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TEF occupied almost a unique position in London at the crossover. The move to BTR a very sensible one to milk the demand for all its worth until the market dictates shifting emphasis back to the owner-occupier.
Mount Anvil is the nearest but they are of course not listed.Maybe now is the right opportunity for them to do so!
Anyone have any ideas beyond the majors?
yes I'd like to join your forum.
A temporary email is enclosed.
stephkhazaniblabaloo@gmail.com
Please send joining instructions.
I am now a TEF refugee. I was gong to hold TEF in my ISA for 15 to 20 years and let it form at least 1/3rd of my retirement income. Now I have to do something else. Quite irritated I am forced out at a price just below my average by-in price since I was stocking up in my ISA 2012 onwards. For all that risk and sacrifice all I've made is the dividend income. I was expecting after a dire 5 years SP wise we were about to get 5 good years.
UK banks look cheap but I am weary. They are not printing money as they used to and all around the world Banks have flat lined -even Goldmans and HSBC never mind the likes of the Germans. UK builders have risks but upside at these SP's. Whole oil and minerals extraction sector intrinsically risky as new technologies of extraction and new commercially viable discoveries due to new technologies of exploration come to bear. I put a tiny bit of money in Carbo ceramics which supply propants to the fracking industry (once you frack you need to shove something in to keep the crack open so the "tight" oil and gas can flow (Good propant worth 20% of a well cost so lots of margin if you have the IP) but it tanked for reasons I don't know. Tech very high priced. Renewables a growth area but lots of churn and risk.
I rather liken my bet on the London housing market pre Brexit as London as a global hub for business and financial services benefited by money being made somewhere in the world regardless of the country, technology or sector. It is a bit like supplying shovels, picks, pans and food during the gold rush. You make great money off all the miners regardless of whom in turn finds any gold. With TEF I was primed to make steady money off an overheated housing market that was the byproduct of the globalization of business and financial service elite companies and self perpetuating skills concentrations.
I really don't know where to go from here. Temporarily I am now mostly in Crest but as Crest is not trying hard to grow it has limits. Also I don't like the size of the non London weighting in the pipeline nor the tendency to develop in suburban locations that require a car trip to a local employer rather than a link to a central London bound rail station and thus London's deeper jobs market. TEF for the next 15 years was a near perfect fit for me.
It does look as if everybody wants out for whatever reason .
Steffy's half-hearted attempt to justfy the sale on the grounds of the offer being a fair and reasonable one doesn't wash Furthermore adding that CBRE have the resources to drive the BTR propositon .Steffy of course has spent the last 12 month successfully securing 2 goldplated partners to do exactly that
Cambers departure as a result of the pivotal change to BTR when there is of course plenty of private sales to take care of
All very much sounding like an end of an era.Thanks very much for the cheque and Good night
Hi Strictly
Shame about tef, I avoided them cos Aim and mainly London Based. Same reason I don't touch crst and bkgh (London) but prefer bkgh to crst. Made good money out of bkgh but out now.
Bit worried about rdw cos chairman, Steve Morgan has retired. Also still a major share holder (which he might sell).
He took over his Father's (little plumbing) business and turned it into a National Building Coy. Last time he retired Sp went south until he started taking more control of his company.
Totally agree with value idea, and from this point of view Imho psn the best value by far, due to the serious -ve media publicity.
Rel Price when 04/01/19 = 100 and last date 05/07/19:
psn = 96, tw = 114, bdev - 121, bwy = 105, rdw = 109
What is more important is the new psn Ceo has addressed the issues and results are already emerging - see last Trading RNS. Bdev and tw have far more cash than bwy and rdw which justifies a higher rating, and created their momentum (from the deluded market).
A House price crash is built into the Sp for all these 5 Coys (due to Brexit) which simply won't happen. I have explained the reasons why I think this on tw and psn boards
But psn has far more cash and margin than both of them.
Very best of luck to you Tef holders, don't know if its a Done Deal or maybe a new offer comes in of 500.
Last point, management seems to have sold out a bit quick?
Steph,
"I've started to sell up TEF and diversify into Strictly's builders 3. Crest, BWY and RDW. "
...............................
I haven't been on here for a while, and haven't scrolled back, but I have just seen your comment above...
I've probably mentioned it before on here but you're welcome to join the blog I started several years ago that some of the regulars here (including musketeers!) have joined and have participated in the discussion there because, as the name implies, it focuses on the house building sector as a whole looking for best value rather than any one company and this may now be of more direct interest to you....? (having said that, I'm intending that my next blog post is all about Telford...)
I came completely out of Telford straight after the trading figures.... I may have called it right value-wise given that this was underlined, I feel, by this offer for the company, but at the same time I was fairly well stuffed by the market as I took a low price compared to what it is now having given the value weighting a sharp downgrade straight away such to make the share more expensive in value terms than others such as Redrow and Bellway (rather more so than Crest currently).
But such is life.... that's something I have to live with (that nutter, the market, I mean...) if I'm to always pursue perceived best value (the key word being "perceived" - because I certainly don't always get that right).
Redrow aren't big on giving out trading updates, so we may have to wait until their full year figures, but even if we go with the scribblers' EPS forecasts (and they're traditionally under), Redrow are on for a return on equity of over 22%.
And on a current PBV, by my reckoning, of 1.13, I don't see how that can be anywhere near fully valued...?
But in the end, value, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder to some degree, isn't it?
So we all have to call it for ourselves, and you only have to click on the share chats here for some of the other house builders to see what a diverse range of opinions there is out there..!
Strictly
My understanding is that the BOD will not be able to discuss the CBRE bid so I cant see the point in going as all other matters are somewhat superfluous to that.
Can't make AGM. Hope you or strictly will go and raise a few tough questions.
Was in central London for a few hours yesterday due to a missed connection. Wonderful city. Wish I could make a London play on the market. BKG just too low a yield. I liked TEF's yield. Not to hot and not too cold. I note Crest is disinvesting in London and only aiming for quite modest growth of 3 or 4% pa. SO not an exact fit for me but the best out there. The Crest 9.3% yield makes up for many flaws.
DC now confirmed leaving at the end of the August .It is almost as if shareholders have no say in this as they are railroading the deal through What will DC's total entitlement be in a Golden Goodbye
Steph..are you going to the AGM on Thursday?
There is a chance of a counter offer from someone. Timing is very tight though -deliberately so. TEF senior staffers have their hands tied to help a rival bid now so it would have to be "hostile". I'd give it a 10% chance of a counter bid coming in.
Whole thing set up to benefit CBRE, and maybe senior TEF staffers, but not us. If interested in selling why not advertise that possibility more openly? In public TEF have been actively discouraging take over speculation. All the fingerprints of a sweetheart deal for CBRE.
For my money I am resigned to this and starting to transition out. I'll vote against this with whatever I have at the time but I don't hold out hope for a reversal.
Terrace No they dont but completions do ! CBRE banking on it ! Since the confidnetiality agreement was signed at the beginning of the May completion monies have been flowing in on Bow Plenty at Liberty , a few at Manhattan and now a torrent arriving in form New Garden Quarter
In addition final payments and profit apyment on the BTR at Upton Park arriving soon and same rules apply on Carmen Street
Nice work if you can get it
"CBRE has put in place a bridge acquisition facility for purposes of confirming that resources are available to fully satisfy the offer to Telford shareholders, as required by applicable UK takeover rules, but intends to fund the acquisition through a combination of cash on hand and availability within its revolving credit facility."
Plaudits don't pay Bill's.
TEF amongst the fianlists for one award Best Regneration in the October HOUSEBUILDER AWARDS
https://www.house-builder.co.uk/events/housebuilder-awards-2019/?pk_campaign=newsletter_1060
Maybe a special award The Cutting Your Arm Off Award for Deal of the Year ,Currently there is a shortlist of 1- CBRE
Can only hope this is a timing issue and potential suitors found out on the same day we did. Brings in the question of who approached who and when. If TEF approached various parties then that would have confirmed by now and if it was CBRE, presumably introduced by a n other ( Greystar?), then why agree and support an offer that undervalues what we were told was a very bright future.
agree with all that so where are the counter offers?.
I will vote against at this price.
Contrary to my previous thoughts I can see the sense of other bidders investing the time to compete. Not saying there will be but at a higher price the BOD may prefer another UK based company and reject CBRE. US work culture is very different to that of the UK and however the future company is structured there would probably be more options for senior management to stay long term.
There should be enormous value added the years of contacts and relationships in London starting back in Furlong days. Add in the new relationships, Greystar, M&G , Invesco and have we forgotten Goodwill. Seems to me potential suitors would cut off the proverbial to pay a premium for such a unique and probably unrepeatable situation. Yet we are accepting ‘ fair and reasonable’. CBRE may not value the Greystar benefit in the same way if they already have dealings in the US.
These relationships have a significant premium demanding value.
As for DC I get it in the short term. He probably doesn’t want to pass up opportunities over the next couple of years transition. However when a fudged Brexit deal finally happens won’t the pent up demand and chronic shortage factors come in to play. Five years down the line won’t the Telford model be even stronger adding private sales back to the bright future of IPRS.
Are any posters here intending to vote in favour of the CBRE offer on 6 August?
I really don' t know the housing markets outside London . All sounds a bit like an Orwellian Wigam Pier cloth cap and well worn boots sort of landscape to me -at least until you get to Edinburgh.
I prefer a pure London mid market play but now with TEF out (or nearly out) I have no natural home. Might not even finish topping up my ISA allowance to 20k max this year.
Birmingham is just starting to cool Disappointing launch so far of Sherbourne Wharf for Crest In Central Brum
hats off to strictly. I was over concentrated in TEF as a long term ISA play. What use is the long term perspective and a relatively stingy but growth friendly delayed gratification dividend policy if we are being screwed over for a meagre 3.5 SP bid? BODS completely lost their bottle on this. I'll be very cross if I find out they were given golden hellos to the new structure. Conflict of interest.
I feel betrayed by TEF management. Even 4 quid might have been a defensible position. 4.5 maybe they would have been obliged to recommend to us "minnows". But 3.5?? Are they serious??
I've started to sell up TEF and diversify into Strictly's builders 3. Crest, BWY and RDW. Of the 3 I am weighted towards Crest. All have yields above 5% right now but Crest is over 9%. All near 5 year lows in SP but growing volume. Basically a bet on the UK market blues being temporary. Birmingham and Manchester seems to have some pixie dust. Not London quantities but for a smaller growing builder profits to be made.
Also a bet that Boris as PM will not be as facile as he seems most of the time. Hate the politics but we would not have these buy in prices unless there was some chaos at the top. 10 years from now being long on the sector will probably look like a very wise move. Right now it is a roller coaster for us all.
I'd rather have a more London focus to my builders 3. TEF was perfect for me in that way. I could invest in BKG but don't like the yield and feel they are not trying t expand.
Extract from 2013 Report.What's changed?
London is the right place to be developing with a robust microeconomy, an international reputation, a fantastic transport network
and a significant shortage of homes when compared to current
demand let alone future population growth. These fundamentals
are there for the long term and this gives us confidence in setting
a strategy that calls for doing more of the same, increasing output
and growing the business over the next few years.
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/to-rent/details/52000412?search_identifier=b5e692a2bacc1b8b87e6833e45ece628
First completions are just taking place at the end of July at NGQ.Here is one just added to rent . CBRE timing their entry to perfection .Monies from over 150 completions which will be something over £80m sluicing back in through the doors
No wonder CBRE have only had to arrange a Bridging Loan . We have been done up like a kipper
As Exdividend flagged up DC wont be the only departure.I reckon Odds on that Steffy will be off too
Must be an ideal candidate to launch a BTR programme on Urban & Civic's vast landholdings for BTR having worked there as a non -exec . They must be both impressed with each other
Does that mean that private sales are unlikely to be a significant part of TEF future when that market improves?,
Well spotted James. Sounds that DC was the turkey that voted for Xmas taking one for the team but guess the exit terms are favourable with cashing in the options
Best of luck to him .Just seems such a tragic waste of a company which has straddled the private/public sector is disassembling in a dash for cash .Selling out to those across the pond who can spot a bargain when they see it .The words if it ain't broke don't fix it springs to mind ,Surely however there are plenty of private sales to be dealing with Gallions, City North,Balfron Tower whose success or otherwise will be important.
All very unsatisafactory