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Letitrun, you keep telling people to educate themselves when in reality you are the one who needs educating, you still haven’t admitted that companies can’t issue forecasts, seem to have gone quiet on that point. I suggest you wind your neck in, you come across as a complete tool!
You keep saying ‘sold’ down so I assume you do not understand the dilution aspect of Optibiotixs holding percentage by SBTX’s 2 placings. Please confirm your understanding. Currently your just proving you do not understand how the issue of new shares dilutes the shareholding %….which is pretty embarrassing for someone that charges for subscriptions.
Ok keep up with the algorithm it will be the final straw of your insinuating nonsense.
https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-a8b
does seem like someone really wants a wedge of opti stock today. decent wedge just bought there. perhaps a divi is coming there.
little top up after slight retrace.
I cut and pasted the wrong alliance, rather than the corrected version from the feed I subscribe to, corrected below. Here's another example; (Alliance News) - OptiBiotix swings to 2020 pretax profit of GBP5.7m from GBP2.4m loss
Apologies. £2m it is, but what would the combined SBTX sales be worth in today's money?
You seek to control the narrative by concentrating on your side of the discussion while ignoring awkwardness like discussing an uncomfortable alternative view on the funding option OPTI had, other than to sell down an asset from 45% to 21% ish! But, unfortunately, that is where we are now, and no amount of dancing around your handbag will change this.
This may be unfair to you because you do not know my source. However, it would be best if you did not make assumptions about something you do not know, but you do. Ref the algo; we have "reasonable" indicators of its reliability. They are the non-fiscal data it collates on SM trends and OPTI online store.
You ignore institutions that use the same source material as we have. OK, this could be a bogus claim, but this carries a significant risk to credibility.
You are stuck in the Nov/Dec timezone. The company has put a team in place to handle the D2C side they were not "originally set up to do", but like all good BODs, they adapt. You just missed it!
Lets us assume the Algo is somewhere near correct (usual caveats I have stated still apply), offer your an unbiased opinion of OPTI's online store sales of $41k average pm (for their combined portfolio of LP-LDL and SlimBiome), and AxisBiotix, a single product launch nine months ago, with apparently, over $63k average pm, and the USA just behind after a late start. In other words, in just nine months, AxisBiotix sales are 3x and climbing faster than OPTI's whole portfolio, which has a four-year headstart.
Instead of arguing against something you know nothing about, let's assume for amusement's sake the above is "conservative" or even 10% under the estimates published. What say you?
And let's not say these are my numbers, and they are definitely not from SBTX.
Note: OPTI sales figure is from three hence, so they could have had a surge.
Letitrun, it’s all opinions and conjecture. It is a discussion board after all.
Elric has put his money where his mouth is in one of his editorials, saying that SBTX will bring in more revenue in AxisBiotix’s first full year trading (1st July 22 - 30th June 23) than OPTI did in its first 3 years of sales. That is over £2.78m that Elric is predicting. He has said if the company does not achieve this he will extend every paid membership by 12 months FOC. So at £35 a member, and based on recent conversation we know Elric has over a thousand members, he’s wagering £35,000 for no real gain. He has caveated this with saying it is his opinion and not Stuart’s, and as so members must not beat Stuart over the head if he is wrong.
Elrongo (again) why do you say I spin the numbers? SBTX issued £6m worth of shares in 2 placings at low prices. Opti shareholding remained the same but it’s % was diluted big time due to the issue of new shares. Opti have not sold down 25% like you incorrectly state.
Opti raised £2m at 55p Nov 21 not £3.6. They also raised £900k earlier in year (£2.9m total from SBTX). They had £2m in the bank with debtors and payables balanced out to make around £2.9m at YE.
SBTX will have more profit & sales than Opti/pbx end of year? Based on what? £20k sales and your unreliable algorithm. The ceo basically said they do not have capability for D2C as they are shaped for BtB. You live in a fantasy
I really hope both companies do very well indeed.
We have moved on from "jam tomorrow", to hard sales and those sales are expected to rise.
One thing I do know, is that when a company share price rises on sustained and accelerating sales it does not retrace like we have seen with both our companies over the past 1 and 4 years, where then it was founded on expectation and not actual sales.
Which one will do the best??? Very hard to call, one has over 70 signed deals producing not a lot, while the other has just one main product launched but a pipeline with several more pending.
Both have a golden product, one is sweet the other clearly psoriasis treatment.
However for me, psoriasis stands out above all others, by my time taken viewing the psoriasis forums where millions of sufferers are really searching for anything that will aid them from this horrible skin condition. I believe news of our product will soon snowball, so why I prefer this one.
let it rant,
You have been busy tying yourself up in knots for our amusement. You need not bother. :)
I won't review the broker note again; Toyin has it covered.
Ref OPTI/SBTX holding
FYI your observations were addressed before you raised them over at https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/optibiotix-health-plc-74f
The net holding remains the same; however, you spin the numbers. So my preferred option to dilute OPTI and hold a more valuable asset remains a solid case, even if you only keep OPTI because of the future value of SBTX and any subsequent in-specie divi (remember that one?) would have had a more significant value.
It has often been remarked that OPTI has essentially no value, given PBX and SBTX assets. Have you ever considered why this is? Oh, go on then...because the market knows OPTI has always needed to use SBTX as an ATM. It is not a criticism, it has been very good business, but one I would have liked to have kept on the books as a whole.
OPTI raised £3.6m in SkinBioTherapeutics at 55p November 2021, but £2m YE
And to make my point about future value - even without Croda/Sederma, I'll have a friend bet that AxisBiotix will generate more revenues/profitability than OPTI by FY 2022 (not PBX/OPTI combined) if AxisBiotix continues on its sales trajectory. :)
I never said they dont discuss and get information from the company, what I said was, A company cannot issue a forecast, this is a fact. The broker issues the forecast with help from the company, that is totally different from the company issuing a forecast. From the Cenkos note:
While the impact of the second phase will take several weeks to assess, the board believes our revenue forecast of £1.2m remains achievable for FY22E.
Did you read that "our forecast" THE COMPANY CANNOT ISSUE A FORECAST!!!
Seriously.
Companies are not aloud to issue forecasts? What? Call up a broker right now and let them educate you of the process of how a forecast is issued. The broker issues a forecast based on what the company tells them and they agree is achievable. You think brokers come up with sales forecasts for companies even though they haven’t a clue behind the daily runnings of the company? Seriously
Companies are not allowed to issue a forecast, fact. Be accurate with your language. The stuff coming out of your mouth is madness.
The broker issued a forecast on SBTX behalf. That is how all forecasts are issued they come from the company broker. They are approved by the company and would have sat down together to come up and agree a number to release. The stuff coming out of this BB is madness
Letit, small point, actually huge point, sbtx never issued a forecast, the broker did.
Elric, you’ve called me far worse and We are still friends!
Whether you say it’s accurate or not it’s the insinuations which suckers people in.
I think it’s good thing you have turned against Opti as it will stop the stuff you are currently doing here. First the fantasy launch sales calculations here, then the 10 vip croda launches last year and now this algorithm….you are a tee up for serial disappointments in these companies.
Your information is also wrong. SBTX did 2 highly dilutive placings at 16p raising £1.5m and £4.5m at 18p. £6m worth of shares issued as low prices would have had a big effect on Optis % holding. Making out Opti have sold 25% is lazy or misleading.
I’m not sure your point with forecast, Opti stated £2.2m and hit it. SBTX said £1.1m based on a guess and got it unbelievably wrong and now removed it’s forecast entirely. Opti have always stated they would never issue a forecast until they had good data. This is exactly what they should have done here from the beginning.
elrico,
Those same companies appear in any quote for any product from any company you choose to select, just a std wallpaper background to the screen
Toyin,
I know you're a "guy." Are we allowed to say this anymore? :)
Elric, no tin hat required my friend, you know i'm a nice guy!
Belgrano,
There could have been an element of some swapping SBTX for OPTI. Now OPTI has given c4% of its early morning gains!
Letitrun, nobody said it was accurate, Elric just put out it out there for investors to look at, I also now where the data came from, its not from Dave down the pub or any friend of Elric, it is supposed to be on the conservative side, but nobody knows, time will tell. You have obviously got a problem with Elric and his blog doing a so called "hit job" on opti, so you decide to come and talk crap over here to level the score. Stuart has miss stepped once, like SOH when he said, it would be unwise to top slice in the 100s, we all make mistakes. As for all your what if's, I think a little time is needed. As you want to compare to opti, opti was at 130p nearly four years ago! Now if you have anything coherent to discuss, i'm all ears.
Aqua,
Yes, I have. I am not sure what to make of it? On the one hand, it establishes the ability to scale production for "bulk" orders for potential partners. On the other hand, hitting on the quote option opens up a window which creates confusion because at least three big names I have often suggested would be ideal partners, one of which, DSM, has worked with OPTI for some years. Cargill was also listed. However, when I searched through their product offerings, SweetBiotix did not appear. Now, it could be I did not look hard enough.
I am told SOH has been asked for comment but refuses to confirm or deny! I am not even sure what they mean or the context of the question put to him?
I genuinely hope it represents a milestone and the eagerly anticipated global conglomerate is announced soon. Even so, will it result in a consumer-facing product within 12 months? Not if nothing has changed since my conversation with SOH before Christmas.
Tin hat for when Toyin arrives! :)
The last time elrico did an exponential sales forecast was the word of mouth forecast which was a total fail so lets hope his new exponential one is better although I have serious doubts.As usual he jumps in to claim credit for a share price rise but of course falls are not credited to him.There will be a reason for this buying but it won't have anything to do with Elric's writings.
We are not sure which statements are tongue in cheek but re Opti is he buying?, is he selling?,is he in? is he out? I assume it is SP dependent so no doubt we will soon here he was piling in at 20 with his mate belgrano!
It looks like I was spot on with my 10K buy in which was reported on here 30 seconds after clicking buy.An algorithm by the way is a flow chart with a fancy name change and I wouldn't trust in anybody using one!
Some news is on the way and the market is telling us that and I am hopeful that the positivity will continue as I claw my money back.I also stuck 5K in Opti today hoping that the trend would be my friend..[100 down so far!!]
Not surprised to see the raft of sells today after that excellent rise yesterday. was bound to attract momentum buyers who saw the price starting to break out with no official news which in many other stocks can be a sign of a leaky ship. when no official announcement today they reversed holding and left. Guess the strategy works now and again and the rewards can outplay losses.
Letitrun,
I am sure you come back and apologise for your remarks about the algorithm, which is used by institutions unless the Company providing the data is lying. You seem to ignore the simple fact that most of my subscribers know how I operate. Insulting people as you have, and doing so on the back of official screengrabs that show the data tells us more about your agenda, and bitterness because I sold your precious OPTI. Please explain how anyone can "exaggerate" screengrabs? Do you understand the folly of your premise?
You really shouldn't open doors you would rather I stay behind, but given you have held one open for me, I am going to walk through it. Skipping past the blarney of OPTI delivering on its forecasts, it still needed to sell 25% of the 45% of the family silver in just three years. This is not me being bitter, or lashing out, I said as much to SOH several times.
If you pin your ears back and actually listen to what the SBTX CEO says, you may have heard him confirm Croda is on schedule. Moreover, Sederma's VIP clients have been receiving the lysate. Why do you think this?
Perhaps I do you a disservice and you are actually attempting to be cute by baiting me into producing the latest data? I doubt this, your history doesn't betray you!