Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Komakino as far as I am aware 28th isn't a fixed date, Savannah will have a choice to ask for further extension or either re-admit without formal approval or terminate the transaction, But the choice will be Savannah's. They could still come to the market without formal approval, although I believe the preference has always been to come with approval in hand. So it's not entirely out the question that we re-admit without approval and than they target government approval by let's say 31st December 2023..........
Thanks KK
The other assertion from Sunbed was that the 28th is a fixed date from the Nomad who wouldn't sanction a further extension. More sceptical on that one but as I say it's anyone's guess.
No, unfortunately there's no provenance for any of Sunbed's assertions, so it's up to the individual to decide for themselves whether to believe or not. Personally I suspect they are true but would be nice to have at least a general idea where the information comes from.
There appears to be a suggestion on the advance board by Sunbed that AK has had to meet Petronas urgently in Dubai as SS aren't comfortable with Save taking over the assets. I can't actually find the post itself when i have scrolled through advance and indeed i don't post on there. Has anyone else seen or heard anything regarding this ?
They don't usually put up the AGM video on the website, so suspect not hubenstein. Either way, we should get some more detail on Niger at some point this year, assuming we come back to market at some point!
Yes - I wasn't clear. I was referring to first oil from Niger. Very happy to be wrong but my take away was that he didn't recognise the q4 2024 target and that it would be before then, q3 at the latest. The testing would be q4 this year. Will there be a chance to revisit it?
My understanding has always been that Savannah wants to return to the market with a big deal now whether that's south sudan deal or something equivalent who knows at this stage, I believe they will not want to return to the market without a sizeable acquisition and than being at the risk of being suspended once more if they continue to pursue large acquisitions, so ideally they need to use the current window if possible and wouldn't surprise me if they continue to extend it further until they land one sizeable deal fully, by sizeable I mean a deal equal or great to 50,000 bopd.
He definetly said first oil would be in Q4 this year.
Hi hubenstein, if you're referring to Niger first oil I heard it as q4 this year. The question was referring to a broker note that said first oil Q4 2024 and AK was clear that it was this year.
Zengas'notes copied below suggest the same
'Niger - Flow testing in Q4. Book up to 35 mmbls as reserves by year end/early 2024. First oil earlier than previously indicated. As for further exploration, waiting for development up and runnning - pacing it on self funding or bringing in a partner. '
I heard it would be before q4 next year, q3 at the latest. I assumed q3 2024?
Did AK say SS progressing well just cannot comment at this time? I honestly hope this silence means good not bad! As for Chad Cameroon let’s hope we walk away without loss; a small profit is a huge success in my book.
I finally got into the AGM about 10-15 mins late. Yes, nothing shared at all on Chad / Cameroon or SS. Nigeria looks very good and Niger highly promising. My best guess is we eventually exit both Chad and Cameroon with our money back and a small return (via arbitration if necessary) and South Sudan completes this quarter with another mid sized acquisition announced and shares lifted from suspension but lots of possibilities either way. I’m not particularly bothered about the suspension as long as the underlying business continues to do well - at least it protects us from wild emotional swings (both up and down) on rumours about how the various deals are going
No questions were answered before, during or after the AGM on anything to do with Chad, Cameroon or South Sudan , with a three line whip there to enforce the diktat.
Any update on Chad debacle. Monies etc
Thanks Zengas, really good summary notes. For those in the meeting room the sound quality on the AK Zoom dial in was very poor, so Zengas has picked up good detail which I reckon at least half the room couldn’t hear.
To add to below notes - not in any order other than meeting order - so points aren’t linked consecutively:-
-$8m cost of pipeline
- Renewables - envisaged timeline 2024->2026 - debt financing not foreseen to be an issue given liquidity for renewables excellent - projects involve partnerships
- question on share dilution - AK said would only ever happen if material deal that was In interests of the shareholders
- gas trade receivables increases as 25% increase in commitments and commensurate increase in credit provision
- naira - usd denominated gas sales meant v positive moving forwards for save . Also- means refinance opportunity. Prior to devaluation save converted deposits into dollars and also used some for Compression project as required significant CapEx
- Nigerian diesel and petrol subsidies removed by Gov means increase doubling of petrol and diesel prices to the consumer. Diesel used for generators as well as transport - quite different to Europe. On other hand, this makes electricity from gas more attractive as has only increased by 40% with fx adjustment.
I’d add that
1 - the IR team clearly we’re trying their best to get people in to the meeting - it was flagged that comms were sn issue and Sally & team did her best.
2 - existing and new Chairman attended in person
3 - the new Chairman is very impressive
4 - - most unfortunate AK/CEO and NB/CFO not there in person - but some new NEDs there in person - assume it was because of a very important conflict for ask and NB - it would have been good if this had been explained / apology given
5 - brilliant to hear so much today from CEO who we know is ‘across’ everything but also important to demonstrate a broader and senior team - CFO should have presented financials / numbers / Naira issue & thrown back to CEO - but not the end of the world - just an opportunity missed
Thanks Zeng. I missed most of it. Joined very much towards the end. Would have loved more clarity on Chad/Cameroon.
My condensed take on the Q&A
Nigeria - Phenomenal opportunities in the power sector. Hyrocarbon space - opportunities for assets that will be sold to raise funds for Government. Last gas customer that opened up a completely new revenue stream paid all pipeline connection costs to supply gas. Naira peg removal good for us. No loss from true-up clause.
No further Uquo exploration planned as a lot of nearby available gas (my take it is cheaper to buy in than spend drilling funds to explore for new gas other than the 2C). Biggest focus is getting more gas and more customers. Magin 77% and a lot more growth to come via pipeline capacity at 400-600 mmcf/d (66-100k boepd) depending on supply route (for 3rd party gas and our own CPF.
Niger - Flow tseting in Q4. Book up to 35 mmbls as reserves by year end/early 2024. First oil earlier than previously indicated. As for further exploration, waiting for development up and runnning - pacing it on self funding or bringing in a partner.
Company has as much focus on hyrocarbons as renewables.
Looking for 2 types of hydrocarbon assets. If i heard correctly smilar to S.Sudan/Chad size and also bolt-ons. Not thinking about net debt limitations. Thinking only of 'risk and exposure' and returns perspective on investment and being accretive to shareholders. Riskier assets non recourse debt to the company. Would only issue equity if deals are worth it for investors - so imo i think we could be possibly buying 100k boepd+ as time goes on and maybe a lot more - if they are the right deals in the context already given.
Dividend (non payment) comment - Significant growth coming for the company given as alternative - though in my own capacity would still like to see maiden dividend of at least $10m - I think Chad issue put paid to this.
With that - waiting for lifting of suspension, S.Sudan conclusion, possible operational news/deals from Accugas, Niger operations start and at least one further hydocarbon deal over the coming 2nd half.
That's great news on the fx. Super-kind of you to share, komakino.
The IR performance at these events is.... well....eeerm...
He also confirmed first oil from Niger would be this year and not Q4 next year as one of the broker notes stated.
You haven’t missed much not attending. Nothing on Chad/Cameroon, SS. Hope this implying SS deal all good.
Registered again approaching 11:am, got the link halfway through the meeting.
This is the 3rd AGM where i have registered and never got sent the link until I emailed them after it was sent out.
Managed to get in for the q&a session though.
CYB, with regard to your question on the Naira devaluation the other day, AK said it was a big positive for the company and referred to the true up clause to confirm there would be no loss of revenue from the devaluation. No questions on Chad/Cameroon/SS allowed, so just focused on Niger and Nigeria.
It worked perfectly for me.
Go back to the days of having to email someone to register! This system clearly doesn't work.
Happened in 2021 but they later gave a link to the video. Will they do that again?
Disappointing.
I got bumped out. Tried to dial I again and it says the host has locked the meeting. Rang the company, got an answerphone.
This has been a total shambles. Disgrace.