markers down
Steffy becoming a wily old fox keeping a few tricks under his sleeve !
https://twitter.com/Hatch_Interiors/status/1105498332305199104
Fun and games in LBTH complying with this one !!
https://www.propertyweek.com/news/councils-to-be-required-to-report-cil-deals-with-developers/5102973.article
Bit of a surprise. It was only last week that JDS said that TEF were not targeting individual investors and that no overseas launches were planned following the Galliards experience. I assume this is low key and led by the agents. Let's hope that they unearth some interest.
By the way, did anyone else pick up on the suggestion JDS made in response to a question from an analyst that TEF might be prepared to get involved in the letting or management of BTR apartments - something that TEF have always avoided like the plague? I assume that comes on the back of detailed feedback from institutional investors. Very different risk profile, so maybe something to talk about at the AGM.