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If they issue shares then they have to RNS it. It’s a waiting game.
how do we know they didnt pay off the debt? Im not saying they didnt, but a PI called the company and they said they wouldnt RNS if they did. Anyway i guess we will soon find out if it has been due to the 7 day vwap.
that was... from friday 17th jan
Too, as an afterthought, if they did go for the equity version, then the 7-day VWAP from Friday will probably be done by tomorrow/Wednesday and I would expect a conversion notice to be given then (and then SAVP will have to issue an RNS), and then this squeeze on the SP to stop, and to rise soon after from that, to 20-22p.
[I would then put the decision to go for equity conversion, rather than cash repayment, down to a bad decision worthy of third-rate management rather than any real shortage of cash.]
Yes, Miti, this was my concern - seemed total madness not to pay off the loan rather than dilute - and the the company then gets all secretive on us about what they've done with the loan.
With lack of information from SAVP I've been left investing in the dark - not a situation I would willingly buy into.
Frankly, though, if they were not cash rich at this stage then it would seem tantamount to fraud.
I trust that is not so. So I remain invested. But not as one happy happy shareholder.
happysparrow, yes that's the theory .So why wasn't the $5million paid off just now to replace a facility which decimates the share price ? SAVP are a long way off being cash rich imo. Hopefully by 2021 if everything goes to plan but thats a big if imo. That's why the share price has languished for so long.
Miti - thanks for that. I'd agree that the dilution and overhang from the bondholders has been the central problem, (and the lack of promised newsflow) - but the 7E deal was meant to have ended the previous cash shortage - the $75m on deal completion, the paying down of $40m debt, the $10m monthly FCF projection, - I would have thought it was a fair assumption that we were cash rich at this stage; perhaps even considering a large acquisition.
Am I completely wrong on this?
Well played miti. You're a star, and I'm a plonker pi. Nuff said.
I'm certainly no genius and have lost on SAVP overall but I'll give you my views fwiw.
If you forget all the hype spouted by others on here , brokers and AK, the reality has been SAVP has been cash strapped over the past few years and loaded with bondholders who have had their shares converted to equity and have just dumped the shares. This is the sole consideration which we , as shareholders , have overlooked.
Going forward , If you ignore the hype of potential cashflows , right now savp just does not have enough cash to even repay the 5 million loan without diluting the shares further. They don't have the funds to develop Niger. These are plain facts and why the shares are languishing at 17p. AK takes his huge salary in the meantime and shareholders get royally screwed.
As for brokers, they are just sharks who roll out the same story as the company whilst totally ignoring the facts about cashflow.
Until, the actual cashflows from the Seven deal , materialise in the balance sheet , its hard to see much progress in the share price . Any cash flow this year will get eaten up in costs and fees and development costs so 2020 is a write off imo. I can see SAVP raising money this year, unless they can get a farm in for Niger, but in all honesty , I don't think that anyone will farm into Niger at this stage when all they have done is drill successful wells which were all low lying fruit.
Personally , I'm not buying at 17p .I'd prefer to take the risk it will drift lower or wait till they raise some capital which of course will be at the expense of shareholders.
The lessons I've learnt through SAVP for the future and investing in any other small oil or mining stocks....forget the hype and follow the cash .Moreover , if there are bondholders holding equity, just stay well away from investing in the equity or sell any spikes. As an example, I've traded and invested in hur very well over the past year using such parameters.
Miti I would be interested to hear your view as to why so may brokers have universally been way off the mark. Why do you think so many got the post 7E Market Cap so wrong and how do you see things developing from here. Where do you see the SP in a year or so
Miti - I've just read back through your posts - very prescient. Well done.
But how did you know that AK would not deliver on his promised newsflow to this extent?
And will you now be buying back in in quantity?
Well Olderandwiser and others, seems I was right about my 17p forecast on SAVP after the Seven acquisition. Nuff said.
Agadem,
That's all very well and good re the possibility of a farm in deal with the likes of a CNPC, but we've had about 2 years now of inactivity in Niger, during which time surely AK and his management team could have already struck the right deal with someone with deep pockets. Why not? And why don't they explain publicly the delay in activity? It doesn't give confidence that they do have, in fact, a grand long term plan because timely execution is definitely NOT one of SAVP's strengths. So many examples now of this.
Hasn't moved as fast as we like but i still view the investment as compelling. I actually think some investors understand the simpler form of just investing in a pure exploration company such as the Niger assets - ie find lots of oil, increase the value and sell on to a bigger player and i think this is one of the main drags on the performance of the share price for the company as Niger progress has been slow.
I remain firmly convinced that this is a big company in the making and that means studying all the elements and strands of the business.
If we were just an oil/gas explorer - that's one thing.
But also a significant gas producer (and oil producer in the making).
Accugas - an opportunity as big in sales/revenue as to being just an explorer/producer.
Calabar Cross River state - 561 MW power station. 5 gas turbines of 25-30 mmcf/d each. 125 - 150 mmcf/d (20,800 - 25,000 boepd).
Alaoji Ibom state - 450 MW (currently avaialbile) power station. 4 gas turbines of 25-30 mmcf/d each. 100-120 mmcf/d (16,600 - 20,000 boepd).
Alaoji design cpacity is 1,074 MW so in effect a future full potential with additional turbines installed would mean an additional potential supply requirement of 23,000 - 27,500 boepd in addtion to above.
That is down the road but with 25,000 MW planned - Siemens apparently supported by the German government is to help build a 1350 MW p/station at Abuja, 1350 MW at Kaduna, 1350 MW at Kano and 450 MW at Lagos. The shortfall to 25,000 MW will be made up from upgrading existing stations and building new smaller stations with investment funding.
It's clear that existing power stations also have to be upgraded if they are to deliver. Siemens aren't only involved with new power stations but entire infrastructure from lines, sub-stations to metering etc.
We also supply Ibom Power as well as the Unicem cement plant on long term contracts.
In the Accugas element -Through it's existing customers Savp could more than double or triple it's production over time and this i beleive is why AAIM have been a significant direct investor. We have key infrastructure. That's a big buisness oppportunity solely for the Accugas side that we own (80%).
Seperate to Accugas - additional gas and oil field opportunities down the road to grow reserves/production.
I remain firmly convinced that this is a big company in the making and that means studying all the elements and strands of the business.
If we were just an oil/gas explorer as an investment case - that's one thing.
But also a significant gas producer (and oil producer in the making).
Accugas - an opportunity as big in sales/revenue as to being just a stand alone explorer/producer.