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interesting point to remember, thanks bluerill. anathema to the squirrels of course but always been clear to me that Oisin has enjoyed the complete support of Martin Hughes over time. and that has been the making of San Leon as we see it today. if people want to get a good quite detailed overview of San Leon, as they did the OML18 deal, they should read the lengthy and thorough SPAngel report from a couple of years back, written by Zac Phillips. that put an SP of between £1 and £1.20 on us then to reflect our true value then. included in that was a risked value of 19p per share assigned to Barryroe (before Barryroe got farmed out). can't seem to find it now but it used to be gettable off the Winnifreth (ugh) website.
The idea of the exercises were to 'maximise social utility'. No, I never could work out the required formulae either - anything above 10 times tables was beyond me.
'No intention of buying' - as a long time holder, it's a question of selling. And, for the record, I will probably not bother. I've held this long and can wait another year or two - and 46p doesn't cut it for me.
Jesus some people are hammering the sells this morning. I suppose it’s people taking profits after the sharp rise.
SB
There is quite a lot of chat about Tosca and Martin Hughes on here - again we are guessing as to their end game but I’d be v surprised if they wouldn’t like to reduce a little risk here? I know the fund has a reputation for stickiness but they had a near death experience with SLE which required Tosca’s balance sheet to sort it out. Thus the 46p I believe as the tender price.
Time will tell - personally I will put in to sell 50% of my holding ...as luckily in cost on all between 23and 28p...then ride what’s left...
Um...yes, that's essentially correct, if a bit lacking in detail!
Thank you bluerill. Still building up a better overall picture of the investment proposition here.
So it's a case of, if you don't succeed, then try, try, try again until a extraordinary deal eventually turns up.
Because Oisin put together - with Martin Hughes's help - an extraordinary deal where they will have - by Oct 2020 and the final repayment of the loan notes - effectively bought a 10% stake in this prolific field......for nothing. That kind of value creation (clearly not yet reflected in the share price) tends make controlling shareholders into enthusiastic advocates who then look to do MORE deals with that executive, rather than replacing him.
Reading through the back history of Sle and its wheeler-dealer CEO, if he is so bad for shareholders' wealth, why hasn't Tosca removed him from that lofty position yet?
Yes Mclean an argument to not sell for 46p.
Those are sentences (I think) that, strung together, constitute - at best - a waste of perfectly good bandwidth. It was agonising to read (and I speak fluent squirrel), even as a guilty pleasure like I might get by clicking on an Evangelical Christian website offering to guide me to my own personal relationship with Jesus. Best I can tell from your strangulated syntax, you are mangling a description of a Dutch Auction, which this decidedly is not. This is a simple tender where anyone who tenders their position is guaranteed to get a minimum of 10% sold at 46p, with their total increasing pro rata as - for whatever reason - any other shareholders choose not to tender. Since it is my view that a material number of key shareholders are likely NOT to tender, it is therefore my further view that anyone buying today and tendering will get far more than 10% done at 46p (I can discuss a more detailed analysis of the company's share register later for anyone who's interested).
You covered similar rubbish in college, did you? I weep for the state of higher education in this country
Assuming that those who accept the offer want as much as possible of their portfolio to be purchased (ie. 20% of portfolio being purchased by SLE being preferable to 10% etc.), then this is one of those situations whereby the more people attempting to sell achieves the less satisfactory result for each individual (with the worst being a minimum 10% repurchase across all portfolios). So, setting an assumed market price against the 46p, theorectically I suppose there should be a price (or series of prices) that the most ambitious sellers are willing to actually PAY others not to sell, in order to ensure that these sellers get as much of their portfolio sold as possible - and thus everyone (both sellers AND non sellers) profit from the SBB to the maximum extent possible. A kind of economic socialism.
We used cover similar rubbish in college, but I will leave it to the clinically bored to work out a complex formula that indicates the maximum that sellers will be willing to pay non sellers to optimise aggregate profits.
Big problem for the bod though. The more cash that builds up, and the stickiness of Tosca in resisting this and any future tender offer, only means one thing - that fund creeps its way towards 90% ownership and a mandatory takeover.
I would say they want pi out full stop big tests won't sell so I would say if you put in 30k shares in the offer they would more than likely be taken up 3k ish profit if bought today imho
OW - agreed we need an update and is it part of our master services agreement?
Af - No Batman and Robin are class guys the sale of my 10% would only provide UK 333 hardly enough for a decent bottle of anything so guess I'll keep the shares and hopefully share a more quality wine in 3 years time when we are actually receiving dividends and Barryroe is contributing to the kitty - thank goodness SLE went for UK 30 mio if it had been UK 10 mio it would have hardly moved the Share price.
OD - yes ramping up production and sales of oil/gas is what we need - loan note interest is all well and good for as long as it lasts - 2020 - it should carry us through the until "real income" from OML18 oil/gas resources can be brought to market.
In the fullness of time, I am thinking that OML-18, ramping up production through successful infill drilling and lower losses through the pipeline, plus BarryRoe becoming a commercially producing oil/gas field, will render this kind of debate irrelevant.
Well it depends what you do with the remaining 90k shares - keep them, sell them?
If, as a hypothetical example, you buy 100k then sell 90k at today's bid-offer spread 35.3, 36p (at the time of writing) and including dealing costs and stamp duty, sell 10k for 0.46p then I estimate you would make £166 profit!
The stamp duty takes a chunk (£180 or 0.5%) and the spread. So whether you make a (decent) profit critically depends on what price you can get for the 90k ...
QF
So let's say today Mr x decides it's not a bad deal
Buys 100k shares
Tender offer takes 10,000 of him 10p ish gain
resulting in a gain of 1k
is that correct??
now san leon is doing well after 8 years of nothing perhaps san leon now want all the shares in private hands and perhaps that is what they are up to.slowley slowley catchee monkey. they did seem to say there would be more offers comming our way.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creeping-tender-offer.asp
What is a Creeping Tender Offer
A creeping tender offer, also known as a creeping acquisition, is a takeover strategy involving the gradual acquisition of a public company's shares on the stock market, instead of making a direct bid.
the tender offer is only for 10percent of your shares so you could sell just your 10percent at 46p which is probably the best you will get for a long long time and then by them back again same day at a cheaper price probably about what the price is settled at today. you make 10pennys per share. will you make enough to get a bottle of wine from batman and robins cave.this is there favorite i think. https://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/b/378/san-leon-fortified-wine
Thanks both for explaining the offer and i understand now and i bought San Leon many years ago so showing a large loss so i am not taking part in tender offer and i will keep my fingers crossed and hope san Leon creates more value for its shareholders and many thanks both
Yes. The balance of February will likely remain a busy period for comms from the Company,
Isn't an update well overdue by now, as spudding took place on Dec 10th?
"Eroton has confirmed that a rig has now been fully positioned at the well site, and is expected to commence drilling in the next few days. Well OSMU-1 is expected to take up to 60 days to drill to around 11,900 ftMDBRT (measured depth below rotary table) and complete".
I would add to my friend Mclean91 who has been spot on with his analysis this last 6 months (alongside a few of us believers!)...in case portsmouth72 you havent gone back thru the blogs on here...SLE has a quarterly income derived from a loan which pays it some $18mm/quarter and will continue to receive this til mid 2020. The SP has been kept artificially low I think its fair to say by some pretty low - in fact maybe dishonest and deliberately misleading might be better words - behaviour, mainly eminating from the Nigerian mafia it would seem who had a vested interest from the failure of SLE.
The company is now on a firm financial footing, because in addition to the quarterly loan repayments it has, as has been noted on here yesterday, other very attractive assets including a 10% (near enough) holding in a Nigerian oil asset which has been termed by the industry as 'world class'. Its near 5% economic holding in BarryRoe will also likely lead to some attractive returns.
As a result of all this the company has chosen to return $30mm at 46p to shareholders, all of whom will get the chance to sell AT LEAST 10% of their shares to the company for cancellation at 46p on March 20th. The company has also left the door open to further capital returns as the cash builds up, thus why some on here feel the SP has further potential upside. I personally think 46p is a noteworthy price, given that is - albeit the world's smallest - a premium to its last capital raise and where it is likely we will discover in due course that Jite bought STT's equity stake.
The future is indeed bright, notwithstanding the twin risks of the price of oil and being involved in 'frontier mining'. I can't quite say my 45p target by end of march reached, but I reckon it was a bloody good call!