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The content of the latest auction is poor...the appearance of the catalogue is poor. This auction will not enhance the SG profile in my view.
Seems that SG still have the fundamental problem....too much high cost price stock with unattainable retail prices, especially in the GB stock.
"...too much high cost price stock with unattainable retail prices, especially in the GB stock."
I have to say that's my view. Hence my question to Carpe that week. I was specific about the old stock they own, that had to be revalued for their books, but is it still inflated? I don't have that answer, but just this nagging feeling. It could take them years to get rid of that stock, even more to reduce the debt to any substantial level.
I'm not convinced that people will be rushing to stamps as an asset class, or taking up the hobby. There's no evidnece that's happing, actually the opposite, there's been large increases in cash saving, home prices, private investor appetite for listed equity and even crypto coins. That over priced might take a very long time to shift indeed.
I might add that HNW collectors are not putting their money into GB stamps. Auction prices for general GB is soft compared to say Chinese or Indian stamps. Traditionally during these sorts of periods you have a cartel of certain dealers buying up auction lots to maintain the price . This can only go on for so long. Without exhibitions there is simply no incentive for collectors to splash out on key pieces. Looking at the slow vaccine rollout in Europe, I doubt there will be major exhibitions for many months.
HNW collectors - I think very limited number of people. It's just fanciful to think large numbers of American will be rushing out to buy stamps. The evidence suggest 60% of them have been badly effected by Covid. Many think to an extent they will never recover financially. Of the 40% who've had a positive effect, they've bought equities, bonds, property and added cash.
Hardly a time to suggest there will be mass purchasing of stamps..there's more Americans on the food line now than there's been for many, many decades. Food or stamps? It's not a tough guess.
As we've already seen the popular assets class hike in value over 12 months, there's nothing to suggest they'll change. Most HNW individuals were at best children the last time stamps were considered an asset class. You'd have to be a fan of 70's sitcoms and drama to have any exposure to the concept ;)
Collecting is definitely going through a renaissance at the moment, as evidenced by regular record prices on eBay for example.
The next major trade show / exhibition is Stampex International at the British Design Centre in Islington in September for four days.
"as evidenced by regular record prices on eBay for example"
But we know that SGI hasn't benefited from that over the last year.
Is that how you think of SGI? Like an eBay equivalent? Thought we'd been there before and it resulted in terrible crash for the business....I'm a little surprised that eBay sellers have been achieving record prices. I thought they had a very difficult year with disruption to deliveries resulting in many eBay shops closing? Have you got a link to the source that shows historically high prices on eBay? I
Let's just remind ourselves of SGI's 30 September Interims.......SALES ARE DOWN 26%
So, I'm guessing nothing to back up the statement of increased price on eBay for "collecting".
The anecdotal evidence I've seen suggests:
Many "shops" stopped trading on the platform because of supply and delivery issues
There actually been a fallen prices for many traders because of the way eBay promotes sellers
There's been a significant increase in Chinese traders that's driven prices down in lots of lines f goods
None of that has any particular importance for SGI, but if for a moment you're correct, then it suggest SGI sales, which to remind you: SALES ARE DOWN 26% were structurally worse than Sellers on eBay got. SGI couldn't convert surging prices in to top line sales...........if you are correct.
You’re pretty vocal Devon, for a non collector. And always a negative response which undermines your continual replies. Clearly there’s no hope for SG in your view which is why you’re always silent when the share price rises.
I think you’ll have your chance very soon to be silent again
I'm only asking you to provide some evidence for you statements? Can you to the last few assertions?
My responses are only negative in terms of your wild unsubstantiated claims.
What we do know is sales were down 26% when you speculated they would be up. Speculations that have included young people are becoming collectors in hordes, web activity will be through the roof, American will be spending their relief cheques on stamps, the opening of the shop, re-opening of the high street. Have I missed any? I'm sure there were more.
I have said there's a hope for SGI over and over again. But I've also agreed with the Board's view that they are only at the very early stages of the turn-around and there's no guarantee it will be a success. My view, as I've over and over again, is that it could take years, anything up to 5 years. So, what the share price does over a matter of weeks or months matters very little to me. The opposite appear to be the case for you, which suggests you wan OUT.
Silence, the only silence I want is from unsubstantiated pumping. Any chance? Even a chance of something that backs up yours speculations? That stands up to critical consideration> at least we have the last figures to go by SALES ARE DOWN 26%
Agree generally with you Devonplay, but could take well more than 5 years. Stamp collecting will eventually become more popular but I plan on giving my many stamps, including many first day covers going back to 1966 Battle of Hastings, to my grandkids who aren't even born yet....that's a long investment !! Eventually the cycle returns !!
Thanks Clued, I try to be fair, even if the occasional joke overcomes me. If it's 5 years or more, I think there still a small glimmer of hope for SGI, just not instant gratification. I think it does the company no favours setting up these expectations.
Example: Pearls suggestions that prices are surging on other trading venues, I can't see that's the case, but it does lead to the inevitable question if prices and demand are surging, why did in that period SGI sales decline? You can only come to a negative conclusion, because stamp traders/collectors picked someone other than SGI. It's all counter so productive......