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P14 of the March 2021 presentation, Romanian indicative Netbacks.
Using a most likely $6/mcf market price, the after tax netback to SENX is $3.17, which, at a conventional 6:1 gas:oil energy conversion basis, is equivalent to around $18/boe. That's after ALL costs and taxes, which your calculation doesn't include.
Then, on p20, Tunisia indicative Netbacks. The presentation highlights a spot price of $50/bl but let's be more generous and use $60/bl. That results in an AFTER TAX netback potential of $19/bl to SENX.
I believe these are the figures you should use along with the volumetrics you apply, rather than $40 for Sabria, for example.
Older and wiser can you expand please, your post is confusing. You have told me my calculations are wrong.
Please in your words explain why they are wrong and provide workings to support your findings.
What I’m finding confusing is that you say oil is valued at $10/Bl for oil and much lower for gas.
I reached a figure of $6.4 to $ 8.28billion in the below calculation pointing out that I used $40 per barrel profits for both Tunisia and Romania. These are low given current crude price allows for negative fluctuation.
(See below calculation previously posted)
A slight increase in those recovery rates by say $5-10 would no doubt arrive at $10 billion.
In relation to Gas I offered no calculations for the Gas we produce however from the latest slide I have extracted this:
Moftinu - 1008 Well cost $3m
At current output returns 4.0 MMscf/d @ $6
$24,000 per day
$1m every 40 days
$3m every 120 days
$9m over the 360 days (minus any drop off)
This was a calculation to show the recoverable, I used 25-35% of sabria and only 75MMBoe of Satu Mare not the full asset reserves
This in relation to the asset in Tunisia
Sabria
Asset is said to have 358 MMBoe (independently verified)
The resource has had extremely low development with only “1.2% produced”
The reason for this low rates was a variety of reasons - simple reasons - Pumps to increase revenue had not been installed.
Any way the interesting part out of that 358 MMBoe they believe 25-35% recovery factor of which only 1.2% has been recovered.
So ladies and gentlemen I get to the interesting part.
Satu Mare - we use the 75MMBoe mean risked (not the 358MMboe - don’t want to get to greedy)
Sabria - we use A) 25-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 85.2MMboe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 160.2 MMBoe
Sabria - We use B) 35-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 122 MMBoe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 196MMBoe
Recoverable average totalling
160.2MMboe and 196MMboe
Satu mare 75MMboe at say $40 profit (currently $55) =$3billion
Sabria @ 25% - 1.2% = 85.2MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $3.4billion.
Sabria @ 35% - 1.2% = 122MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $4.88 billion
$the
X0.72 USD / GBP
£4.6 billion to £5.96 billion
As previously pointed out costs In ROMANIA it’s $9. Tunisia is $19
Think we posted at the same time there.
What I ground value have you arrived at please ?
I am not an expert on O&G, but I can read company presentations. If you can't accept my numbers, please take it up with Serinus, as I am only taking their costs and revenue figures using realistic spot prices for gas and oil. The basic point stands. Use their company AT netback numbers in your expected revenue projections, and then apply an appropriate PER to them, to arrive at expected MV.
Olderandwiser
Consolidated netback for 2020 with average price of boe/d at 27,45 was 16.51
For 2019 which is a more realistic picture netback consolidated was 30.67, SENX has now reduced uplift cost further to 8.96 consolidated
REDORDEAD, all very true.
But then surely you must work with SENX's assumptions on netbacks including royalties and taxes (42% effective in their presentation), at various price levels, to come up with realistic numbers, or else what's the point of them producing these pages?
So for argument sake as you are yet to provide me or this board with figure or workings to demonstrate your post we take my figures based on Oil only.
£4.6- 5.96 billion add them together = £10.56 divide by to equals an average of £5.28billion x 0.42%= £2.2176 billion.
So taking my figures which used $40 minus cost and a figure of 42% you believe should be used in ground value is still £2.2176 billion but true value would be a lot higher I used much lower figures for recovery and haven’t included gas recovery.
I’m looking forward to reviewing you oil in ground price and gas in ground price figures, I’m guessing I’m not alone.
Still a lot for a £36m company
Also forgot to add gas & oil prices year to date
Gas + 55%
Crude + 30%
SENX - 7%
(Not my words taken from the presentation)
Looking forward to accounts and markets reaction
Charlie, sorry, I'm not with you. What do you mean by "MY 42% in ground" figure?
It's SENX's estimated assumption of the effective tax rate in Tunisia on Pre-tax profit. Nothing to do with "in the ground" reserves. I'm talking PROFITs, not ASSETS. The Romanian numbers used do not include anything for depreciation, by the way, which you should make allowance for.
Apologies recoverable I should have used 58% as 42% is what it costs as per presentation.
£5.28billion x 0.58 = £3.06 billion so what is that x85 the value of the current MC without adding gas in ?
As for depreciation I did not calculate gas reserves only oil.
The oil reserves I used a recoverable factor of 25-35% of actual know resource known as per the presentation.
As we have already extracted 1.2% I also deducted this off the 25 and 35% thus using 23.5 and 33.5% respectively of the reserve figures.
Hope this make my calculation more clear
We need clarity on the well work overs in tunisia. There should be no delay. These could totally alter the cashflow of the company and the funds for these have already been raised in the recent placing!!!
They gave clarity in the last presentation
I watched it. Not enough for me.
What do you think they will do with the cash accumulation ?
I have profit at $1.5m per month
What else do you want them to say? They're waiting for the authorities to approve the work.
I see no need to wait 18-24 months when resources are in place to start this work.
They need to treat this as a priority and push this forward.
I also want them to clear up why the latest presentation mentions funds foe this work etc when these are already in place from the placement.
Ps - I am a holder but want a plan to be shown in detail as the funds were raised with this in mind.