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" But still ludicrously undervalued imho given the huge order books stretching out for many years ahead. "
Yes but unfortunately the market is not going to pay for future earnings ahead of when they arrive ..too much risk in doing that !!
..so the SP rates around current risks .....need to have some clearer idea of what extra cash they are spending to continue to get over these current production hurdles
Another tick up after some large-ish trades today.
Yes, the m/cap is £32m after the placing, cheers. But still ludicrously undervalued imho given the huge order books stretching out for many years ahead.
Any sign of the production issues being solidly addressed - or new contract wins - and the upside here is huge.
It’s a £32M market cap with 360M+ shares now in issue.
The next update needs to show increases in sales per month and a smoother production process. Ideally also a firm expectation of capacity improvements being on target for mid year.
" The £22m m/cap here is truly ludicrous "
nobody cares about MCAP ...only becomes of importance if and when a company is sold ...
What the market cares about is the PERFORMANCE of the BOD, and inflow and outflow of money capital within the business
The cash they have MUST achieve their targets and they MUST get in the revenue targeted to support that spend ..end of story !!
Hopefully yesterday's move up and the early tick up this morning is indicative that any large sellers are now out.
The £22m m/cap here is truly ludicrous when compared to a zillion other companies on the market - there are companies with virtually zero or little revenues who are valued at far more!
I agree that the company is very under valued, there are a significant number of trades today and a high volume of shares traded !!
Somebody is jumping in while the price is low.
Poole, the furnaces as far as I know have performed well since Q2 2023. The issue started in late 2022, these were new larger energy efficient furnaces, the linings failed within weeks when they should last at least 6 months. New linings were developed and fitted this took about 4 months to achieve with a slow ramp up over the next 2 months . The last news we had is the new linings were exceeding expectations.
There is also the prospective pipeline of £300m, this refers to future planned models that both the OEM and ST have done engineering work on. So far the prospective pipeline has ended up as part of the order book and the only reasons it wouldn't is if the model was cancelled or the OEM decides to change supplier.
Due to a disastrous 2023, a recent share placing and a very negative AIM market we are where we are. I can see a massive potential future valuation for this company but there are risks. The April update needs to show progress with production, lessons should of been learned from previous breakdowns that stopped production but until the £50m capacity expansion is completed there will be parts of the production line that still only have one machine in place. The possible single points of failure will reduce as capacity is installed but not sure how much will be operational in Q1. I feel reasonably confident but Q1 performance will be mostly about what the engineers have learned.
I live in hope that they have or will very soon iron out the production problems. A few months back there was a suggestion that there were teething issues in several areas tha were being attended to. That was largely a red herring.
I still think that the real issue is do they have the main furnace problem solved? Otherwise they need to let us know how they are able to forward order for further furnaces required?
As to their recently dolling out huge numbers of options at the very depressed they have caused it was a disgrace. The go ahead for the new options was given by shareholders when the share price was closer to 50p!
To me shareholders are being robbed.
How on earth the two main shareholders have continued to put up with this also needs some explaining - I have to agree with most of what "fevetreeman" has to say. The Chairman's job is too look after shareholders interest by asking the right questions which he appears not to have being for several years now. As for Johnson he failed to see that the major process change was feasible and capable of working before committing us to it. Enough said
Order book worth £400mil
So undervalued
1. Certainly the chairman needs to be shown the door and the sooner the announcement comes the better. My advice would be to announce Bundred is not seeking re-election at the AGM (June) when they announce the Year end figs. As for Johnson, who appears to have all the energy of a depleted car battery, he needs to up his game considerably or be told to step aside for a CEO who can deliver on the company's undoubted promise.
Meantime there is an urgent need to professionalise this company at every level. To give an example, they should tighten up reporting timetable: last year Trading Update was on Apr 3rd followed 14 days later by the Prelims, which given the current febrile state of affairs, will merely give Mr Market 2 bites to diss the share price. For a calendar year end company, putting out your prelims in mid April shows just how lax and underpowered the internal finance function was under Cunningham. There is no reason on earth why they cannot either combine the Prelims & TU into one release or alternatively release both on the same day. Over to you CFO!
" and they still got it wrong"
well.... I am not sure anyone knows exactly , why..... in terms of whether what they had been lead to believe was a sales confirmation by year end was , then held back by the customer .... until into the New Year
those things happen
There is also some concern probably as to whether they will get repeat orders , until the economies pick up...
" these were already in the share price and that a floor had been put under things when the equity and bank fund raising were completed successfully."
There has been no real buying since the Fund raise , and that has left the Bears to take control...with no real fight from any Bulls
Nothing is ever fully priced in, in terms of Bull/Bear trading ... if sentiment drops..the Bulls sit still and the Bears continue to sell down ..waiting Bulls think they might as well let the Bears take it lower
I am just watching, this one.... need to see how their production recovery is taking shape
On the 3rd Nov last year, they put out a trading update stating sales to the end of Dec would £8.6m, when it came to the trading update on 8th Jan, the CEO reported £8.3m for the year. The year end was only 6/7 weeks away and they still got it wrong, that to me smacks of a CEO and Chairman that are not in touch with the business, or blind to the issues.
With the orderbook they have this business and the SP should be flying.
Time for a new CEO and Chairman in my view.
Yes, I agree with all 3 of those points FTM. But it did seem - or at least, I hoped - that these were already in the share price and that a floor had been put under things when the equity and bank fundraisings were completed successfully. Time will tell but I don't really like the way things are heading south again now.
(1) Institutional selling leads to market maker shenanigans (2) Lack of newsflow (3) Doubts over calibre of CEO
From an outside source it seem like an institution selling. Not 100% though
I felt quite optimistic when I subscribed for extra SCE shares at the recent 10p offer price and the shares then held firm around 11p for a week or so. But since then they have been drifting down and today are not much above 8p. I'm not sure whether to sell and cut my losses or ride things out. Any idea why the shares are so weak currently? Is more bad news on the way?
Hi Jman89, this is the key part of the announcement to understand:
The Options vest at the third anniversary of grant if the following vesting requirements are met:
· EBITDA per share between 3.34 pence (10.5 % of the award) and 4.00 pence per share (30% of the award). This is based on achieving between £12.5m EBITDA and £15m EBITDA in the year to 31 December 2026
· Installation of realisable £75m sales capacity (30% of the award)
· Share price above 60p on a VWAP basis for the 20 days prior to the vesting date (20% of the award)
· A commercially confidential strategic milestone providing additional technical excellence, aimed at maintaining the Company's technical leadership in the marketplace (20% of the award)
The vesting criteria are independent of each other, albeit clearly linked if the separate criteria are to be achieved.
Hope that helps.
Just a rookie here. Is the lates update means CEO, CFO and COO were awarded of free shares for them or it’s option to buy at 10.98p per share? Sounds good in both cases anyway for not achieving sales target.
They stated they needed £8m, but any delays or further issues around ramp up ( which given the issues they've had have been just on the existing ops at the current site, before they are even at Phase 2 ) seems inevitable. How long do we think £m will last - I dont know, but look at the burn involved to sort out current issues and it isnt comforting analysis.
You have kind of answered my point. Johnson being unaware of how just weak the ops management of the business was & how underpowered and miles off target the finance function was, goes right to the heart of the leadership issue. If he was unaware of these things he just cant be left in charge of the next crucial phase of development. And it is not as if he has mended his ways; the insistence they'd hit £8.6m and they didn't. I would love to be sitting in the boardroom and watching the interactions.
Fevertreeman
Despite everything within 2023, I suspect it has been an incredibly valuable learning curve , providing a lot of what they now need.....so as you say a good opportunity to get properly functioning
what do you think the expense will be to
"delivering further operational improvements, capacity installation to remove potential single points of failure, upgrading internal manufacturing processes and further strengthening operational management and supervision "
any thoughts on a figure ?
Fevertreeman
As I said previously.I just think Johnson has had too much on his plate and things got missed ...and they were just not aware of how weak the overall team was,for what they need to achieve ...the scaling up is a big ask, overall.
" further strengthening operational management and supervision" shows they didn't have the depth of squad to win the Premier as it were ..which is what they need,given the potential for repeat orders and planned growth
Wise words, but what does that tell you about Johnson's ability to lead this company from the current valley to the sunny uplands and beyond.
What we've seen unfold most acutely over the last 18 months is that classic growth company situation with all the focus on winning customers, proving up the product, whilst hoping that they can successfully retrofit the systems and people needed (management, training & financial) without the wheels falling off or any one noticing. it didnt work and we are where we are. Add gnerous doses of bloody-mindedness , denial, and naivete from Bundred & Johnson and all the lements came together.
On a more optimistic note because I am a big believer in the tech, Board now has opportunity to reset things , clear the air, and get this company functioning as a grown-up plc. COO and CFO joining have started that process, but helluva long way to go frankly. If they can do this they have a fighting chance of remaining independent but I think odds are company gets taken out.....