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So our broker ratings just in have a bit of a spread
By my calculations (based on RNSs) Sage have so far bought back a total of 9,216,365 shares at a cost of about £55M, with an average price of £5.958. It's about 0.85% of the total shares in issue. The programme started 4th March and is ongoing.
I liked this line
In addition, Sage's cash flow characteristics and balance sheet strength would, we believe, support an leveraged buyout-type takeout price of 790p."
soon be back to where it belongs
Well done Mary, good to hear. I've been looking at the share buy-backs reported in RNSs - they did some last year and they fizzled out after about 5 RNSs. Not sure if this was because they stopped buying, or just stopped reporting! Anyway this year they have really been going for it, all through March, and it seems to be having an effect.
Just joking about the disposal, it's just the latest in a string of them and was expected. Hopefully we can target growth elsewhere in the emerging post-pandemic landscape.
Today brokers Citigroup switched advice from neutral to "buy" (bit late!) and ramped their target from 619 to 770. Always amusing how they can justify such drastic changes with a straight face, but what a lovely shiny new target (@:
Blah,
Agree that disposals seem odd as it is doing so well. Perhaps massaging growth. Next results will be interesting.
My strategy calibrates frequently. My cores are getting bigger.
Do not worry about me please. I am up £14k in 2 days in my tax year, trimming and averaging down and buildng up cash for the flash crash coming (at some point )
Re SAGE nice move up today.
Your disapproval of all of the points I made was acknowledged already Darren, the question was: why? The context Mary provided in response confirms some of the limits to the strategy which I was hinting at, and the specific circumstances in which it seems to work. She also seemed to admit the amount of effort involved compared to other strategies she uses elsewhere. Getting a fuller picture of the strategy was interesting, imo.
When you say "her strategy is sound", do you mean it was sound in hindsight or do you think the strategy is still useful going forward? What did you think about my observation that the SP has hardly ever neared the low point in the range - just twice at closing during the entire period, I think? Surely that makes it somewhat impractical to implement as described, and considerable "wiggle room" is required to make it work at all?
Things are now possibly distorted a little by ISA buying, and the yo-yo range seems to have shifted. Share buybacks will continue to underpin the downside though, so Mary's strategy may still work with some recalibration.
Back to Sage itself: another disposal today, so the cash pile gets even bigger. Feels counterintuitive for a 'growth' company to be shrinking? ( :
With the profit it’s made in the last two years it sounds like a great price
blah - I did consider her points, and her strategy is sound.
what I was saying is that your feedback on it was not.
Holding my core for the ride up as usual and trading to improve averages as I do so I get a sniff at the upside.
Will reduce over £7 or any 10%+ move (I can feel one coming)
I have some large positions now in around other stocks as well which are, like SAGE, heading upwards I trust.
My IAG holding average 19.84p.
Racking away most days.
Blah
It works until is doesn't, but starting after a sell off eg SAGE FSJ RNK CPG IAG EZJ TUI FRES GSK EXPN SSPG DVO BVC among many others worked like a dream. The March lows and the delay of the recovery have been smashing for me, finished the year with more trading profit than the PM's salary plus a bit.
Largely tax free.
I do not expect the new tax year to be as easy but I have different strategies that should work in most scenarios, even going in at higher levels.
SSPG is thundering along and the 184 rights will actually increase my average price (by 27%). Around 125p in all. I cannot wait for the dividend and special dividends to return in a few years time.
Chocks away!
Happy Easter to all, enjoy the break.
THis next year should see
I bought SGE @ £5.74 in early Jan, have also picked up the div.
Felt this would recover, and the recent rise including today, is encouraging.
Am comfortable with this in my long term P/F.
Nothing goes in a straight line but would hope to see £6.50 and onwards, by the Summer.
GLA
G
G
Thanks Mary, that context makes sense. I think Sage probably has a limited downside at these levels, which probably makes the volatility more benign for trading. The focus on averaging down is an intriguing angle of attack, it seems to cut out a lot of the market noise and allows a simple way of making decisions. It's a neat way of building up a position around the bottom of the range, while the range holds, ultimately expecting a higher range.
Currently at the top of your range, where I would be uncomfortable selling. I guess you still have to make a decision each time whether to stick or twist! Hope you make the right call again, good luck!
FWIW i expect this to go significantly higher and while keeping a low average I am happy to add on any pullbacks.
My method will keep working for me until it doesn't and then I will switch to a different strategy that works on other my other holdings.
Blah & Darren
I understand where you are coming from, but I work on averages or my trades in the tax year and this stock, for me, is now averaging sub £4.50. (excluding the dividends picked up). I have had between 3k core to up a further 8k shares to rack up to.
Looking back my first tranche in my current racking was at 610.751 in Nov. My lowest purchase was 557.69 in Feb.
I do not sit looking at the stocks all day long, but rely on alerts set and within 30 seconds of so I can add or sell.
Works for me. certainly now work falling out over.
While this trades about these levels my aim is continue what I am doing and build about 8k shares with an average of sub £4 and work it down further towards £0 and beyond hopefully.
My only cost will be blood sweat and tears :).
GLA.
Why deflect from a discussion of Mary's interesting strategy with an antagonistic (no offence) personal comparison Darren? She has taken the trouble to provide lots of details, so why not consider them, it could be informative. By all means disagree with me, but it is a boring discussion if you fail to even address any of the points raised
Blahblah - no offence but your analysis of Mary's strategy belies your lack of acumen more than hers....
I like the averaging down idea, but I think you may be overselling it a little. For one thing, it seems like quite a lot of work, monitoring the price constantly and all that dealing! ( : The closing price has only neared 564 twice in the last 3 months, yet you've done twenty plus trades, so it seems likely some of your buys must have been at a higher level. Your selling range also seems quite variable, you've mentioned 620, 610 and now 600 and 605. Finally, there is a more than even chance that the pattern breaks after you have sold around 610, because its more likely to break upwards than downwards, imo. That would leave you with 70% of your holding out of the game when it matters most.
Nevertheless, I think you have chosen a share which seems to be conducive to your strategy, so if it ain't broke, don't fix it!
70: 30
eg
per 1000 @ 564, approx cost £5675 incl stamp & comm
Sell 70% Keep 30% at 605 = £4229 net of comm
Left with 300 shares averaging 4.80p each.
Different quantities different ratios larger moves many sell less and keep more.
Build and average down works for me.
DYOR
So true 560 570 buy, reduce above 600 605.. not selling all. Rinse repeat and keep on racking.
The longer this goes on the more I pick up. I keep my average below £5 post each sale. When this hits £7 or £8 , I hope to be richly rewarded.
DYOR.
GLA
It's the gift that keeps giving Mary :)
Sage obviously looks better on days like today when the in form hot stocks tank...
and they marched it up again.
FWIW
I would not short Sage at these levels at someday a bid will be announced for this cash cow.
I will sell at North of £10.
GLA
and opened long from 578 - £1k a point so let's hope this turns!