Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Started: viable, 17 May 2024 19:35
Last post: viable, 17 May 2024 19:35
Jefferson-Davis County's time is getting closer. HH plus Sonat premium equalling gross $3.20 + will precipitate rig mobilisation and new wells at Gwinville and other targets.
Started: Morgan22, 25 Feb 2024 22:08
Last post: Morgan22, 25 Feb 2024 22:08
Appreciate thoughts on where this might go next. With gas prices so low I can't see how it will recover
Started: Morgan22, 2 Nov 2023 09:11
Last post: Megan2012, 9 Jan 2024 21:12
Nearly 10% up Canada
Any impact here tomorrow.?
Not sure it can double production in 12 months but possibility of this in a few years with extreme patience. Worth watching.
:(
Started: Morgan22, 17 Oct 2023 09:52
Last post: bangrak, 2 Nov 2023 08:48
2805boe is $5.6m net so now 17p is fair with extra shares @ 165m. 2024+
Thanks all. Would love to see this rise to over 40p.. probably dreaming tho
There are some excellent features in the update overlain by a stronger HH price. Although it has retreated slightly this week $3.25/MMBtu with basis SONAT premium at least one of the DUCs will be connected in November.
I have thrown my hat in with SOUC in preference to DEC and NorthSea wannabees. Obviously the bear market has been uncomfortable.
Would appreciate people's thoughts and future estimate on share price? Thanks
Started: anyoneforcricket, 2 Oct 2023 09:21
Last post: anyoneforcricket, 2 Oct 2023 09:21
Good to see extension of credit facility in sensible time
Started: Morgan22, 31 Jul 2023 22:13
Last post: viable, 9 Aug 2023 20:11
Turnaround very shortly. Increased Sonat tariffs should enable hitherto uncompleted Gwinville wells to have their taps opened.
Will it ever get back into 40s yawn
Started: Bethany1, 4 Aug 2023 16:04
Last post: Bethany1, 4 Aug 2023 16:04
Interesting buying and rise this afternoon maybe someone knows something back over 25 for starters be great gla
Started: DugWalker, 13 Jun 2023 14:47
Last post: DugWalker, 16 Jun 2023 07:55
Nymex up 10% yesterday as Europe's largest gas field set for closure due to geological instabilities.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-15/dutch-government-set-to-close-europe-s-biggest-gas-field-in-groningen-this-year%23:~:text%3DThe%2520Dutch%2520government%2520is%2520set,it%2520heads%2520into%2520next%2520winter.&ved=2ahUKEwiLvLyzmsf_AhVNEsAKHSl6AEwQFnoECBQQBQ&usg=AOvVaw3MomuJhicW0UTnunSLmLWe
Sonat premium doing quite well today.
Hopefully SOUC will have another leg up tomorrow.
European gas prices have douled in the last 2 weeks as Asian competition for LNG has increased. SOUC sell into southern LNG plants. A global perspective is key given what is happening in Europe.
It's clear on the EIA website that the current south central gas storage (https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/dashboard/regional) is well above 5yr averages and trending upwards, as such I don't think there will be any bullish sentiment in gas for a while. Also its a El Nino year so cooler weather in southern USA would be expected this summer (Less A/C).
Canada is currently leading the SP retraction, people should assess if this is a trading opportunity to bag a few more shares.
TTF up 13% so far today anð 35% in a week . Nymex up 2.5% in early trading today and looking liikely to be back above 2.5 soon.
With gas prices climbing we leave shoulder season and SOUC just waiting to open the valves on the DUC wells, the shares look a bargain at this level.
Last post: DugWalker, 7 Jun 2023 07:05
Souc on TSX traded more than 4 times the 3 month average volume to finish on the equivalent t of 27.3 p last night. High volume days in Toronto have frequently provided a lead for the following day's action in London. Fingers crossed for another step up today?
Https://www.mineralanswers.com/mississippi/producers/petrotx-operating-llc/3554
Some recent Gwinville production figures shown above.
Have been adding when possible to SOUC. Will be happier when back in the 50s. SOU/TSX going quite well today.
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/SOU
Florida Gas Transmission sales point (as per RNS) is a new detail. Question: does this conduit add an important catalyst to summer AC uptake?
Started: ria20, 23 May 2023 14:55
Last post: 4kandles, 1 Jun 2023 18:04
VRS is one of the worst dogpile stocks on AIM. Sorry.
Nice rise on here today ....both SOUC and VRS on the top risers on the leaderboard today....great day so far
SOUC Target price of 40.00 and VRS heading for 2.00 worth a stock worth looking at too.....both can multi-bag.....have a look at the latest technical breakouts on share talk link below:
Https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1660982677825294337
Started: Bethany1, 23 May 2023 08:48
Last post: tom111, 24 May 2023 14:20
Back in here after a long period of waiting gla
Decent daily rise and malcy review of yesterday's news suggests more to come .....gla ;)
"I will redo my numbers shortly but they will not go down and the deal is significantly accretive and the company is more profitable than ever before. Forecasting the gas price is foolish but I for one am incredibly positive and this move has indelibly stamped the high quality management and I am sure that there will be more deals like this to come. SOUC is a keeper and will increase in value a great deal from here…"
Https://southernenergycorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Southern-Energy-Corporate-Presentation-May-2023.pdf
Informative and useful field update
Won't be a surprise if this ticks up further when TSX opens.
Very encouraging.
8,500 acres = 13.28 sq miles
40-stage fracks on 1+ mile laterals across two horizons will really boost production numbers.
Patience will pay here.
More to come.
Started: 4kandles, 16 May 2023 10:05
Last post: 4kandles, 23 May 2023 15:58
Thanks Bethany, yes another nice move on today's news. But US nat gas pricing is not helping this stock. I'm out for a quick profit. I've put my profits into FLEX which is something of an arbitrage play on US / global nat gas prices. Good luck all.
Nice move 4k well done and great news today more to come no doubt very low mcap for such significant assets hopefully recent re bound continues gla ;)
Some nice chunky buys went through today and we're at 18.5p to buy. But wow, this is like a library here.
Looks like the SP finally retraced to Dec '21 lows. US nat gas is back in fashion for now. I just bought some SOUC at 17p after capitulating at 33p. GLA
Started: DugWalker, 23 May 2023 14:38
Last post: DugWalker, 23 May 2023 14:38
Up 15% in first few minutes on volume that is already close to recent daily average. Time to buy more before this goes higher!
Last post: deskstand, 11 Apr 2023 10:49
Southern is a geared play on natural gas, prudently managed and with massive potential once
the inevitable upturn occurs. In due course possible many multiples from here for the patient
Significant re rate coming here gla ;)
Started: Jungmana, 29 Mar 2023 11:54
Last post: tom111, 31 Mar 2023 15:35
Peru is not the best place to be viable I don't know why you would sell JSE and buy /keep PTAL JSE has a lot of news going forward AINMO
Anyone have access to the updated Cannacord note from today?
I like this:
"The 18-10 #1 City Bank well was drilled to a lateral length of approximately 5,744 feet with 100% of the lateral drilled in the target interval. The well was successfully stimulated with a 50-stage completion operation and is in early stages of completion flowback currently producing flowback water at 5% of load recovery. Southern does not expect to see peak gas rates until the well has recovered approximately 20% of load fluid based on historically stimulated vertical and Generation 1 horizontal wells in the City Bank reservoir at which time the Company will report on initial production. The Company is encouraged by the early results and looks to add significant net asset value to the reserve books in 2023 as no proven undeveloped or probable locations have been attributed to the City Bank zone to-date."
Should be a good cash buffer imo as drilling time halved. Hopefully we get a report of total 4000+ boepd production currently.
Cheap at GBP 22m market cap ( 18p) imo.
"With an average operating cost in 2022 of under $0.80/Mcfe, Southern has some of the highest margin natural gas assets in North America, which continues to benefit the business model and provide strong cashflow for the Company. "
Last post: tom111, 27 Mar 2023 10:53
Gas heading towards 1 at this rate, who would have guessed it.No rns since November dosnt help
I agree with you Neil. Using a discounted balance sheet approach, SOUC has a solid margin of safety, especially at the current market capitalisation which is incredibly low, given our large cash position and realistic growth prospects. Given the macro picture, this cyclical low in HH gas will be painful and just something we have to bear. However on the flipside, I wish I could enter the stock now at the current level! A great opportunity whilst there is blood on the streets (a favourite John Templeton quote of mine).
The share price is almost like a leveraged play on the HH gas price and like the rest of the sector we seem to have followed it down. We make 22% more cashflow per share for every $1 increase in HH. There are multiple catalysts from Spring / Summer to hopefully rerate HH gas so I remain cautiously optimistic.
Its interesting that the video contained market-sensitive information regarding pausing the drilling. He did say "may" so they could still happen.
It makes sense to drill at a higher price so that prices could be hedged.
I am looking at buying in here. We just need to wait for the selling to be done. The problem with AIM is that when some one wants to sell there are no buyers unlike with large-cap stocks.
Bethany:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4Dgh5yiAis
6:35 "We've just finished drilling our 7th well ... and may leave 4 wells uncompleted ... to complete at a later date when the price of gas is more supportive"
I presume this means they have stopped drilling new wells, but I might be mistaken.
Started: DRCed, 23 Mar 2023 08:22
Last post: DRCed, 23 Mar 2023 08:22
It’s going to be another red day today. Investor’s are showing that their confidence in this company has been shaken. Tax year end is almost here, I am hoping that the company will release a RNS that says the gas is still flowing and there is money in the bank.
Started: DRCed, 22 Mar 2023 14:28
Last post: DRCed, 22 Mar 2023 14:28
I don’t think it will collapse ( I hope ), we are just tracking the oil and gas price lower. We will end up pumping more gas but generating less revenue. This is a low volume share, just a few sells can cause the share price to drop significantly. Buy an AIM share and it’s a gamble.
Started: Morgan22, 14 Mar 2023 13:58
Last post: Danger_Mouse, 22 Mar 2023 09:19
Pausing of any acquisitions is a good thing at this time of year. I'll be adding here earlier than expected with a view that the cash could provide support. AIM is a brutal wild west due to low liquidity and high PI interest so you always need to buy on muti year lows.
Our market cap of £40M is not much higher than the amount of cash we probably have, so that should provide a support to the share price. And just because we may not be drilling new wells does not mean we are not currently generating revenue and profit from our existing ones.
The huge growth is on basis of new operating wells and acquisitions.. both of which don't look to be materialising
Souc q4 and year end results due mid April hopefully operation update too.
The management team anticipates growing production from 3,400 BOE per day of currently to over 25,000 BOE per day in the next 4 years.
Malcy bucket list:
"Plans to develop the portfolio makes 2023 a truly exciting prospect and I have what seems like a monster target price of 260p a share in the book."
Short term drift and lower gas price, fear not Defo hold long for decent rewards in the meantime great top up price ;) gla
I'm beginning to think this could quickly drop to pennies and never recover :(
Started: Harka, 19 Mar 2023 13:13
Last post: Harka, 21 Mar 2023 16:25
Sadly I am not Viable haha. I worked as IM for 5 years and then have been an IFA for the past 3 years. I've followed a concentrated value approach into small cap cyclicals (mainly O&G) for the last 7 years.
I use Sharescope Gold (with no level 2 access) for screening...
SOUC current price movements are definitely painful atm and slightly make the stomach churn... however cyclical lows in gas won't last forever (they never do) and the long term demand picture for LNG remains strong with global undersupply projected from 2025 onwards by the likes of Shell (their Gas Outlook), McKinsey etc.
LNG developers signed nearly 34 million tons per annum (MTPA) of long-term LNG contracts in 2022, representing a 68% increase over the last record set in 2021. Most of these contracts anchor new or expanded liquefaction projects that aim to reach financial investment decisions in late 2022 and 2023 (Deloitte - 2023 Outlook for Oil & Gas).
The volatility of these kind of stocks is definitely not for everyone and tests even those with the most ice-cold detachment from investor emotions and behaviours.
GLA
Hows things Viable
I think for me, anyone with an investment horizon that extends over 1 year can clearly see this company is in a good position to take advantage of the global LNG export market. In Q3 2022, SOUC had one of the lowest all-in per unit operating costs of $0.64/Mcfe and expects to continue receive a premium to Nymex for its gas in 2023, albeit at a lot lower margins for the time being.
The gas price this year is a major frustration. From the presentation, I know that assuming a GEN 2 type curve, the wells at Gwinville are projected to generate an IRR of 33% @ $4 HH. GEN 3+ tech is expected to generate returns significantly better than that, however in the current climate they need to wait until gas is at least $3.25 to make the economics worthwhile... I therefore think delaying capex is sensible.
I would really like management to execute some M&A, taking advantage of the low gas price, their significant well inventory data and healthy cash balance. I think patience is key as deals often take a long time to materialise and negotiations to complete.
That being said, with Southern being valued at near cash, we are definitely more of a takeover target in the short term. An approach would certainly act as a catalyst but I would hope it be rejected in light of the company's long term potential and positioning.
I would love to hear others views. I think its a shame HH gas is struggling at the moment but I do think there are catalysts which should help rerate it as we approach summer...
Started: Harka, 8 Mar 2023 13:58
Last post: Harka, 8 Mar 2023 13:58
'How Gas From Texas Becomes Cooking Fuel in France' - WSJ 03.03.2023
The U.S. currently hosts seven multibillion-dollar liquefaction plants with enough capacity to export more than 13 billion cubic feet of gas a day—more than a 10th of U.S. production. By 2030, new plants coming online are expected to push that capacity to around 23 billion cubic feet, according to S&P Global, requiring many more new gas wells.....
A mild winter and gargantuan imports of U.S. LNG helped restore gas storage back to healthy levels. But potential outages in gas-exporting Norway, an economic rebound in China, and renewed competition for cargoes from southeast Asia if LNG prices keep falling could deplete Europe’s inventories, said Eugene Kim, a research director at energy-consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. In that scenario, “the onus to refill will be even higher,” he said.
Started: Harka, 8 Mar 2023 13:41
Last post: Harka, 8 Mar 2023 13:41
Drill results:
Results from the 18-10 pad are expected to be announced this month. The pad is targeting multi-zone potential in the Upper Selma Chalk along-side the first Gen-3 technology well drilled into the City Bank, where SOU does not have any booked reserves despite significant historical production from Vt wells. As a result, the pad could provide material reserve adds if proven successful. Remember, SOU employed directional drilling technology with this pad, which gives us confidence in the potential to see early indications of improvements relative to the 19-3 pad.
M&A Potential:
M&A now more important with management believing the environment is ripe for acquisitions given lower gas prices that all else equal increases the willingness to sell. Management has built an incredible database (~25k wells) and knowledge and experience around its focus area...
We expect Company to target purchase of assets at close to PDP value, with the emphasis on acquiring de-risked reservoirs where it can deploy Gen-3 tech. For context, the Company’s cash balance could support the acquisition of ~2,000 boe/d (2-3x; 2x its base).
Capex Outlook:
Management has laid out a US$78.1 MM capital budget for 1H23 which includes 13 horizontal wells targeting multi-zone potential in the Upper/Lower Selma Chalk and City Bank formation. However, with the precipitous drop in gas prices, we would not be surprised if the Company elects to defer capital until a gas price recovery. We are of the view that showing a degree of capital discipline to changing natural gas conditions and preserving undeveloped inventory for better pricing is prudent, particularly given the vast opportunity set to incrementally execute accretive M&A in the US.
Pure-play exposure to premium-priced NA natural gas prices:
SOU’s production base is >90% natural gas, with 100% of its natural gas sales fetching floating prices that approximate HHUB in 2023, which is attracting a premium over its Canadian equivalent. Moreover, SOU’s hedging strategy offers investors some of the best cash flow torque to rising gas prices, with every $1/MMbtu move in HHUB equating to a +22% increase in CFPS.
SOU provides one of the best 23’ debt-adjusted production and CFPS growth in the sector. Importantly, this can be achieved even when assuming Gen-2 well results.
Upside to 5yr development outlook:
Management is targeting organic production of ~17 mboe/d by ’26 by drilling 15 wells per year. This maps to ~60% CAGR from 2022-2026 and supports cash flow growth of ~50% (CAGR) at strip... However based on older Gen-2 results; assumes development of the Selma Chalk only (not inc. City Bank); deeper prospective zones in the Hosston and Cotton Valley remain untapped; Co. could actually drill up to 21 wells per year.
Catalysts. 1) Well results from 18-10 3-well pad; 2) Gen-3+ type curve (1Q23) – important for business planning and formal Street guidance; 3) Reserve report (March 2023); 4) M&A poten
50p and I'm out .. cmon news
Very odd gas down over 14% and the sp up nearly six% I guess news will be very soon
And this podcast from January;
http://www.kereport.com/2023/01/17/southern-energy-introduction-to-a-growth-oriented-us-natural-gas-producer/
Highlights
Regular newsflow expected Feb through July. Drilling and completions.
Still getting Premium to nymex through Transco 4 location.
Sees current SP as misvalued and expects rerating this year.
2 months old but worth a watch:
hTTps://youtu.be/qJePQI2BLeM
Started: Bethany1, 14 Feb 2023 20:33
Last post: viable, 20 Feb 2023 11:12
a) I need to get up to speed on Pascagoula before commenting further:
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/30%C2%B019'20.6%22N+88%C2%B030'13.2%22W/@30.3524368,-88.5255234,8657m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d30.322382!4d-88.503663
(satellite view)
b) Freeport update:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/natgas-flows-freeport-lngs-texas-export-plant-jump-refinitiv-data-shows-2023-02-13/
Time for optimism.
All blue so far and decent buys news by end feb no brainer obv buy
malcy "Plans to develop the portfolio makes 2023 a truly exciting prospect and I have what seems like a monster target price of 260p a share in the book."
Under 40 to 260 even if back to 60-80 anyone buying now will do very well gla ;)
". . . Venture Equity, together with Svetoslav Bojilov, owns or controls a total of 15,576,234 Shares, representing approximately 11.28% of the presently issued and outstanding Shares".
Bulgaria EAD now controls 11.28%.
https://www.placera.se/placera/pressmeddelanden/2023/02/17/southern-energy-venture-equity-bulgaria-ead-acquires-stake-in-southern-energy-corp.html
[I've gone quiet because of over-pushing the stock. It remains a major holding together with i3E, PTAL, SHG and THS. Also hoping my AAL pals move on the ARCM Kabompo dome.]
I am shocked nobody is mentioning the holdings RNS issued and the significance of it.
Couldn’t agree more B1. This is a growth stock and one to tuck away.
Started: Morgan22, 14 Feb 2023 15:34
Last post: tom111, 17 Feb 2023 21:13
Viable seems to have disappeared since stating he was going to buy on MONDAY LOL
Probably the best bet is to wait a few months lol as if we didn't anyway and come back in May/June when EU is filling up again,they had the benefit of Russia supplies for the first few months last year but as you know that's it from Russia.A spokeman from Germany on Bloomberg was concerned it might not be easy for supplies this year with competition from China
You do make me laugh. I can assure you you're the last person I would take investing advice from.
"Losses on SOUC" that's the first time you've even used the phrase. You've consistently and erroneously talked up this company as if you have some mystical knowledge of what's really going on and it's all been a crock! Remember using the phrase "avalanche of good news on the way". Deluded then and deluded now.
You got it all wrong. And are probably still getting it all wrong.
Still obsessed with me I see. I hope for your sake you were paying attention when, back in Sept/Oct I was suggesting on this thread that folks take a look.at PXEN. If you did then you will have bagged on your investment and more than covered any loss you might have made on SOUC.
The last couple of months production volumes from GH 19-3 take us to a point where the sample size is sufficient to reinforce what were early but premature fears of abnormally high decline rates.
The new wells about to come on stream will need to perform much better or the early promise of this investment will continue to dissipate. Management communications have been appalling which as you seem to have missed it, is something else I was flagging up months ago. Maybe you would benefit from taking a more balanced and mature view of what folks have actually posted? After all PXEN will have been a painful miss if you chose to ignore me based on your opinions of what you think I do or don't know.
Manofnomeans is SO quiet!!! So quiet!
Yes, I'm still here. It's been an expensive way to say "I told you so." There was definitely something off about that corporate mugging of a share placement. Appalling corporate behaviour.