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Struggling on Spights, struggling on. Yesterday also good for some of mine though coming after a bad week, 10 days its hasn't really got back to square one. Faith and patience being sorely tested. What news are you expecting here?
Hi Rogue very well thankyou
How are you?A good day for my shares
Except for my holding in Saga
Enjoy the sun
Hi Spights. you ok?
I think it's all been said until some kind of news drops tbh.
This is very quiet.
Where is everyone
I am expecting news any day
Directline have turned down a £3.1Billion bid
As the insurance sector recovers SAGA must be on someone’s radar !!
Just drfting on low volume but bet it recovers towards close of play!
Hey. Yeah I know what you mean and agree about the goodwill (at least it's not cash). I shall be very wary if I see that again anywhere else! If it wasn't for yer man buying in and now the possible ship deal then I would have been probably half what I am now (very slight uplift from my historical).
Totally agree re 2-5 view. Its kind of take each part, look at this year and what hits it, and then say what does that look like without all the impediment, is that possible and then see what fantasy MC it gives. Money tied up for now-it owes me a little. You never quite get that, one grows, you cash it and throw into another at the bottom do you? AH well we'd only get bored sipping Margaritas by the sea!
Cheers
Hey Rogue
To be fair my team is doing well, so happy on that front!
To be honest I really don’t know. Feels like a bring out your dead year to me, so get any insurance goodwill that needs to be written off done, be realistic and honest about future insurance performance. If the margins have dropped, are they going to drop more? What does a sustainable book look like? A good result for me would just be clarity on what the business looks like in 2-5 years time.
You’re right about the £6 inventive winding me up, it’s just a load of hot air and ridiculous numbers cooked up by a CEO that was so woefully out his depth it was crazy!
Looks like cruise is at max capacity and revenue so not sure how much more can be squeezed out of that but if there some sort of sale and lease back option to help reduce debt that’s fine. Travel isn’t my background so really not sure how those deals work and what the options are.
I hope the business does well as long term holders deserve it, but my investment here is pretty much non existent now so I will watch with much less stress from the sidelines.
Hi Billzo you were obviously unhappy at 1704 Saturday? Football results not to your liking? :)
Where we are now due to historic goodwill being unwound (I assume it was loaded up to make the IPO juicy?), the ship debt and the unknown on insurance returns.
Next month we will know what that looks like and at some point we may have the debt position improved by a leaseback/whatever or we may not. Even if we do that will affect EBITDa but at least then there is a this is what it looks like now position and then you will have to make your mind up where it could get to when insurance recovers, travel steadies and costs are under control? I am relatively lucky to have an average below 2 so I think I'll get back and when it goes there I will see how I feel. Billzo you're about the same price? WRT Roger acting as a bank I thought when that was announced the view overall was that it wasn't any more expensive than the banks? And as for Babu being able to hoover up cheap shares, if indeed he still is, so could we if we were so inclined? Volumes low until results I think. As for the 6 quid which I know winds you up, I'll say I don't know now until results, market cap low due to the above so clear that lot and it will be well north of where are now which in any event would probably be enough for most on here, not that there are that many now compared to the 2020 covid recovery share club. Like exams, in a few weeks time it will be all over!
Do you have view on what good might look like?
Batfasted,
main reason is very low volume can swing this share plus they need to refinance and not use rogers money.
If they did a sale and leaseback on their cruise ships things would look a lot better on the balance sheet.
Because back then, insurance was still seen to be a cash cow and was generating decent revenue and profits with travel expected to come back to profitability post pandemic.
We now know the insurance business is in dire straits and the group is reliant on Roger bailing it out as it’s been built on a debt mountain.
Previous directors didn’t control costs which have spiralled out of control over the past few years so yeah, the business is probably in a worse position now than it was a few years ago.
Hopefully the new CEO will sort the mess out and the travel partnership talk is interesting but the days of talking about £6 a share are long gone.
What is going on with this share? The BOD issue some vague reference to possible partnership agreements but we don’t know any more because they can’t reveal any details at this stage. So shareholders like us are kept in the dark while others like the man from the UAE are buying cheap shares.
How can this share be worth less now than at the depths of the pandemic before the 15:1 consolidation? Something is wrong and small shareholders should be given an explanation.
Luckyin
In the H1 Report ..p24
https://corporate.saga.co.uk/media/krtft4dd/saga-plc-2023-24-interim-results-statement-vf.pdf
Late surge on tiny volume. This is just such a volatile share
Open annual report.
Word search "Reserves"?
Wild stab in the dark.....
Presuming that underwriting a diversity of risks requires reserves to be placed to one side, as policies underwritten today, may not be settled for years. The reserves needed, could either be understimated or overestimated to ensure payouts.
Where do I find total Saga reserves available and the amount used made of these reserves in last few years.
Help appreciated.
Appreciate the clarification 👍🏻 have a great weekend
Hi Billzo,
The Net Debt figure was £711.7M in January 23
The Net Debt figure was £657.4M in September 23
The Net Debt figure will have increased slightly as stated in Januarys Trading update as cash was in the range £135-145M
Net Debt will remain in the £600M’s but remember the company is now generating positive cash !
I would expect Net Debt to be sub £600M by Jan 25
Happy Weekend
I have the net debt figure at £711m…..appreciate it’s obvious but that includes the available cash, which is essentially the bond payment……so the debt figure will remain at £711m after the bond is paid if they use all available cash which they won’t as they’ll be using more credit from Roger…..so the net debt position might increase?
In last years Annual Report Ship Debt was 469.2M pounds.
Total Net Debt was 657.4M pounds.
150M Bond will be paid in May 2024 from a combination of Cash and loan from RDH.
Current value of the 2 Cruise ships is ?? My guess 800M pounds
These 2 Ships will make 80M+ pounds EBITDA
However the Interest , Taxes , Depreciation and Amortisation will be close to 50M pounds
So the net profit of the 2 Cruise ships will be closer to 35M pounds
Happy Weekend
The market value is now based largely on what it is to commission similar ships. This will be most important in any sale or leaseback deal. Intrinsic value has increased significantly and when added to the load factor makes them very desirable!
Thanks Bilizo, do you know how much debt they have tied up in the ships?
Lol, doesn’t sound too bad!