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Sorry the price in pence was miscalulated previously. It should be:-
The previous didn't format very well. So hopefully this is clearer
PER --------Price in Cent --------------Price in Pence
10 --------- 10 -----------------------------7.9p
15 ---------15 -----------------------------11.34p
20 ---------20 -----------------------------15.8p
The above is 2026 expectations. If these are met, plus new contracts appear, I'd expect profit to double each year.
Share price would obviously increase in a similar fashion providing growth projections (ie visibility via future contracts ), continues. Without the growth ( ie new contracts) the PER associated with the stock will reduce.
So getting to 15.8p is possible on hitting 2026 forecasts.
Then profits doubling in 2027 and 2028 would normally see the share price also double. However without the visibility of future growth the PER would drop back to 10 from 20 and you stay at 15.8p.
All sorts of variables in there. It won't work out like that, but that's the theory
Thanks for sharing Brockwl
The previous didn't format very well. So hopefully this is clearer
PER --------Price in Cent --------------Price in Pence
10 --------- 10 -----------------------------7.9p
15 ---------15 -----------------------------15.8p
20 ---------20 -----------------------------23.7p
Micky,
I have a model which breaks down the various revenues and costs in the same manner that the results are produced. I'm happy to share headline numbers, as not sure I could handle the formatting here for the full figures.
It comes with a number of caveats.
1. Revenue assumes Auto to meet predicted forecasts.
Note this hasn’t happened in any year to date and future forecasts are always revised downwards after release of latest figures.
The last 2 Quarters were zero growth and the next 2 need to be exceptional to make up the difference. So, another downgrade is highly likely.
2. It contains nothing for aviation other than the Collins licence payment.
3. It contains nothing for OEM NRE and Hardware installs, which historically have been about $7m
4. It assumes a reduction in costs of $4m, which given inflation is currently 5% may be optimistic.
However, they are guiding on costs falling after this year, and is balanced out by no NRE above.
5. I have included nothing for After Manufacture, but have assumed Fleet to have above average years for 25 and 26.
Revenue Profit/(Loss)
2024 $62m ($9m)
2025 $83m $15m
2026 $120m $52m
Currently the company has repeatedly guide $125m revenue in 2026, but as they have never hit a target yet, I’m happy to leave it at $120m.
Market cap is currently £227m using 5p at share. Which is $286m
Assuming the Magna convertible happens with interest in shares, there will be roughly 4.55b shares.
In 2026 $52m profit (Lets use $4.5.5m, because to date they always under deliver, tax is unknown, and it makes the math easy. Gives an eps of 1 cent.
Using various PERs, take your pick.
PER Price in Cent Price in Pence
10 10 7.9p
15 15 15.8p
20 20 23.7p
Years 2027 and 2028 should see profit double each year from 2026’s figure.
If they can hit the revenue and profit figures above through 2025 and 2026, and it’s a big if, plus we see future contracts materialise then a PER of 20 would seem very reasonable.
However, if they continue to over promise and under deliver then expect a PER of 10 going forward.
I can still see potential for a 50p share price in 2027/2028, but I can also see much which could derail or delay that.
Also my figures show a $15m profit in 2025, the company only talks about reaching cash flow breakeven in 2025, so that worries me a little. It could still mean they do actually make a profit, if the cash flow breakeven occurs early in year.. But they are being quite vague here and leaving plenty of wriggle room.
I wish they had taken 18p 3 or 4 raises ago.
The misery continues
Sadly AIM is in the gutter at the moment. Hopefully, at some point the tide turns as people realise there's money to be made on undervalued stocks.
From that perspective it's looking even better for SEE, they are at approx. 1/3 of our annual revenue but still have an MCAP higher than us, based on highly speculative figures, these don't seem to be on par with how SEE provides their conservative figures.
Thanks for pointing that out Nathan, I got carried away with the £ sign, ha
Turnover c20mill in gbp for seye pa. As listed in Sweden most of the sites pull data as SEK as currency so needs a currency conversion to compare.
Seye market cap is 3bil SEK and closer to ours in GBP. C220mil gbp.
Gla
Looking at SEYE they have a MCAP of £3billion and a turnover of £300million per year, admittedly our turnover is lower than theirs at £59million but SEE's operational highlights they mention that the majority of the £366million revenue will be expected by 2028, so we could potentially be at £100million a year turn over as the royalties build up over the next year or so, it's high margin too.
I was looking at a new BMW last weekend, I questioned the sales guy about the technology plus pack and the subscription pricing, he advised all new cars include a free 3 years subscription (so it's only paid for after the initial warranty period, most people will trading their car in on PCP in that time too), so it seems like the royalties with BMW are a given and not an option, as long as the right packages are selected on the vehicle when purchasing.
Mikey. You speak as if isb put some thought or reasoning into his litte jibe.
I've always felt that 25/30 p would at least be acceptable and give me a decent retirement. Love the blue-sky stuff occasionally but I'd be (pleasantly) amazed if we got £1 +.
There's approx. 4.19 billion shares outstanding, at 0.15p per share, that's only selling out at £628 mill #MCAP, at 0.25p per share this only takes the company to £1.047billion, surely with a pipeline of over £366 mill and that's before any further RFQs are won, or further development in the aviation industry, surely this company has to be worth more than that!
Between 10-15p if we are lucky
I've been doing some quick calculations and I reckon the management here wouldn't accept less than 25p a share in a buyout/takeover bid, does anyone else care to share their thoughts or have a model they care to share on here?