Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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"Personally I'm hoping for a hung parliament...!
Is that literally Mommur !! .. ;-)
Good weekend all.
aimo & dyor
Similar story with my portfolio DTP.
With regard to wft / epl, the weasels have exclusively targeted oil/gas companies in the UK due to the unique position of being unable to pass on costs to joe public, as our product is priced on the international market.
The likes of the Banks, BG/Centrica, BAE, RR etc would simply inflate their costs to compensate shareholders. Unfortunately we cannae do that., whilst billions are accumulated by said companies and others. They don't want BAE turning round and saying their Nuclear Sub is now 10 billion rather than 4 - after all its value is better than keeping the fuel coming?
Personally I'm hoping for a hung parliament.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ZsEzbw7Rs
SQZ get a mention at 14.35 mins, low risk, cheap metrics, great divi and a longer term view.
On oil etc but banks make loads more than most oil are they on wft ?
Some really healthy gains across my whole portfolio in the past couple of days. Except for SQZ as usual.
At the AGM, I'd like to hear what the BoD is doing to address this. Do they have a strategy? How will they respond to Rachel Reeves and her proper windfall tax?
Thank heavens for BAE and RR. Not compensating for my SQZ loss but making it slightly less painful.
The only companies that are now benefiting from the two wars GB are funding seems to be BAE and RR. So why isnt the wft tax being evenly distrubuted between these and North sea producers.
Maybe jefferies during its conference could address this in some way.
For me the only possitive is that i have not invested in a company that supplies arms to make the average citizen in these countries more grotesque by the day. Little Britain were getting there.onmho,dyor
"Add to that Mitch Fleggs in attendance.."
Running-up company expenses and handing out his CV too no doubt !
aimo & dyor
Add to that Mitch Fleggs in attendance:
I look forward to joining colleagues tomorrow for @Jefferies 4th annual Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London #energy #oilandgas
https://x.com/mitchfleggceo/status/1769817467876962444?s=46&t=uz3in5yMdDdYvqnOjeh9vg
Latest Serica Energy tweet…
We look forward to joining @Jefferies 4th annual Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London tomorrow; an excellent platform to discuss market trends and opportunities and share insights. #energy
https://x.com/sericaenergyplc/status/1769793728334434489?s=46&t=uz3in5yMdDdYvqnOjeh9vg
Crude 82.900 ⬆️
Brent 87.168 ⬆️
TTF Gas 28.82 ⬆️
UK Gas 74.30 ⬆️
How about picking up a 7% holding for less than £1mill in Longboat Energy. That would shuffle the deck somewhat and add a bit of intrigue.
By our Institutional Investors or Mr and Mrs Hardy, nor I would surmise by any Long Term Holders here. (Myself included)
My last dividend went into Herald Investment Trust thats up around 25% at present and causes me no worries at all - unlike the death nell of EPL that is preventing any new investors into Serica Energy, despite doing all the right things this year on capex.
I still have a substantial holding, (stupid is eh!) and feel their is still a few cards to play to the benefit of the company and sincerely hope that the sp delivers for peops averaging down - the divi's not to be sneezed at. GLA holders
None of them are even worth a cross on paper anymore. Spoilt vote for me. Having said that will vote for an independent if they are worth it at the time.
Absolutely, what everyone outside of the industry fail to recognise is O&G extraction is not like any other industry. Massive upfront cost, high risk and dedicate years of commitment as such all is based upon the economic value over the life of the field. Removal or even reduction of allowance will bring forward CoP and hence substantially reduce tax received by HMG. As we all here know, O&G extraction can not be switched on / off at will, once CapEx is cut / removed, developments put on hold the economic value becomes questionable so you begin death cycle of the NS, investment will simply move overseas never to return. This transition has already begun imo.
All for what, a cross on a piece of paper !!
aimo & dyor
FWIW, Simply Wall St have decent company info, and good visuals across various interesting dimensions such as 'Value', 'Future' etc. But their valuation methodology is really hit and miss, and generally derived from a DCF model without reflection of wider sector and geopolitical factors. Possibly not even aware of nuances of EPL.
An analogous article last week on HBR lambasted realised profit for the previous reporting period, without awareness of EPL impact.
That would be nice Newkotb. Maybe they have forgotten the fact that Serica is North Sea based and is technically nationalised by a war funding state inmo,and no one's elses
Think Simply Wall St have been sniffing something !!!
Would be nice to think they are on the ball rather than off their rocker, half that would do me !
aimo & dyor
Hope your right DennisThe Pennis.
Fwiw i still hold here , but not as many originally,but a quantity that effects me.
I think they're rushing to get as much done as possible before a Labour government. Then all North Sea investments will stop until Labour see the error of their ways and concede a u-turn. Just my theory.
Thanks Stevo12. Extremely informative. Lets hope that Serica gets the majority of the workovers completed before the next general election. Otherwise hopefully they will cancel the remainder of the workovers should Labour become the next government.
Upmega
The Labour proposal is that investment allowances will continue against core tax, but no tax allowances for capital expenditure against EPL. This would effectively result in HMG providing a tax charge reduction equal to approx 45% of capital expenditure (for companies without brought forward tax losses) as opposed to the current 91.4% allowance.
The net effect of the proposed labour policy is that the operator would fund 55% of capital costs, receive 22% of operating profit during production and fund 60% of Decom costs. I think there will be very few projects where the 22% of operating profits will be sufficient to cover upfront capital costs, interest expense on borrowings and decom costs and generate a return. It will result in tax rate that will likely exceed 100% of total FCF/ economic value over the field life for most projects.
Something I can't get my head around.
If the hmg removes the EPL incentive of repaying capital expenditure. Then surely any capital expenditure could still be written off against profits. So in effect we would be no worse off by continuing the capital expenditure programme in the future.
We may well be due some positive news before the end of the month:
- Bittern sidetrack commencement
- Keith Well's intervention commencement
- Erskine Compressor fixed
- Belinda development decision confirmed
- and importantly a new CEO chosen
A flow of information is always good news and just might resurrect our ailing sp. Good point Maverick and agree that its politicised and a major negative.
It’s (North Sea oil) being used a political weapon and the tories are running scared of labour scoring cheap electoral points. Reckon that after the election if the tories miraculously win they will come to their senses - we will see