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elrico,
Have you seen this link re sweetbiotix and any thoughts on what it might mean?
https://www.knowde.com/stores/optibiotix-health-plc/products/sweetbiotix/
letitrun, as the skin price had re-baselined at 37p following the disappointing axis EOY results statement re material miss and concerns that the Croda deal may take longer than anticipated, then to answer your question "What happens if Croda delays or Axis takes time to grow the market. What are the Options then?", we end up with a share price in the 17p-24p range, which is exactly where we are now. So perhaps better to ask the question "What happens if the commercial algorithm (not elrics) that errs on the side of caution results in very much improved exponential sales of axisbiotix, and Croda who have already engaged with VIPs results in royalties arriving as planned, and the Oral products R&D follows on from the hugely successful earlier work of Prof Cath and her team at Manchester University, and delivers success results from the trial that concludes this month, what will the share price be then?
I think Elrico’s exaggerated algorithm is the last straw for some. If you think that data is accurate you need to apply for some counselling.
He’s sold his Opti even though they accurately delivered their forecast and is now pushing some made up algorithm his mate has been flogged by dodgy Dave down the pub even after a huge and embarrassing forecast miss. SBTX should have followed OPTI’s mantra by NOT offering finger in air forecast until they had at least a slight idea on take up rate. They also should have landed at least one more deal by now. What happens if Croda delays or Axis takes time to grow the market. What are the Options then?
Aqua,
Ref OPTI comments were more tongue-in-cheek. I am aware I was less than flattering. However, I still promoted it as two promising Companies within the microbiome space. Given that there would have been a sizeable 4D investor audience, some of them may have taken a closer look. I still believe OPTI is undervalued, but we all know why.
Ref SBTX. The new audience for both will not have done any harm, but SBTX momentum is more likely due to the data grab from the site would have offered encouragement. It has done what I hoped it would do and removed the November & December data from their minds. I wish I had done the editorial a week or two later because last week's data demonstrate a significant increase in sales for both the USA and the UK; therefore the weekly average has jumped exponentially.
I will not report the actual figures at this stage because I do not wish to build pressure on SBTX, or me, for that matter. Moreover, some will expect regular updates, which would be unreasonable and expensive because the data is not available for free. Also, more importantly, if I suddenly stop reporting, some quarters will assume I am not sharing bad data, cherry-picking good data. The same caveats I mention in the editorial remain.
elrico your comments regarding Skin in the podcast may well of contributed to to the upward movement in the share price although I suspect the more promising anecdotal evidence of improving axisbiotix sales tempting the like of belgrano back into the fold have probably had more to do with it, but based on your podcast comments about Opti "I'm out of them as SOH has led me up the garden path" and ^not confident even with £2M cash SOH wont need to sell more skin" or should that be "squander money from skin",, I would have expected the Opti share price to go down not up!
Clio,
I'd wager the podcast I was invited as a guest on had something to do with both SBTX and OPTI rise. Especially, SBTX.
If you missed it, 49 min in. https://smallcompanychampion.substack.com/p/twin-petes-investing-podcast-78
24p paid now, up 11.63%
believe you are correct though Clio. Full ask now paid.
My previous comment sounded a bit more rampy than I intended because it lacked the facts of the SP jump; SP was 22p on 5th Jan 2021 and was 67.6p on 12th April 2021.
I’d put it down to good sentiment returning now we have a small amount of reasonable evidence to show the axis sales are no longer flatlining and in anticipation for some rounds of further good news on other pillars. Last time some good news was anticipated, the SP went from 22p to 68p in under 4 months and the business is much more secure now.
Maybe an update tomorrow based on 5% up today.
I personally don’t think they will announce any firm numbers until about October. They have 3-4 months to get the numbers audited and out. They took that long after the soft launch and I suspect they will do likewise this time. I think they want a solid onward run rate based on the high levels of retention and some news on other pillars to make a strong statement. Just my humble opinion and, as always, DYOR. GLA
So everyone, now the period is finished that the withdrawn forecast referred to, what are your personal predictions about when the company will tell us something about the Axis sales, and why?
My opinion is that we will hear something within the next month, as the company rarely seems to leave the market longer than 3 months without an update of some kind. Maybe, if we receive an update about one of the other pillars or developments, we might have to wait a little longer for information about Axis sales.