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I've been hoping that would declare their intentions but given it's getting close to DD day re voting through your brokers or Friday deadline for all votes it's not looking likely ?
and the half year report was prepared before the strategic review was completed, following which there was a slowdown in operations to preserve cash, which is why, I recall, they have sufficient to see them through end of April
On my calendar there are 28 days between 3rd and 31st March. You're suggesting that nothing can be achieved in four weeks. Qatar could fund this in about four minutes, if they wanted to.
Which I would imagine is why QSI previously offered a bridging loan and may do again to protect their bond and shareholding if there is a no vote
Wholeheartedly agree Pianista
"If there honestly were anywhere close to 85k PIs left, this thing would be flying. It takes a couple of mins to complete and there is no obligation.
I would in fact argue that the site is counter productive since any prospective investor would actually look at it and see only minimal PI support".
But I suspect only a small proportion of PIs even know about the fundsirius website. How many of "the 85,000" are keeping in touch through this BB, for example? If you extrapolate the interest already shown across the whole PI population, it is substantial, not minimal.
not according to the last half year report on 17 Sept last year -
“The Group will need to secure additional external financing in order to allow it to continue operations after 31 March 2020.”
im not in finance but id say it will be pretty hard to deliver an alternative between 3 Mar and 31 Mar.
I recall funds were available to meet costs through end of April. The vote is on 3rd March. There is time to put plan b in place, not much time, but there is time.
agree on Odey. they dont give a monkies about LTHs. there in at 5 ish so not in same boat. great if they force a rise but doubt they are saviours of hopes
im not sure id be basing my investment decisions on the rumours of the evening standard! the thing about this being to big to fail for instos is a non starter to my mind. they are unlikely to get a choice because the board will just panic and call administrators. amazing what the threat of people coming after your own assets will do to decision making.
the fund sirius work is great but is any insto going to take it credibly ? have those pledging got the funds to back it up and what if they change there mind ? remember we are running out of time massively. id have more confidence if it was at +£100-200 m at this stage
To a raise at 10p most sensible investors would’ve said, I don’t like it but I understand it. Now I’ll make a smaller profit and have a smaller dividend but at least I’ll still make a profit and receive a dividend.
What were being offered is a long way from that.
But if AAL pick this up at the expense of shareholders they will not ever have an easy ride. Disgruntled shareholders will attempt to sabotage and object to the build at every turn.
AAL have significantly underestimated local sentiment imo. They could’ve picked up a majority stake and kept the required debt off their bookS, and had a passive investment that someone else could’ve run, where they could’ve exited their investment with much greater flexibility by selling shares over a long period of time ( they probably could’ve sold enough on the rise post funding to be in for about a third of the company for free).
But instead the greedy bastards want the whole lot and to stiff us all.
Let’s see what happens next. I think they may have been a tad too greedy.
I agree with your post/assessment Truthfactory
Tex, I’m fairly sure the Qataris could find someone to run it. If not directly, through the regular recruitment channels. I pointed out recently that their massive infrastructure project they’ve been undertaking to host World Cup 2024 probably sees them well placed to find someone to run the Sirius build. I’m sure there are many qualified candidates that would be more than capable and would make themselves available for this undertaking.
True Calamari, that’s most likely.
TRue that was reported LTV.
However, it is not even a rounding error to them, their total portfolio is $300bn plus so a fraction of a %.
The question is therefore would they want to underwrite a mining project and who would they get in to run it? This is not their normal caper.
Again, I would suggest the website reflects some link to an II or similar, and ‘spells out they plan’. Plus there is no mention of CF going, which is clearly a prohibitor to many pledging.
Tex, according to the Evening Standard, QIA have already floated the idea of a bridging loan. Rounding error or not their $140M investment is significant and not something I think they would want to write off. You can make the counter argument that funding of $600M is also a rounding error for those guys. They could turn that rounding error into several BILLION on production. Several Billion is not a rounding error for anyone.
“ I'm not sure the institutions heavily invested in this - bonds and shares - will let this fall into administration.”
I think their investment is a rounding error to their overall value and portfolios.
More likely that a new investor comes along rather than trying to persuade the old ones to stump up more. However, personally I see that as very unlikely (could be wrong though).
If the purpose of the survey is to entice a new II to underwrite the cash raise then this needs to be specified on the page ASAP. As I said over three weekend, it’s still not clear to me what the purpose of that website is. It doesn’t seem more than a polling mechanism and currently we just seem to be seeing a repeat of the signing of the petition, no one is interested in doing it. Still not even 10% pledged.
If there honestly were anywhere close to 85k PIs left, this thing would be flying. It takes a couple of mins to complete and there is no obligation.
I would in fact argue that the site is counter productive since any prospective investor would actually look at it and see only minimal PI support.
If a no vote happens (which I think it will) then it will be a higher offer to get Odey on board or admin.
If it’s admin then hundreds will lose their jobs and the local area will lose all the associated investment from the mine. CF will just lose his £10k and just go and find another Exec role. PIs lose all their money in Sxx.
I am already thinking to the next vote against a revised offer of 7p or certain admin. What will people do then?
There - a contrarian view for debate to bring some balance back.
Calamari, because after two more years of construction the higher risk elements will be completed, close to 2 billion would be in the ground in equity, and the resource will have been accessed, meaning some income.
So raising debt to fund the remining 2 billion for lower risk construction - either above ground construction or fit out of tunnels and shafts - ought to be straightforward. The risk profile will be lower because of the type of construction and because the company will be producing and also because the banks will have far greater security in terms of the construction progress and the amount put into the ground ie Loan to Value (LTV) just like the mortgage on your house.
The campaign to raise the £460m required is now well underway.
Shareholders can protect their shares buying bonds which pay healthy interest in the proposal
Please visit the web site, take the survey and tell everyone
Open to everyone not just shareholders. www.FundSirius.com
Pwh - I don't see a no vote as throwing money (what little there is left) away. Quite the opposite. I see a yes vote as throwing away any remaining opportunity to recoup the losses by keeping the company in current hands thereby participating in the upside that will result from delivering the project.
I also see the likelihood of a rescue post a no vote as possible, though appreciate it comes with risk of administration. I'm not sure the institutions heavily invested in this - bonds and shares - will let this fall into administration.
I think the www.fundsirius.com counter will continue to tick upwards. Hopefully that'll give one of the II's the comfort and confidence to step forward with a temporary funding solution that will give time for a more permanent solution to be worked out - with replacing Fraser and some of his cronies forming part of the solution, as well as funding.
thanks fred. i agree its not a nice position to be in. i personally dont see there will be other options than admin. if you look at whos on the Bod - lodge is a former senr accountant, Hutton a Minister, Clark a ftse CEO, Harwarth is probably the most experienced. these guys and girls will know the risks of potentially trading whilst insolvent so if they say were basically going into admin if this fails then i believe them.
one way or other I think our investment is coming to an end. im holding because there a small chance of a slightly better offer right to the end. any increase would be meaningful to me
As Kenneth Williams said:
infamy infamy they've all got it infamy.
night night.
Your just too understanding. This isn't the time to see the good in people. There are just too many fockers out there.
I wish us luck, we are gonna need it
Hello Pwh31, I’m sorry you’ve been invested in Sirius for so long and will lose money apart from losing the chance of being part of the success I’m sure the project will be. For me I think the yes vote is so final in that that will definitely be the end of my investment. A no vote might mean that other options arise. It is however not an easy decision and we all have to think very carefully. It is not a nice position for SH’s to be in when most of us have given our full support to the company in what was supposed to be a LT investment