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I agree with you but to be fair, they were valued at 32-33 p per share by the consortium that approached the board for a buyout. I have confidence this will be fine medium term but am surprised it actually dropped to 12 given the premium paid by the soon to be Chairperson. Anyway, all will be well in 12 months time so nothing to do but wait.
I am informed that DeHaan has never failed in any business he has had dealings with,so very happy to follow him,and even more happy to be paying much,much less for my shares than he has paid.Very happy!!
De Haan may be an insider and know the business but does he have any idea when the travel industry will be back to any degree of normality? I doubt it very much!
Even the Insurance sector seems to be getting clobbered lately with more and more stricter regulation. I reckon these might be worth a flutter at 5pence a share,but don't put your house on it!
It would need to be about 11.5p for me to cancel the open offer and buy off the market given stamp duty etc.
I'm in under 12, that was too good an offer to be refused
I think DeHaan will be delighted if he manages to get any further shares at 12p,but we should really look at what he was willing to pay which was 21.51p per share.I dont think he would have calculated to get many further shares,he will look at that as an unexpected bonus.So my take is that the shares were looked on as good value at 21.51p by an insider and somebody who obviously knows the business well,so we should be falling over ourselves to buy at these levels.This will not last long,a short window of opportunity to buy at these prices in my opinion.
I'm with you on this one Mr RetiredBanker. The sp was always going to dip to 12p in line with the offer. But this company is worth considerably more in the short term, and in the 2-3 year term a sound investment. I will be taking up my full entitlement under the offer
As a retired banker, I'm in agreement with with the Retired Banker - except the 18p uplift straight off. Not sure what the 18p average cost to the big Investor has to do with that conclusion.
I'm taking up my full allocation, and looking for a big payback in 2 to 3 years' time. Too long for most of the newbie casino stars who have come into this lately.
If the open offer isn't taken up by existing shareholders (which seems likely by some of the comments on this BB) then DeHaan is going to underwrite around 200m shares at 12p. By my calculations he will then hold approx 550m shares of enlarged 1950m share capital (just below the 30% level requiring an offer to take-over) at a total cost of 18.2p per share.
I see no reason for this to not pop back up to 18p almost as soon as this offer has completed ... or 270p after the consolidation
I'm taking my full allocation and backing the guy who is putting up $100m of his own money !
Sorry I must have misunderstood your original post.
Marcus. I agree with you. I wasn’t expecting 27P in two weeks but it should be achieved over the longer term. If investors think too much about the short term they will be out-manoeuvred by smarter investors who are looking at the long-term prospects.
If you think DeHaan has paid 243p for 9 shares and then 60p for 5shares so 303 for 14shares ,an average of 21.51 per share that would give a truer reflection of value than this s.p. Which is only here because of investors selling to buy in at 12p.Once the buy in is complete then it should rise as no 12p shares then available.The underlying position will be hugely improved with the extra capital in the business.Any further covid restrictions will help the insuranceside of the business as less claims made.Hoping that hewill put the businessback on track.At this price can only see an upside
Interestingly the shorts seem to have all closed their positions
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BLT1Y088/
Millennium International Management LP closed theirs on Friday when we had that small bump up to 13.5p, bizarrely they had only increased their short the day previously. Someone must have pressed the wrong button (lol)
Batfasted I think 27p is somewhat optimistic.
Maybe if everything goes to plan then 27p in 12 months is not out of reach, but if it hit 27p in the next 2 weeks it would drop down again as people profit take on the 12p shares they have just bought.
I can see a small bounce to 15p in old money but 27p would be a huge turn around, the capital raise minimises the risk of the company defaulting on its current covenants but it does not solve the problem of all the debt.
Most of the debt will be there and currently only the insurance division is servicing that debt.
In other news the Saga 3 year deal on insurance will not be so unique if the regulator has their way, in the news this morning it is proposing to make insurers limit how much they can raise premiums for existing customer to the same price a would be offered to a new customer
So I can see more companies following saga and offering deals longer than 12 months.
Hi TheFarEnd
The Capital Raising process is precisely for the purpose of adding £150M to the balance sheet.
The share price is likely to increase following the conclusion of this and then multiplied by 15 when the consolidation takes place. My reasonable estimate is 27P is fair pre-consolidation and 375P post-consolidation. Otherwise why all the takeover interest?
SaleSale, likewise good luck to yourself and your investments.
GLA
"The market will show it's valuation of Saga once the open offer has concluded"
Valuation today is short of £140m, post consolidated there will be less than 140m issued shares. Theoretically that makes an SP of c100p, but without an additional £140m on the balance sheet. I guess it's up to investors/demand to decide how much this cash injection is worth.
I don't think its as simple as, say 12p x 15 = 180p
but WTFDIK (not a lot).
Just saying.
Hi Joe, you are "an extremely high IQ" gambler. You could be easily wrong - no way. However, good luck ... whatever I inherited of british "iconic" businesses, it is bull.... SAGA and RR are "leaders".
"The market will show it's valuation of Saga once the open offer has concluded"
Totally agree LTI, the market always wants clarity and needs the deal passed and signed off.....and I'm hoping for a pleasant surprise with the SP......hoping being the key word :-)
GLA
There has been downward pressure on the share price because 12p shares were available to shareholders up until a cut off date.
''Can't see many taking up the 12p "offer" at this rate''
I can't see a reason not to unless the share price in the next couple of days goes below 12p including associated market buying costs.
The market will show it's valuation of Saga once the open offer has concluded.
Can't see many taking up the 12p "offer" at this rate
Just waiting to take your money and plunge below 10p