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TiL - AK has always said that bringing in a partner was a very credible option.
By the way I was promised some replies from IR about 3 weeks ago but have not received anything.
Zengas - Thanks for your interesting cost basis analysis for Niger Agadem development. I am wondering if they want to do some of the work programme solo to prove up the blocks more than perhaps bringing in a partner further down the line would provide a better deal. As supposed to now although if are getting a good partnership now which means it allows us to be more aggressive in Niger quickly than it wouldn't be a bad option as well.
I can't remember but have savannah ever mentioned bringing in a partner in the more recent years ?
With Great Wall drilling having a base and rigs i'd say this is the best option in the immediate term.
We'd need a crew and how experienced might they be plus spares etc and pipe where that's probably already carried and with GWs success/experience it might be better to rely on them on a per well basis.
In 2021 completion and production testing of Amdigh, Eridal, Bushiya and Kunama was costed at $7.7m.
EPF $4.3m.
Other Capex for flowlines between the 4 fields, the export station and civil works $5.4m.
Total $17.4m.
We are supposed to be within 30km of the export pipeline though no cost for this connection given.
However in the costings Save were going to build a pipeline from Amdigh to Gounmeri at a cost of $16.9m (bringing the overall total up to $34.3m).
In another slide (Fig 6:3) this was shown as 90 km from Amdigh to Gounmeri.
Also the flow lines were approx 25km between the fields tying to Amdigh ie 7 km Kunama to Eridal. Another 7 km onward flowline Eridal to Amdigh and an 11 km flowline from Bushiya straight to Amdigh.
The 90km $16.9m pipeline from Amdigh to Gounmeri shows that you could reasonably connect more distant satellite fields of 50-100+ mmmbls (if discovered) at low cost imo.
With Sinopec after 4 adjacent Agadem blocks, surely it could be an attractive deal to do something with us. Perhaps a swap on their 30+ million boe 2C gas at Stubb Creek and a bit more in exchange for onward 50% cost of drilling etc. Stubb Creek would convert to 2P once we had a sanctioned development plan as in Niger.
On Niger, I would want Savannah to purchase a drilling rig and any associated equipment and store in Niger, as supposed to hiring rigs, plenty of drilling and exploration to be done in Niger purchasing a rig and having it fully available at all times for drilling in Niger would be so beneficial in getting an expediated work programme in Niger in place and alleviate and time lag, Plus over time the cost of a drill rig would easily pay back overtime and it allows much more operational flexibility.
Based on my previous experience working with AIM Cos, Nomad will be about £20k/qtr, PR £7k/qtr and each of the brokers £5k/qtr. Happy Days ! Lets hope they have something to do before too long..
Moho30 - I reckon I can do a better PR Job than whoever they are paying, and probably for 1/10 of the price. Perhaps I should be on Savannah payroll afterall the time and effort in research I make.................................. has to be rewarded.................. ;)
That's why the Financial PR people earn the big bucks ! Been a cushy ride for Nomad, Broker and Fin PR for over a year. Assume they're still pulling their quarterly retainers.
They finally realised they has a twitter social media account lol
First Tweet in months from Savannah
https://x.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1766040104798155177?s=20
All good , lets hope AK and Save haven't just been sitting on there ar--s regarding Niger as we have discussed on here many times we believe absolutely zilch for Niger is attributed in the SP, so positive news here will be a welcome tonic.
Hopefully my earlier comment about getting 5,000 bopd from Niger and debottleneck Uquo from 2,000 bopd to 5,000 bopd this year will get us to 10,000 bopd of oil production without an acquisition
Really positive article on Niger from SP. Oil is already flowing through pipeline for storage tanks in Benin ready for first cargo lift end of april or early may
Mentions Savannah Energy
Savannah Energy, the only Western company operating in Niger, hopes to bring a 1,500 b/d oil project onstream in coming months, before ramping up to 5,000 b/d.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/030724-niger-on-verge-of-first-oil-exports-with-110000-bd-benin-pipeline-completed-sources
Morning all, another week down all quiet on the Savannah front.
In other news looks like we could potentially explore renewables opportunity in Tunisia
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aidabenghorbal_uk-tunisia-sustainable-energy-cooperation-activity-7171731439095418881-C9H0?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Thanks Zengas - It would be interesting to see how Gran Tiera conversation proceed and the substantial pivot from nationalising 12 months ago to now trying to bring in a partner.
Perhaps this was the deby plan all along nationalise the asset to please public for the elections which are in May once he secures the election than perhaps pivot away from nationalisation
Good to see Nigeria continuing to execute reform to increase sentiment and investments in oil and gas sector through executive orders, here is hoping to another asset preferably an oil asset even a small one with small production numbers and development and exploration potential would be nice in the range of 5,000 - 10,000 bopd.
https://saharareporters.com/2024/03/06/tinubu-signs-three-executive-orders-reform-nigerias-oil-and-gas-sector
Also just reverting back to Niger,
Saves Chinese partner in Stubb Creek were negotiating for R5, 6 & 7 in Agadem last May. Surely if anyone is negotiating for those blocks there could surely be some partner interest for our block previously known as R1, 2, 3 & 4.
Trust - I can't see Gran Tierra or any publically listed company getting involved in a disputed asset until the case is resolved.
The Petronas Doba fields and pipeline share in Chad is a different matter.
Nothing on GTEs website at all but they are still looking for assets and i think SHT have inadvertently put those discussions up on facebook.
This from AI just under 2 years ago ( i didn't renew a subscription at their exorbitant prices) 18 months ago.
' New kid on the African blocks
In addition to Tullow Oil, another Canadian firm will potentially join the Elumelu venture to take over SPDC: Gran Tierra. This company produces around 30,000 b/d in Colombia and Ecuador but has never been in business in Africa. However, the elections in Colombia at the end of May 2022 have raised concerns that the oil sector could be put at risk if the radical left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro is elected. Petro, a senator and former mayor of Bogotá, has hammered home the point that he would invest massively in renewable energy and block any new hydrocarbon exploration in the country. Gran Tierra is thus counting on Nigeria to flourish in the event of a change of policy in Colombia.
Although Gran Tierra does not yet have a stake in Africa, its chairman and CEO Gary S. Guidry knows the continent well, as he is also a director of Africa Oil (which bought Petrobras in Nigeria and is engaged in exploration in Namibia, South Africa and Kenya). Guidry was also CEO of Caracal Energy between 2011 and 2014, which operates blocks in southern Chad that were sold to Glencore. The trader himself has just concluded the sale of his assets to Perenco in 2021 (AI, 19/01/22).'
I for one hope that Savannah are well informed on this and to be spiteful I hope Savannah are getting there lawyers involved in case chad start to sell the Exxon stake to another party.
Thanks zengas and I must say a brilliant find. For the rest link below.
This makes it more frustrating clearly it’s more personal with Savannah if they don’t want us. On the finer detail. I wonder if they are going to sell the whole Petronas stake on or part of stake from their current holding excluding Exxon / Savannah stake which is being arbitrated.
Surely they can’t touch Exxon stake until arbitration is concluded and gran tiera wouldn’t want to be caught up in buying a stake which is being arbitrated unless through mediation Savannah and chad have perhaps reached an agreement that chad can find a buyer of their choice who is willing to pay the same price as we did for the stake which was circa $400m, Exxon get there outstanding balance and we get the rest for our troubles.
On second thoughts I feel chad bitten of more they could chew with nationalising and now to save face they can’t go back to Savannah as politically it would look comical so best option is find a new buyer I.e gran tiera and spin the story to say that they found a better deal when in reality it’s the same
https://m.facebook.com/sht.tchad
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1765402411449885044
I sense it's fill-or-kill before this.
But we've all been reading tea leaves for months given the IR Omertà.
Zengas - I am guessing Savannah are waiting to see if they are wanted in south sudan otherwise no point on sponsoring and wasting time an money.
I am still skeptical of the wildcat announcement as I don't believe there is quotes from official government sources on this and besides wildcat announcement is just smoke without any substance and lacks substantial detail. I am yet to see the South Sudan government officially approve a producing or exploration licence.
It would be interesting to see the full progamme and speakers and if Save are on it.
No sign of too many sponsors yet either and again if Save will be one (they were lasyt year).
About 15-16 weeks away with tickets on sale for the SSOP 2024.
There's a news link to tiddler Wildcat Petroleum a few weeks ago getting clearance to take part for oil/gas assets but still nothing on Save after all this time.
Trust
"It's clear to see nationalising the asset and taking over petronas stake without a plan will only lead to lack of investment and they simply don't have the technical expertise to increase production."
Go to SHTs f/b page and you will see they had meetings with Gran Tierra (GTE) yesterday in Chad.
Does that sound like a slight change of tune?
The possibility of a little light coming through, at last?