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excellent thoughts from afn poster.....I think this is a risky albeit interesting punt. Woodford must see value here and wont want to lose millions easily. You may well lose all your money so gamblers only. But if this does work out then 5 to 20 fold is likely. Which of course is not much to those in the concert party that bought at 11p and above. It will be delisted soon so we will need a bid. With 8 million being invested here though it must have a chance given a three year view.
"I suspect it will languish low until at least midday on 8th when future direction is certain after vote. There is then at least a week where anyone who wants to invest at a substantial discount to placing can get in. The placing is at a 320% premium to todays price. So what? you might say, well, it depends how serious Woodford and Wales (Concert party) are about absolute control: If you read the circular re: proposals http://www.spheremedical.com/sites/default/files/Circular%20220817%20FINAL.PDF Pg 12 In the event the Whitewash Resolution is approved, the Concert Party will not be restricted from making a general offer for the Company. ..ok, so why would they do that 'now' and not before funding proposals. Well it comes down to dates... Part of the Woodford concert: OMNIS, last purchased shares 30th August 2016 @11p/share. Had the concert party made an offer before 31st Aug 2017, it would have to be at the highest price they paid in last 12 months i.e. 11p/share....and now they are restricted until the 8th Sept due to the need to highlight funding proposals. Page 21: OMNIS Bought: 30 August 2016 10,000 11p Therefore, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the concert party simply make a general offer (e.g. at funding price or below) instead of dicking around with in market purchases after the 8th Sept. Just an idea.
Yea..... they state the level of operations will reduce by 35%, i expect that means sales of P4 and our Direct Sales force may be on the way out. Cash usage by 40% presumably that means staff, wages & promotions etc...I would have thought data from P4 would be vital in progressing P5 & FDA approval? Perhaps out Italian & Spanish distributors will fill the gap. If we are abandoning or drastically reducing P4 for 5 pray it's not another 3 years to be fit for purpose. We had little say in matters as a public quoted Co now even less so under Lord W. Maybe that's a good thing for both parties! Learning to live with the fait accomplis is going to take some doing as essentially we are sleeping investors whom and I'm guessing here Lord W wanted burned out. He might be surprised at the nos wishing to go private. Over 400 deals have been executed since the crash for sure a lot will be flipped by short term punters and the 'out at any price' holders but orthers might push the final total come last dealings to Lord W having 300+ sleeping partners as bed mates.
From my reading of the document....the whole strategy of the company is changing. Sales are been halted and sales teams are been scaled right back. No exhibitions as it did not produce the desired results/sales. It failed or the product in its current form failed. Or the market was not ready. Take your pick. The funds been raised are not for anything other then further product development....to meet a more rigorous and hopefully rewarding market....namely the USA. Direct sales was a non starter but all that was realistic left after the pull out of Ortho. That is the way I see JL. Get the product sorted out and then get a proper distribution deal sorted.
If so...they must think they have time on their side. The complete opposite of what I think. We cannot ipss around another 2 years without any sales. Disaster lurks round every corner ffs! We need as many hospitals as poss using and getting used to P in a 'live' setting. Jeez were not going down the boffin route instead of the brawn route. Get selling the bloody thing for chrissssakes! How difficult can it be?
No update expected from me. Woodford and Co just need to hear resolutions all passed. 4 days later they lodge £5M with sphr for CPS@ 2.82p. They need no update...in fact I would imagine ANY potential good news would not now be fortcoming. No reason. Unless they have ear marked a particular investor (s) for tranche 2....they would anticipate no real uptake. That looks to be the structure of it. Sales have been scaled right back it would seem.
No update expected from me. Woodford and Co just need to hear resolutions all passed. 4 days later they lodge £5M with sphr for CPS@ 2.82p. They need no update...in fact I would imagine ANY potential good news would not now be fortcoming. No reason. Unless they have ear marked a particular investor (s) for tranche 2....they would anticipate no real uptake. That looks to be the structure of it. Sales have been scaled right back it would seem.
Well your more bullish than me Del! I think my brains have been scrambled and cannot think straight! My confirmation bias of the worst case is strangely comforting! Long shot, that come the EGM, is that whoever is in charge gives the mrkt some bullish news to move the shares upwards to 2.822. Any news of more hospitals buying into P4 would be very very good news! We would have had 9 months of sales by then so a good time to update one and all.
I don't see another £20M been spent here JL. May be to get it to FDA approval....a guess... £10M in private. Hence the warrants issue. Bets are if all going to plan...then warrants will be exercised @ 2.82p. That would see it home. That is the bet...in my view. If they exercise by October next year...then the future will be bright...
End of day guys...if you have bght or are yet to buy the sp means very little imo. Topping up to mitigate the 5x dilution (min imo) down the line might be your main concern (amongst many others)? Forgetting all the risks we think we know and bet your life we'll probably get screwed in 2+ years time any invstmt now is fraught with danger. Do you chance a massive dilution to your holding now or wait for a wipe out in 2 years time? I'd rather have a 0.005 % of a first foal foal from Frankel.... than take this bet. Regretfully I missed that one, so here I am believing in miracles and relying on loads of imponderables to come good, did they ever? So the odds stacked massively against us which most of us have factored in (look for 33/1 against). Anyone who thinks we can get traction in the US for another $20m needs their head examining....look for $50m minimum. Pray W & E are still up for it!
Now selling for....0.065p The mms are still happy to give that for a soon to be delist education share. I wonder if Ortho have sold out or are selling out. A few big trades just gone through.
Yes. rugs2. Wonder who nicked 'rugs' ? We got Sakho, a cult hero end of last season. Wish we had managed get another goal-scorer. Hugely reliant on Big Ben.
A price drop looks on the cards rugs. Becoming cheaper to buy. Baggies did well this window. Thanks for email. Will take note. That you on ADVFN?
Wish I could be more positive but who the hell knows what goes on when your dreaming? PS. I gave up dreaming about P 20 years ago! Palace crocked, Sphere crocked, boy I can pick'em!
on opening. Can sell at .666 and buy at .670
You'll be 80 by then John and Mrs B. Will have retired , Crystal Palace will be in the Conference/National Southern League , seriously if it takes 8 years to get to 100m w/w sales if will have folded
Here's something I dreamt last night. £100m w/w sales by 2025. Profits of £20m. Eps of 3.. Sp of 40-60p.....heh heh heh!!
Thanks for your reply. Unless it drops to below 0.5 i will not be investing as i dont really understand the implications. Will only be in for a dead cat bounce. Genuinely sorry for those who have big paper losses and hope that it works out for the best. Atb Pk
Del, should you want communicate privately with JL or myself, simply drop an email to : cpfcatselhurst@outlook.com absolutely no problem if you prefer not to. rgds
They won't JL. Ask rugs about FTO. The BBC was gone quite swiftly. Don't ask me why ADVFN keep it open.....they just do. Just somewhere to keep an eye on for bits of news. If I here or spot anything I'll post there.
Considered that myself. Del posts there. Not sure there will be much to talk about although as a private Co they have to issue reports etc within 90 days of the H/Y & F/Y nos...I believe. It's somewhere in the delisting papers. Lse might keep open the bod you never know....
When this disappears i'll probably jump over to advfn if they keep the board going over there
Not taking up the CPS/Warrants is unattractive imo especially the warrants. As an ordinary holder the CPS holders will take preference only in the case of cash / share dividends. I'm not interested in either. Should we ever receive an offer all classes of shares will be ranked parri passu.
You remain a minority holder of ordinary shares in a private company where CPS holders become the majority..... If you are easy with that...then no problem.
Or putting in more cash = buy in now then = less dilution as u more for your buck than the 2.82p pref shares II's dumped and went out as no appetite for 2.82p pref shares leaving Woodford and Wales funds taking all the risk with 80-90% holding after the £5m-£8m raise in return they take it private for ultimate control. PI's left with no choice, buy/add now and vote yes for resolutions to got a chance of seeing any return, or sell and walk away and turn the page. Holding from pre rns day's is just worse as u keep holding on a hope whilst diluted to the max. mm's not taking these shares for fun, either accumulating on behalf of woodford or someone else 100% sure, it is pretty easy for them now to drag it lower to force remaining PI's out and accumelate as much pre agm, II's gone and they don't bother with rns's now they out (except octopus rns)