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seeingtom, I guess I've made myself look a bit of a muppet then :) Always worth it though to try and unearth things!
S2020, no clue about other users, just concerned with the facts.
Buying any company you think is grossly undervalued makes you a "dreamer" in that case! Anyways I gather that you hold a substantial quantity of SEE shares so I hope for both our sakes that my figures are even close to reality :)
Shrey. He's yanking your chain :-)
Shrey, the Team300 rampers had numbers that add up to 300p, but they are still dreamers
That Terry bloke with his trips to CES and Lewbo with his picture
My best performing share is a 72 bagger in 8 years. Would be lovely if SEE could get anywhere close to that, but seems unlikely! I’d settle for a measly 10 bagger!
S2020, all stock valuation is based on assumption. Of course you cannot say anything concretely, but you can make educated projections. If you think the assumptions are unrealistic, well then that's another debate, but just saying it's "ramping" off the base of there being assumptions undermines the whole art/science of stockpicking!
Seeing2020, that's why the conservatism is there. I'm assuming a c. 9% profit margin for a company moving to a licensing model, and taking a very aggressive estimate on self driving car uptake. In fact "cold hard figures" would be valuing future cash flow at more than that!
I detest ramping so just putting my opinion out based on what I see. Very interested to know opposing thoughts too!
Seeing-2020, I've only been on this BB for a short while so have no knowledge of the rampers you mention. If you have opposing thoughts, I'd really like to know the facts and figures behind them so we can promote a healthy debate!
Shrey, not "cold hard figures" you are making assumptions of a Net Profit based on the assumptions made by Safestocks. Assumption x assumption = hot soft figures.
No ramping please, it doesn't help anyone
Shrey at this rate you will be playing spoof with Seeing2020 to take his #Team300 paperwork in the bin & start the new #Team400 group ;)
Your very lucky finding SEE at your age!!! While us old farts are playing golf & reaxing with a G&T on Lewbos boat you will be on the Super yacht next to us with a Brazen of Beauties living the life.....
Shrey, heard it all before from those other rampers, Team300 and all that rubbish..
Just to reiterate, this is with assumptions that are pessimistic to the point of foolishness. There is no ramping here, just cold, hard figures.
While still relatively young, I'm not sure I'll see a company THIS undervalued by the market for a long, long time. The upside potential here is absolutely astronomical.
SEE should easily be a multi £bn company, imho. Interesting to point out previous Safestocks analysis:
"Assume 70% of cars have DMS by 2022, and SEE have at least 50% of that market, with estimated global car volumes of around 110m in 2022. If SEE received US$20 a car (blended average of Fovio selling at US$30 a chip and software at US$10) that would deliver revenues of approximately US$770m a year.
If Gen 2 Fovio can maintain pricing at US$30 a car, revenues would be nearer US$1.1bn a year. EVERY YEAR!"
Now, based on this:
Moving to a licensing model means we benefit from decreasing marginal costs. Let's assume (very, very) conservatively that £100m of the revenue above is net profit, then just based on that alone the valuation (at a 15x PE ratio) is £1.5bn.
However, this doesn't take into the fact that (eventually!) we'll be overtaken by self driving vehicles (however far into the future that might be). If we assume (again, conservatively) that this occurs 20 years into the future, the discounted value of £100m each year from 2024 to 2040 (at a 7% discount rate, to be sure) is £800m.
So with some of the most conservative estimates possible, our value is £800m (JUST taking into account car sales). This doesn't take into account the use of our preeminent eye tracking technology in gaming for instance (especially virtual reality), another huge market. At the VERY least, SEE should be about 5 times where it is right now and realistically should be valued in the billions, presenting an opportunity closer to a 10 bagger than a 5 bagger.
Interesting to see how it all comes together :)