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Hi Volcano - These red then blue, then red then blue days offer up opportunities.
Yep saw your post over on HFD this morning. Been watching over there since a trade on its recent run up. I wondered if perhaps the last 3 months trading was likely to be as good as has been painted. The forward guidance was always likely to be uncertain, and the phrase regarding the potential forward selling of cycles, stuck in my mind, to me it suggested less bike sales as the year moves on. Though 7.5p or 1.60 ovér there gives up 5%.
I got close to BOO this afternoon but held off as maybe tomorrow may offer a better price. KIV SDRY results are out Thurs, so it could be fun and games over there.
I'd add a couple of possibles that'll be keeping an eye on - TPT if the spread is tight, and CPI on price, both for a bounce back if it's a blue day.
Both STOB & TLW offer 5% for 1.5 - 1.6p, what's not to like.
The hour between 7.00 am - 8.00 am flys by, I'll be looking back at the US close and Asian markets overnight, with the likely FTSE 100 futures position, checking covid news, and rns's, and factoring in any numpty comments that Politicans throw into the mix.
So many choices.
gla
G
wow that can not be good.
BBC NEWS
Coronavirus: Airborne transmission cannot be ruled out, WHO says
TF - yep, possible break clause Apl 2023, should the franchise agreement not be renewed in Dec 2022.
The position has merely reverted to pre Connect days.
Much water will pass under the bridge, in the intervening time.
In the short term its important to get the Energy Division, revenues back to previous levels. STOB can as is the case with many Companies only deal with issues over which it has some measure of control.
gla
G
G
My comments on MCRO Share Chat this morning diapered,hhmm i wonder why. i am out anyway.
no trade for me here today maybe tomorrow.
Volcano - agreed it's a bit choppy out there. Will take a look later, to see the direction of travel. Tomorrow is another day and another opportunity
G
I got my 5% on MCRO this morning and still going up, but i am happy with my lot and i am done for today.
Hi Spoon...I'm not allowed to give any ideas on specific target price as I will get in trouble with the band of eternal optimists lead by Gerry (lol)...the sad reality is the whole airline and holiday sector is in a dire mess..fixed overheads for such businesses are massive, so debts can quickly spiral out of control (hence the huge cash call at discounted 40p) and despite that the market is not impressed hence SP sitting at 31p...very risky bet here even down into low teens...I'll be sitting on the side-lines until at least sub 10p...even then that could b risky in my opinion...this may bounce up on the odd day but the trend is definitely negative unless it becomes a takeover target or broken up. Adyor!
Thanks for the reply, I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for news that could sway me on various shares but I cant get the niggly feeling out of my head that we are heading for another big fall in share prices along the board! Companies are starting to release results that are going to show how much devastation has been caused and job losses are incoming along with those already lost, the furlough scheme has only kick it down the road but it cant go on forever and the economny will not pick up enough to rectify the issues companies are going to have thus job losses.
I stupidly bought back into IAG yesterday which I feel could be one of my worst decisions yet! I've been looking at gold and other metal shares but not so sure about which to take a punt in and again I still think we will have another crash.
I read a few posts about people sick of reading all the doom and gloom posters which surprises me as surely they can see we are heading into some very choppy waters? Are they realy oblivious to whats actually going on around them? I understand investors who own shares dont want to read the bad stuff as they dont want to think about their share going down but some realy do need to oped their eyes to what could actually happen as its not all fine and dandy now the lockdown is ending (For now) I also understand the point that we get derampers for whatever their motive BUT are those who only see the positives especially in these times imo coudl be defined as rampers as they only post positive info and not a balanced viewpoint thus possibly giving some other investor a bad piece of info?
Good morning ,
Looks like markets are going sideways today not a lot out there except BOO.
Morning Moni - just popped on to say I fully agreed with your two posts last night on HFD, and your change in stance from your buy recommendation when it was sitting at £2.40 some months back. High street retail is facing huge issues. I think you said you managed to average down over there, on the previous recovery, a month or so back, I also traded it on the rise, and made a few pennies. Good to see we sometimes see things in a similar light. I'd say there may be some future day trades to pick up over there, so am keeping track of it.
So many sectors facing challenges three that Spring to mind are retail, hospitality and airlines. Not to say money can't be made by trading.
Turning to Airlines, I don't disagree with your latest post here. Though you may wish to broaden your concerns for the industry and warn those PI's on RYA/EZJ/TUI/ DTG /IAG, of the "dire mess". Why is it you only want to save STOB holders from impending doom lol ? After all STOB is only a small fish in the great scheme of things, think of how many others you could save if you put your mind to it. Emmm.
G
Moni - I'm breaking this post up, as Sillyman ( Sandyman) can't cope with anything over a paragraph or two - poor soul that he is.
I'm not concerned with your share predictions, that's your choice, it's always helpful, if as you have this time backed up your position with some info, so thanks for that.
It may be you have read some of my recent posts or even the 4th June rns or looked on the STOB website, yet again I find myself in agreement with you - strange times. Though may be not too strange as the BOD have stated their strategy :
Dump the Rails and Civils Division on anyone asap
Get the Energy Division back up to pre covid monthly tonnes pm, then monetise it for share holder value. By which my take is a sale or buy in.
Long term focus on Southend. ( Where the previous buy in offer was scuppered by the virus ).
I seeyou have slightly upped your previous "buy"ecommendation at 5p to a more bullish "sub 10p entry" you want to tread carefully my friend or you'll be seen as a ramper lol.
Trading volumes are light here this week, making day trades tricky. Am thinking that a drop into the 20's may get some action, will deffo be fun. Like everyone I very much like buying my shares cheap, then finding someone who'll buy them at a higher price. We all want to make a profit whether we day trade or hold for gold.
G
Moni - last part - so "Sillyman" can keep up.
I think we'll be debating STOB for many months to come. It's got it's cash raise, much better imv to tackle covid up front, as opposed to delaying matters with Govt. Loan schemes, which have stringent terms attached both as to terms and repayment.
Not much likely to come in the form of news flow until the interims on the end of August are posted in Nov. They will not read great how can they we are already 4 moths into H1 - the key will be how quickly the Energy Division revenues recover. Remember no div costs, and very low cap ex planned this year.
On an aside turning to TOSCA, ( STOB's major shareholder ). They have increased their holding to 174.79m shares (27.97%).
Been buying since January this year. Presently their holding is valued at £55m.
Did you know they have actually paid a total of £122m for their holding.
They are down £67m !!
You might want to write an open letter to their investors lol.
Wonder what it is they see in STOB, surely they have a duty of care to their investors to create value for them.
Gla
G
I'll keep it brief..yes lots of valid points. Time will tell if Stob survives without another cash call unless it gets broken up....then value may be had.. As for retail I think it's in a perilous place and he likes of Amazon are an ever present danger to all retailers big and small...Adyor GL..
spoon_key - agree with much of what you say - we are heading for a winter of discontent.
Been reading your chats over on CINE, places I'll avoid for the time being, - Planes, trains, buses, taxis's, Cinemas. Shopping Malls, pubs and restaurants, and cafes. I'm not looking to be a covid volunteer for at least July and August. Will review matters in September.
It's - beers on the Green for my mates and I atm, both Holiday's have been cancelled this year.
You may have missed a fair chunk of the Gold run up - during March and April. I bought into AAZ and TSG, and traded HGM back in the spring many gold shares were absolute bargains - eg :
AAZ - was available in the 80's
TSG - was available in the 40's
I picked up both of those.
PAF - was available at sub 10p
HUM - was available at sub 20p
I did a couple of trades on HGM, and to me it still is worth picking up on dips.
If you accept that the pod cast chats are to designed up sell their Companies then check out Crux Investor if it's a site you don't already use - the interviews are well worth a watch, you'll find most Co's have updates on there.
gla
G
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/
There may well be more up ticks as Gold continues its steady rise.
G
Moni - you have the right of it regarding retail and the high street.
In my town, we have just lost an independent travel agent, though the owner is continuing to trade from home, giving up the office.
We have lost our TOFS this week.
Only half of our pubs have re opened, so far, the landlords of my local have advised us they are handing back the keys., they are personal friends.
Our independent camping and outdoor store is on its way too.
We already had many empty units prior to covid.
Not sure how the Chancellor's £1,000 “job retention bonus” for employers that bring workers back from furlough will pan out.
Over recent years, many retailers have looked to alter contract hours for staff. apart from management, the days of a full 36 + weekly contract in retail are becoming something of a rarity.
Employers have found it more flexible to employ 3 people on P/T flexible contracts, rather than one full time member of staff. It makes rotas easier, and also keeps many staff below the 16 hours a pw threshold.
So should retailers bring those P/T staff back off furlough, they will likely fall below the £520 pm level, as most are on £8.72 ph or lower depending on their age, and therefore won't qualify, under the latest scheme. So no benefit there to the retail business, as regards the £1k bonus available in Feb 2021.
If the footfall isn't there by the autumn, it will be a brave retailer that brings back all staff.
G
Gerry,
It won't be all doom and gloom, there will be winners out there, we just have to spot them early and cling on to them , LOL.
Volcano - I'll be looking for buying opportunities every day lol.
The list of shares on my watchlist grows daily. In general I'm planning mainly to stick with my trusted favourites.
Jack be nimble Jack be quick. In and out don't hang around.
G
That is what i have done this morning with BOO and BVC , tomorrow who knows. FTSE100 is not looking good today.
Volcano - I've still got my profits in BVC - it continues northwards.
The FTSE100 looks like it is going to give us another bite at shares we missed out on back in March. We saw what our long term portfolios looked like at when the FTSE dropped to 5000. The markets kindly gave us a recovery, and the chance to escape some of the more problematic positions.
What next - got to love it.
gla
G
TF - I live in a market town, the high street has changed, over recent years, where I am its pubs, cafes, charity shops, estate agents and hairdressers / barbers. luckily we are well serviced with supermarkets, plenty of choice there.
But so many empty units. Surely with the growth in online its now time for both Central and local Govt. to pave the way to cut through planning and allow the switch to residential use. It's happening slowly here. Several years ago a major car sales showroom was bought up by MSC and is now a massive retirement complex.,They've also bought our police station for ongoing development. The beer garden in one of our pubs is now two houses, and another was flattened and they managed to get 10 houses on the plot.
We still have so many empty units, or ones that are yet to re open. Strikes me as the chance to balance the need for housing in the South East, with available property.
G
TF - think if my memory serves me right you were the first to mention that you felt TOSCA would look to break up the business when they first bought in back in January.
Agree TOSCA are not stupid and must have crunched the numbers, particularly before their latest top up.They have to answer to their investors.
Did you know their break even figure is now 70p per share !
Not sure what time frames they have set to gain value for their investors here. Am guessing they'll be looking more to the medium to longer term, whilst pi's seem to fret on pretty much a daily basis.
It must be a pain for larger institutional investors, buying in on the placing, now 25% down. They are a bit like supertankers. whereas us pi's can nip in and out, and buzz round and about in our tiny little sailing dinghies. Got to watch out for bad weather and rough seas though.
gla
G
@Gerry65 Thanks for the gold share info I'll take a look into them all later along with the Crux link you provided. I only came back to shares a few months ago and in my time away I forgot some of the basic rules which is why I missed out on the goldies, or did I? Surely they have higher to go as gold seems to be a decent bet for alteast a year or so minimum?
Thanks again.
Now that TOSCA have 28% of the shares, (i.e. over 25%) is the appointment of Clive Condie to the board linked? It would make sense to have their man on the board to try and steer the ship to calmer waters.
I was looking to trade under 30p but no luck there ,maybe i should have taking the offer just over 30p .