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....especially in the power sector.
That would go against the mood music the Nigerian government had been playing before the oil price crash, i.e. they wanted to encourage foreign investment in the energy sector.
That made me smile, NtoM - the idea that the Nigerians would quite like the World Bank to pay off their debts - but not sure what comes after that? if it wasn't for the debt, I think then the most promising scenario in the situation where the Nigerians are not paying us long term (as with 7E), might be to sell the assets to the government for whatever we could get, exit the country, and, probably with a new BoD, plough the money into Niger. This is what many of us first invested for. Maybe that's a positive?
Here's something also mildly positive. My calculation was out yesterday in that Jan-Sept is 9 months, not 6,, hence it would be June 2020 by which time the projected unpaid invoices would be $132m.
ATB
I can confirm that the Guarantee has not been invoked. This would have been a material event.
I said that other oilies were issuing updates to reassure their suffering shareholders that they can weather the storms. We’d like one as well please, assuming it’s not of the jumping of a cliff variety.
Towards trying to get you to say something positive here.. maybe / hopefully anyway :-)
Yesterday you wrote :
''There is no evidence available from SAVP on this - that is why we need the RNS.
The article states there were unpaid invoices of $66m for Jan-Sep 2019. Projected at the same rate, by March 2020 there will be unpaid invoices of $132m. According to the article, the guarantee is for a maximum of $118m. Then project for a further 6 months!. The Nigerian Govt is far less able to pay now that the oil price has fallen well below their budget predication. And just how effective is a guarantee that, if you call on it, you will damage the credit rating of a country and lose the goodwill of the Nigerian Government to the extent that you might as well exit the country (perhaps a good thing?)?
These 'unpaid invoices' are of critical importance. We need that RNS.''
I offer back:
If things go very badly in a PoO sense for a while then Nigeria's Credit rating would be downgraded by the agencies anyway. If that happens then calling on the guarantee could be done without incurring bad will from the Nigerian Government ? In fact they then might even encourage such happening at such a time?
Thanks Paul.
That’s exactly my question.
Thanks Paul and I agree with you on that.
How much of the owed amount has actually now been paid versus still o/s - including the latest 3 months bills - -is still a question people want to know the answer to?
The $118m is correct
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/pt/189151501855342963/pdf/ITK425962-201707040958.pdf
Invoking this must be material so I think we can be reasonably confident that this is not the case.
Speaking of the virus.
What I find difficult to believe is that most of China’s new cases are now always between 20 and 40. If I was being sceptical I would say that the Chinese Govt are giving false readings to give the impression that they have it under control.
Hopefully they have and I’m talking rubbish but the rest of the World have got some pain to come b4 normal service resumes. Time to secure the hatch and hibernate for 6 months I think. I’m going to have to start using both sides of the loo roll soon now that the shelves have started to empty. I wouldn’t mind but the symptoms of the virus don’t include the 5hits so I don’t understand why the public are panic buying loo rolls.
I would like to think that if there was an issue with payments then some of the ii might have sold down but there doesn’t appear to be any evidence of that.
That published article has certainly ruffled a few feathers.
Speaking of the virus :
South Korea is probably/ hopefully starting to come out the other side now. For those who might say China did a massive cover up of true extent of the problem, I note that South Korea is an open democratic country where any meaningful cover ups would be heard about one way or other. It has now tested approx. 190,000 .. far far more than any western country.. and is reporting approx 7500 confirmed infections and 55 deaths . It has a population of approx. 50 million. And this was one of the more severely affected countries so far. Even accepting plenty with mild symptoms might never be tested, the figures are tiny, minuscule even???????
And today I hear Angela Merkel say up to 70 per cent of Germans could be infected. What are the mathematical probabilities of that from these underlying forecasting models? Legally, that should have to be included in the same sentence imho.
I just took 75k off the table so I have some risk funds if I need to average down got 7.785 for the ones I paid 7.75 for. Enough for a pint! I’m putting 2 and 2 together and making 6 but I think if AK had good news on cash it will be out tomorrow latest else he would have put it in last RNS. I think the govt has its hands full (rightly) with cv19. Our next eventual RNS will be a cpr that will say we got loads of potential stuff the market already knows and there will be nothing about what we want to hear other than the rhetorical waiting parlance. I so hope I got it all wrong not for my now small position but for others that have done a lot of leg work and heavily invested in this one. fking virus!! Gla.
Trek
1000000 could just be dumped by any of us worriers here. This is pure stress.
I'd be very disappointed if they don't issue an 'update' RNS within the next 7 business days. One is clearly required now.
(In the absence of an update RNS soon, and given the latest macro environment, my guess is this s/p would be more likely to go down from latest approx. 7.75p than up. If that RNS is delivered obviously the contents of it will be the key driver of the s/p direction, at least in the short term)
Complete silence from the company. Not answering emails. How many here actually talked to them? Seems like only 3 or 4. Were you satisfied with their answer?
The mystery cash position.
Someone has just dumped 2 x 500k at all time lows. Hopefully that’s the end of it now but I still couldn’t say which is looking stronger 5p or 15p. Sad thing is if we hit 15p we’d be delighted, I get Zens past examples of massive sp recoveries but atm I’m at a loss to gauge what the catalyst is from our absent management team. Perhaps they are self isolating and enjoying a good box set. FFS!
Trek
I think the debt restructuring if not already agreed may be put on the back burner as i cannot see any finance company taking the risk at present on these kind of assets even though Central Banks will inject massive fiscal stimulus (i hope i am wrong).
Going the wrong way - Abu Dhabi announced and increase in production today - they are hooked on spending and need the cash for the ongoing projects - development is moving forward at a rapid pace - falling revenues offset by pumping out more.
Saudi Arabia also further increased production - at current prices they will run out of financial reserves in 5years ( a long time) and are responding by pumping out more.
The gradual pull back in US shale oil production will take time as holes become depleted but is the only good spot on the horizon for oil prices.
As for SAVPs cash position - who knows - is this why the long slow decline was on anyway? Who knows?
An interesting read, look through the lens of where SAVP are compared to macro and indebted oilies. Sure there’s a storm to weather but when you factor in everything other than time (and trust me I know how short that is!) we with our income, balance sheet and low production costs are in a better position than most, and gas! well at least more than most. I know I am not an oil techie but I would like to think I’m pretty good at reading the tea leaves and like I posted before you can (ffs for the not grown up) IMVHO China and Russia will milk this opportunity to screw the US economy and shale as much as they can. It won’t be collusion but the said is unsaid. They don’t want Trump in again, love or loathe but ffs understand what a threat he is to them (think back to Obama). I am one that admires Trump, hot and cold but he does so much good like pulling up Syria on the red line of chemical warfare even if that meant collateral Russian casualties to telling NATO to go swivel for not paying their way and then he fks up big time on climate change. So be pragmatic and get the gist he’s a threat to communism and a threat big time to their raison d etre, ( fking spell checker) but you get my gist. So what does that mean to SAVP. Well there’s a storm brewing, this is just the start, imo everything hinges on cv19 and how that plays out in the US, and I think China and Russia are milking this. They know that their top down economies can pull all the strings for cv19. Trump can’t. There’s gonna be blood on the streets but Savp will come good especially for those that have managed to trade down. Time (I wish) gla imo bla bla
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-what-do-these-bombed-out-oil-stocks-ii510827?utm_source=IBMW&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Afternoon_round_up_newsletter_100320&utm_content=&spMailingID=8892018&spUserID=MTQyNzM1ODMyODU2S0&spJobID=1471983310&spReportId=MTQ3MTk4MzMxMAS2
Trek
Paul, I've asked SAVP in writing that very question twice.....,I've asked them to confirm the current cash position and to confirm that all monies due are being paid and have been paid to date. They have refused to even acknowledge my request.
IMHO they should be updating shareholders at least quarterly on critical information like this - for example if GKP and GENEL can do it monthly why can't SAVP? what are they hiding?
I remain "out" until I can see greater visibility on earnings and proper transparency from the CEO.
Yeah just pop in and say hello let us know you’re well, whether you’re still invested here.
Hope you are still hanging in here. ATB.
Paul, please get back to us after your chat with the company. Hopefully some clarity.
https://www.thecable.ng/exclusive-accugas-moves-against-nigeria-issues-notice-of-default-over-calabar-genco
I think this is the article being referred to.. happy to stand corrected on that... its the one I read at least :-)
I have never had any contact with SAVP or reps. but others here have regularly.. eg Zengas