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Good morning, iron ore futures lifted US24 cents a tonne or 0.2% to a fresh 6-month high of US$121.26 a tonne yesterday:
https://twitter.com/CommSec/status/1613632608860246016
Berenberg raises Rio Tinto to 'buy' ('sell') - price target 6,700 (4,000) pence
The end of Covid restrictions in China has pushed up copper and iron ore prices:
https://twitter.com/ftcommodities/status/1613207974071209986
When $RIO Tinto broke from its consolidation range in 2003, what came next was pretty astonishing.
China re-opening and US on-shoring could be important catalysts:
https://twitter.com/barometerca/status/1612931307679498241
Nice rise today so far. Pleased the way this share is moving. It’s my best performing share at the moment .
China's GDP growth forecast for 2023 raised to 5.7% – Morgan Stanley:
https://twitter.com/FXStreetNews/status/1612642181088436224
"#China's #commodity prices mostly rose in Dec driven by govt policy, expectations of economic recovery, etc, said China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
Spot prices of #IronOre rose 15.7% m/m, iron ore futures up 10.9%, steel rebar futures up 10.4%."
https://twitter.com/YuanTalks/status/1612406598412161025
To See RIO motoring ahead at the moment, the demand for copper setting this alight,
GLA LTH
Driftking27, while it is highly likely that the UK will be in recession, it does not automatically follow that countries that buy raw materials will also fall into recession. There is an improving economy in US, China is opening up again and Europe is hinting that any recession will be of short duration.
FWIW, I am in no hurry to dispose of my holding. Much happier to run and add to my winners. Bitter experience has demonstrated to me that adding good money to bad doesn’t work. I am still guilty of hanging onto losers for longer than I should.
2023 has started off well, DOW had a good day on Friday and should translate to a good day on Monday for the rest of the world. I’ll continue to add as finances permit.
In the meantime iron ore price still "driftking" upwards I see.
China plans to relax the “three red lines” policy, which triggered a real estate meltdown of construction halts & a widespread mortgage boycott.
Iron Ore up on Asian Trade:
https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1611205791008313345
Further to point, we’re going into recession! Look at graphs if 1968-1970 they are the exact same with inflation data & growth prospects.
Just wait until Mar & April and all devils will let lose.
Just sit and watch the markets and watch results if blue chips in USA.
Companies have grown too fast , Amazon for one, Apple another.
Just wait, that’s all i’m saying ..
i’ll see you the other side !
My punt.
China opening up is bad news, though China have kept quiet about the death rate from COVID. So, if that continues, maybe China opening up without media speculation might be good. Doubt it very much.
As i posted last year lots of times, the dividend from this yr and onwards is going to be reduced due to demand from closure from China and world issues.
The reason the P/E is low, is just that ! It’s not got growth prospects at present due these economic factors.
Wait until March to see about buying a tranche here not now. We need to hear about how the bad winters have affected consumer spending inflation numbers and it’s affect of markets. 10% would definitely be sliced from FTSE, 20% is more likely …
GLA, i’m heavyweight biotech / pharmaceuticals and doing very well.
"Corrections" as people insist on calling them are invariably caused by the market recognising external conditions which have existed for sometime but have so far not caused an adjustment in the value of the business. There are no such conditions in the businesses which RIO operates at present and therefore no "correction" to £48 or similar will occur. In fact it has already come and gone as the market price of iron ore fell to less than $90 a few months ago but has since climbed back up by around 30%. At that point RIO shares could be had for around £46 which is when I bought a substantial tranch because it was common sense to do so.
I really don't see how you get to that share price.
However I suppose there is nothing wrong with being optimistic.
Personally I think there is a correction to around £48 coming.
Profit & divy will be lower than last quarter however as usual it will depend on market sentiment.
RIO has a DRIP in place if that is of interest. I prefer to take dividends as cash. When special dividends are made, it demonstrates (to me) that the managers cannot use the cash for any immediate (6 mth) advantage. Share buybacks have no meaningful advantage to private investors.
China building came to a bit of a standstill in 2022 but I do expect infrastructure to pickup in 2023. This might not translate to any growth in dividend return so a final dividend in region of 150p would be my guess. Not sure if this is helpful.
Bull case includes mining supercycle, existing infrastructure always requires maintenance, new infrastructure absorbs government debt. USA, China, India and EU are putting new infrastrucutre projects in place. So too are many other countries like Brazil and Vietnam but have political distraction. Bear case has recession in prospect for many countries, few countries focussed on major infrastructure projects, UK has domestic issues that has greater focus.
Iron ore futures rose by US64 cents a tonne or 0.5% to US$117.79 a tonne:
https://twitter.com/CommSec/status/1610376561139789825
I have been watching PE trend for number of months and for all good miners around the world the PE ratio is around 10-12 and for some promising miners which are kind of newbies it’s around 18-20. I am quite surprised that RIO’s PE ratio is constant around 6.0 for months now. I do think that if little bit of re-rating is done than we should be looking around 9-10 which is very juicy share price of £90-95. Just need some momentum behind us with iron/gold/metal prices and I am sure we could be around £80 in no time
Just wondered what investors thought would be the dividend payout that willbe announced in February. It was 267p at half year. Whats the feeling of it being higher and whether a special dividend could be expected. Cheers
yes i think the Commodities will start to move up over the early part of 2023 as China opens up,
GLA LTH Hopefully some large Divi payments to look forward to
Oh and BTW the yeild is more like 10%, not the 8.4% shown here.
Forget all that rubbishy math, the important bit is that ROCE has averaged over 20% fr the last five years which gives most investors a huge incentive to buy. SP will pass £60 with ease shortly IMO.
Iron ore price rises as more policy support looms in China! Most-traded May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange traded higher at $118.7 a ton:
https://twitter.com/Alpha_Bronze/status/1607734292582375424
Showing fair value & will probably go up today with the iron ore price going up. However it seems like the iron ore price is being driven by market sentiment rather than fundamentals so for me it's try & get the sweet spot today & revisit at a later date.
Good luck to you all the sant rally came good.
Merry Xmas.
a breakdown of the true intrinsic value of RIO
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/calculating-intrinsic-value-rio-tinto-121140061.html