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At Munin.
Round 4 of the cfd?
Have I missed something?
Did it get to 1.8? I don't think we've been at 1.8 since December 2022. Highest I saw last week was 1.65. Look at the technical chart.
But I agree, this share does appear to drift down quickly following good news. Hopefully we'll see a step change in the next week or so following the milestone delivery date for round 4 of the CFD.
Rather low today considering we were at 1.8p a couple of weeks ago. An unwarranted drop in my opinion, but then it has a tendency to flicker between 1.1 to 1.7 with great regularity.
Trader???
Thanks. I think the price is oversold myself so took some more Friday. Sentiment certainly swings in this stock but buying at lows has always been profitable down at these levels the spikes are usually great at least 50% from lows
I like the discussion, however it is now about scaling up.
Having the finances in place for such an event (Mr black - will definitely be the link sorting this)
We move to lots more turbines and even more mws.
The issue is still..
The supply chain
Finances
Partners
Developers
Cash burn
Consents
And finally time.
I want more meat on the bones and so would any more future investors.
I'm an LTH, I am down but clawing it back a bit at a time.
If in the next 6-12 months we survive and things happen then we should see a slow increase in price but having been burnt, I am now realistic and very wary.
Next turbine in the water on time is the start of a timeline.
To achieve this the turbine needs to be in the water in the next 5 months (as per RNSs).
The BESS at Meygen?
More news about this required.
Is the funding coming from the finance requirement in 2025?
With regards to suppliers - must be Proteus and the incentive of owning a 1/5 of the shares in the company.
If they do well, so do we.
If they win more lucrative contract - win win.
I am hoping we have turned the corner but we shall see.
My mistake if it was an Andritz one that has been down there all that time. Thanks for clarification though. I stand by the bit about coming out preemptively and that we seem in ok shape.
Exactly what it says with a change in the Auditor.
Standard practice to renew auditors. Not good for transparency to have too close a relationship with your auditor.
SP is just market. Large UK renewables groups down by a proportionate amount. Was a lot of recent sentiment of certain rate cuts that is being tempered atm.
Can somebody explain what that Rns means ?
Seems cheap sub 1.2p to buy, was 1.5p not long ago
U forgot to add that Bess at Usk to over 1gb.
Of this potentially 0.5 GB could be for SAE = Revenue.
BESS at Meygen= Revenue
Great if Proteus are going to be the first port of call for “fabrication and assembly” of turbines from parts that have pretty well all been manufactured and tested elsewhere.
The Chairman’s statement in SAE’s latest Annual Report was dated 25.7.23 (that’s 6 months ago today). The paragraph on MeyGen Phase 2 is on page 4. It refers to the CfD secured in the AR4 allocation round for a further 28MW at MeyGen. Mr Black states, “…we have progressed development of the project including initial design and engineering work, negotiations with potential tidal turbine suppliers, and the appointment of a financial advisor to advise on securing debt and equity funding for the project.” It states that, “Financial close of the project is targeted for Q2 2025 and we will provide further updates as development progresses.”
Where’s the back of that envelope? Say MeyGen wants to go to 34MW by adding 2x2MW turbines and 8x3MW turbines. What’s the unit cost going to be for 10 assembled new turbines? Then, of course, there are the costs of new sub-sea hubs, the cabling, conversion, deployment, running, servicing etc. The post on 8.9.23 suggested the income from the original 6MW is probably some £2.6m/y. Add the income from the Phase 2 turbines (22MW at 50,100 MWh/y * £175/MWh ~ £8.8m/y from AR4) and MeyGen’s annual income would be £11.4m. Enough to pay off the cost of the 10 new turbines needed at the rate of what – about 1 every 18 months maybe over the 15 year period? So, the unit cost of each turbine has to be a whole lot less than £10m bearing in mind the other initial and running costs and the need for “equity” to make a return as well as debt interest and repayment.
Interestingly, the CfD strike price for the following phase is higher while the unit cost for a greater number of turbines should reduce due to economies of scale.
In the meantime, if you were Strand Hanson, what would your advice to MeyGen be about “securing debt and equity funding” always remembering that SAE’s existing debts are already secured by fixed and floating charges over its assets including its shareholding in MeyGen? Will SAE be able to command from MeyGen backers the kind of development premium payment it got from the Usk BESS developers but enough to cancel those charges? With how much of its shareholding in MeyGen will SAE be left after (private) “equity” has maybe taken the kind of slice it took for backing Proteus? What are the key drivers now for reducing LCOE for TSE sufficiently to make the sums add up in a way that would leave SAE with a reasonable return on a residual minority shareholding in MeyGen?
Mehmet, the Proteus turbine (AR1500) wasn't in constant operation for 4 years before it was removed. It was deployed in March 2022 after a pitch system upgrade and removed in June 2023, 16 months later. Before that, it was out of the water from August 2020 for the pitch upgrade. So in total it's been deployed for about two of the last 4 years.
This RNS mentions the AR1500 deployment in March 2022
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAE/tidal-turbine-re-deployment-at-meygen-site-ylu0myeg6ooy10g.html
This RNS from July 2023 confirms that the AR1500 (turbine 4) was removed in June.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAE/sae-successfully-deploys-upgraded-turbine-fqapqcjj9v5zy86.html
This RNS from Dec 2020 says that the AR1500 was recovered August 2020.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAE/operational-update-dmysp8grt1a0fd5.html
Given comments made to Abundance investors I am confident that Plan A is for the turbine order to go entirely to Proteus. That also has a 20% benefit to SAE due to the holding. I don't know what the Plan B is and as Proteus obviously attracted an injection of funds for the buyout, no reason not to believe that this is what makes them the well-capitalised manufacturer we've heard about. Let's see.
Turbine out of the water isn't great and we can look forward to the fourth going back in in the coming months. We know the revenue from each turbine is about £1.2m annually. Obviously that is welcome revenue but small on the scale we eventually hope to be talking. Remember that the turbine now in the workshop was brought out preemptively and having been in constant operation for around 4 years. That's before the upgrades now being made - it's a positive story.
We know that closing finance for the project is a big milestone slated for H1 2025. Let's hope we hit it. Longer-suffering investors will remember the recent highs of the share price came after Hanna announced their financing partnership for Usk conversion. These steps are by nature slow-moving but very significant when they come.
Another thing happening to the SAE shareholder base I feel is a movement out of the retail shareholder and day trader. Many will have been burned before, and the overall woes of stock market now weigh heavy on small caps with some risk involved. I could be wrong but I don't think we're going to see the 50% spikes around obsessively looking at vessel trackers when a new turbine goes in - these successes are nice but aren't the make-or-break or to-the-moon moments for this or any serious company. What is probably going to happen is slowly putting in place the footings for a large, successful company with a bright future, which serious investors will gradually take more interest in. It's a change I'd welcome and be overall positive for long term holders.
My main concern as I have stated for quite some time is not having turbines in the water and losing money during these periods.
Somehow a plan is required that investors must see showing how they will develop solutions to this problem otherwise we may have more problems than successes.
I get what you are answering.
And yes the are now project consultant for tidal.
But the details of what you have put must have been a consideration prior to SAE handing Proteus the keys to the turbines and the IP.
It would be a more interesting thread that really relates to the actual plan for phase 2 at Meygen.
This is with regards to the type of turbine and components.
I would assume that this through Proteus and their turbine build and supply chain process.
3 mw from original 1.5mw already so let's hope that the innovation keeps building beyond 3mw as this where the value is to be found.
Along with the wetmate and fast connection system for removal, replacement and repair.
The next pivotal communication is finance for this phase.
That if and when it happens will be the main mover for the SP along with balancing SAE finances.
Maximising sustainable growth opportunities from TSE is predicated on supply chain development (among other things). Indeed, long lead times for replacement parts is a given reason why turbines can be out of the water for so many months undergoing servicing. The supply chain for MeyGen Phase 1 was spread across the United Kingdom, Europe and North America. According to Blaxland, MeyGen has demonstrated that by working with a great supply chain, significant steps forward can be made in reducing the cost of tidal energy.
Looking at their websites, it wouldn’t be difficult to envisage Asturfeito https://www.asturfeito.com/en/sectors/renewable-energies and/or Andritz https://www.andritz.com/products-en/hydro/markets/tidal-energy (see the article there on the future of ocean-based electrical energy and their page on hybrid solutions including HyBaTec:
https://www.andritz.com/products-en/hydro/products/hybrid-solutions ) both having major roles in supplying turbines for the next phases of MeyGen. Blaxland seemed impressed by Asturfeito - they describe themselves as a leading manufacturer of hydro turbine components (and) able to manage in-house the whole fabrication process from welding and machining up to coating, mechanical assembly and testing operations (and, presumably, dis-assembly after testing for transport to somewhere closer to Scotland for final re-assembly and deployment). Is there a well-capitalised potential competitor in Scotland or elsewhere in the UK that could by 2027 be supplying a turbine (with warranty) a month (on average) for the decade or more needed to get MeyGen up to capacity? No doubt everyone at SAE, Proteus and MeyGen would prefer domestic supply chains if they could be developed. It would be to UK PLC and HMG’s eternal shame if the chance to retain genuine global leader status in this sector is let slip.
Research/development isn’t just a phase for SAE which is clearly not going to be manufacturing the turbines. Nor is there much sign of a scaled-up production line being established at Nigg. SAE now seems to be all about originating and delivering innovative, sustainable, cost-reducing energy projects in collaboration with others - not about seeking itself to deliver “commoditised” volumes of renewable energy. Project development is the company’s chosen role and the name of the game – as nobody’s fool would have realised a while back.
A certain kind of man condemns himself by what he says out of his own mouth, but Mr Black is nobody’s fool. He writes of well-capitalised turbine suppliers. Timaeus asked who supplied the turbines already in the water and replies, perhaps unwisely, to his own question - though as usual he can give nothing more than an imprecise account.
10 years ago, Andritz Hydro Hammerfest were contracted to supply 3 x 1.5 MW tidal stream turbines for Phase 1 of MeyGen. Andritz assembled the 3 turbines at its Ravensberg factory in Germany. According to Evolution Online (7 Feb 2017), the three Andritz turbines at MeyGen are equipped with gearboxes supplied by Wikov MGI a.s., a manufacturer of gearboxes for renewable energy applications with a factory situated in the small town of Hronov, on the Czech border with Poland. It is not immediately obvious who provided the induction generator or the turbine housing (nacelle) for the Andritz turbines.
The name Lockheed Martin appears on the steel nacelle of the AR1500 tidal turbine. In addition to the manufacture of the nacelle, the scope of Lockheed Martin’s contract with Atlantis encompassed the assembly of all the turbine modules (including the gearbox and generator); the systems integration; and quality assurance of the overall turbine delivery programme. The AR1500 has a permanent magnet generator designed and manufactured by The Switch in Finland. The Switch apparently also played a significant part in the design of the gearbox and generator mating interface. The world’s largest renewable energy consultancy DNV GL (Garrad Hassan) (with an office in Edinburgh a few miles down the road from SAE) were contracted to design a turbine control system for the AR1500 that would optimise performance while minimising extreme loads. The AR1500 eventually underwent “fabrication and assembly” at what was then Atlantis’ facility at Nigg Energy Park, now Proteus Marine Renewables’.
In September 2018 Atlantis entered a partnership with GE for the development and performance validation of an AR2000 tidal turbine generator system. GE’s Power Conversion business was also selected in June 2019 as the preferred supplier to deliver the electrical systems including the power converters for the next phase of MeyGen. 2 years ago this week when SAE announced the completion of the EASME Pitch System Project, Drew Blaxland went on record to recognise the huge effort made by SAE’s project partner Asturfeito, who produced (in Northern Spain) many of the system’s components. He also thanked the major subsystem suppliers: Involution Technologies Ltd (in Warwickshire) who designed and produced the gearbox system; SKF (in Bedfordshire) who produced the bearings; and Nidec SSB Wind Systems (in Germany) who produced the motors and controllers.
Might have cleared a overhang again in Sae full offer to buy and nothing online. Can go on decent runs when this happens
All I can say is - me too!
Don't think it should be a case of wind vs tidal. Tidal energy is just another very useful source of green energy which I would infinitely prefer to nuclear energy.
FWIW, I accept that tidal energy is expensive, however the model is proven and has generated over 50 GW since the launch of MeyGen project al, this years ago.
Expensive or not, I do not think we can afford not to invest in tidal energy or indeed other forms of green energy. The disruption from the storm yesterday to be followed by another storm tomorrow shows we have to call a halt to burning fossil fuels or say goodbye to this planet.
I have always felt Simec is a very ethical investment though it has lost me money to date. Hopeful this situation will reverse.
I'm pretty sure that the only downside of bad weather for tidal is if it coincides with a planned change-out of a turbine.
I'm sure some wind turbines are switched off today but many others are going like gangbusters. Wind is generating 21 GW and meeting 50% of UK grid demand. That's equivalent to 3500 6MW Meygen phase 1 projects operating flat out.
Also, one of the Meygen turbines is not in sea but sat on shore at Nigg. I don't think this is great to see since it means it's costing money rather than generating revenue. I'd like to see a solid track record from the 1.5MW Proteus turbine - high availability, high load factor over several years - before investing in an array of 3MW Proteus turbines.
We´re also operational in calm weather
And it'll be more soon!