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The premium offered to investors may not seem awe-inspiring – in line with forecast book value at the March 2021 year-end, according to Canaccord Genuity, or 1.05 times book value at the end of March this year. That is below a sector average multiple of 1.4, but that reflects the portfolio’s still considerable weighting towards the higher-priced London residential development market, which has been worst affected by slowing sales. Given the depressed valuations being applied to housebuilders across the sector, it seems likely that more takeover activity will follow. Await documents.
Personally, I'm not so sure. Could there be those (US-based or UK-based) who would consider a defensive bid to stop CBRE getting TEF? Could TEF's portfolio appeal to Berkeley? Might Crest Nicholson even have a look? The "London" bit might be a bit of a hurdle given their recent decision to exit the central area, but the build-to-rent focus fits.
It will be interesting to follow the 8.3's and establish what, if anything, the institutions are doing. Will Octopus acquire more, sell down or stay put? That might give an indication as to which way the wind's blowing.
Personally I'm now thinking about selling a proportion to take advantage of the current premium to the offer price, but keeping most while I wait to see how things develop.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2019/07/03/challenged-telford-homes-recommends-cbre-bid/ 75% of shareholders need to approve the takeover according to IC. The board said it had considered “the longer-term structural reduction in profit margins inherent with the move to be more focused on Build to Rent”. While the Build-to-Rent market is less capital-intensive than the London residential development market, this would take time to be reflected in the group’s trading performance, management said, and risks from a slowdown in the Buy to Let and owner-occupied market persisted.
Discussions with investors had also revealed that Telford would be required to take longer-term equity stakes in developments and become more involved in the management and leasing of rental properties, which could require additional financing.
The offer – which requires 75 per cent of shareholders to accept – has already received irrevocable undertakings representing 3.86 per cent of the group’s share capital. GLA
I'm afraid they also stick the boot in somewhat. Front page of the business section. Article talks about shareholder dissatisfaction with the price, but concludes with:
"The shares weren't bouncing back anytime soon. Telford's relatively high debts and new business model make rival bids unlikely, too. So, sorry shareholders, but this bid looks as good as it gets."
Yes ex dividend we have bourne the pain of changing focus to an IPRS provider and someone else wi see the benefit not us
We have paid the transformation costs with nothing to show for it.
"What’s to understand. They may play very little part in Telford future. While 2227 is correct in that we are only worth what someone will pay I am shocked at this valuation "
Well bearing in mind that both these goldplated companies with access to vast capital resources with a BOD sanctioned policy to increase their exposure to BTR its hardly likely that they have committed to form a partnership with TEF to sit on their hands !
We have yet to find out what someone is prepared to pay for TEF as they have not to my knowledge been openly marketing themselves
I take the view if they did that there will be a number of interested parties which might reveal that valuation is well undercooked No doubt that this will be revealed shortly
I am furious with the BOD's. Each and every one of their names will go in my black book and I will have to think very seriously before I put a penny to work with any of these charlatans again.
CBRE are simply taking advantage of the Brexit issue and using loose change to buy a perfectly fine business at a discount of around 50%. All house builders SP's are suppressed at the moment, but once the Brexit fiasco is resolved, I would expect to see TEF share price at around £7.00.
There is no way I will vote for this deal. I hope the institutions feel the same and send CBRE back over the pond with their tail between their legs.
As a PS I would have been quite happy with 17p dividend for two or three years until the whole Brexit mess was settled. As it is things will improve and none of us will reap the rewards of trusting this company.
What’s to understand. They may play very little part in Telford future. While 2227 is correct in that we are only worth what someone will pay I am shocked at this valuation. Distasteful to me is the number of updates recently and over the years plus section on the website encouraging investors which all point to a rosy future yet now the rug has well and truly been pulled. Technically JDS made factual statements. Updates suggest that decisions were for Telford's future. What he, Andrew and Katie forgot to mention was they were in negotiations to screw their investors. The website still has the case for investing. Not cool Jon not cool. The people I once knew had more about them than this betrayal.
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Aynsley Lammin, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said: “We expect the cash offer to be approved by shareholders in the context of the current market conditions and outlook, and given that more financial and operational resources are likely to be required to be competitive in the [build-to-rent] market in London as the market evolves.”
Looks like the whole world is conspiring to get his deal across the line Which bit about the deep pockets of M&G and Invesco don't they understand
Two weeks? We'll see.
Let's wait a couple of weeks and see what happens .we have heard your opinions before like Redrow at 700p and them soon joining the ftse 100
Some people like to mislead themselves till the end.
The market says different
Yes understand your frustration starting to side with Exdividend here .First time I have felt that Directors and shareholders interests aren't fully aligned
Its ironic they spent over a year dithering over selecting some BTR partners but hastily recommend what is not a very attrarctive offer without first testing the market .There would be a queue of buyers .Their experince is invaluable Looking down the list apart from Steffy and Wisey the others have very little skin in the game
Fitzgerald already had to sell a chunk for the divorce and Jerry newly arrived with SFA but a shedful of share options and a career to look after
I agree Wisey's statement trying to justify the unjustfiable to look out for the old school
Absolute steal for TC from across the ponds walk straight into the profits being harvested on NGQand the HPI filled to the brim City North
Numbers
As for you get a back in your box
if this cash bid goes through I would welcome your ideas for reinvestment. on a wider note ihave had great pleasure in following the insightful and often witty comments on this posting board and wish you all well. hope it can continue
Sain
The Furlong family plus chairman have reasonable holding together and I reckon were chief influence in to day's capitulation
I read chairman's statement and sounded very hollow.
'Take the money and run'
As a shareholder I feel cheated and short changed.
If you look at my last posting I had totally lost faith in co and especially chairman.
I had 210k shares between ISA and ordinary shares. I sold 60% over last 12 months and it was only CGT that stopped me selling all.
Sad for ISA holders as they have on redress for losses and a shabby way to treat shareholders.
I hope a counter bid comes forward but who knows.
Will pick up a few Inland Homes as I think they will also be taken over.
There were some wonderful posters on here including yourself, who I learned a lot from so thank you.
Best of luck
TEF is not worth a penny more than what CBRE have offered. The usual posters here simply had no clue about the value of this company.
"Being part of Trammell Crow Company will allow Telford Homes to enhance its growth in the build to rent / multifamily market in London.
However only a few months ago he said with the announcement of the new strategic partnerships he had already achieved that
...."The opportunity to de-risk our future pipeline with reduced capital investment give us confidence that these partnerships will help accelerate our aim to deliver a significant increase in our output of build to rent homes across London."
The arrival of Trammell Crow on the scene is going to fundamenetally alter those relationships They are just picking TEF up on the cheap Makes no sense
Very disappointing for the likes of investors like me who are investing in the long run in our isa,s
That is less than the average of all my isa purchases since 2012
Feel the value is far from mature and this is a fire sale price at a low point
Very short term thinking
"CBRE are going to have to dig a lot deeper"
Wishful thinking.
The Directors ,family and friends do not have a majority shareholding here The majority of the BODS have very few shares less than 5% ,the majority of those by Wisey where retirement beckons
Plenty of shareholders will be unhappy I wonder what Octopus are thinking ?
CBRE are going to have to dig a lot deeper
recommended cash acquisition of the entire issued and "to be issued ordinary share capital"
Directors getting 350p for their options too?
"The boards of CBRE Group, Inc. ("CBRE") and Telford Homes Plc ("Telford Homes") are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash acquisition of the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Telford Homes by CBRE "
What's interesting is that there is no mention of "irrevocable undertakings" or even "letters of intent" from major shareholders to vote for the deal. Normally the bidder would want to announce some institutional support, not just the directors' support.
So might it be reasonable to assume the major shareholders at this point aren't convinced? But can they find a deep-pocketed white knight?