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NMC was murky double dealings and people shorted from £40 as it was clear to anyone that the share was not right. I researched it at £14 and ran away without purchasing any shares.
NMC was FTSE 100 but it was also headquartered in Abu Dhabi which some may argue made it more risky.
Hi JTO, fair comments.
Tbh I am new to Rev B ,had been watching since the IPO and researching the brand /business for a while,then Jupiter selling down presented the opportunity, without them off loading there wouldn’t have been the liquidity.
With BDO having carried out the original IPO DD last year ,the Co paying off its debt at IPO and even today standing on ‘just’ £21M of total debt today on £200M of Rev … and a net balance sheet so with around £100M then Rev B is not going bust , it’s either takeover or they trade through.
I am hoping I’ve got my research correct.
Hi Oke
I invested in Revb before the early Aug RNS and was in a loss position immediately after it(as all LTH's would've been). Averaging down and trading the share since then and eventually exiting entirely last week has recovered virtually all my losses and having been down so much I'm happy to be out with only a small loss.
I've lost money in situations where what I mentioned actually happened- I might be wrong (as I've been investing for years) but it could've been NMC- a FTSE 100 company with over 40 years of history and audited by EY so should've been able to rely on the numbers. I think KPMG were appointed to review EY's work and in the meantime the share was suspended, leaving PIs unable to trade the share as increasingly bad news was discovered.
I wish all investors the best of luck- all I was trying to do with my posts was to highlight the risks so that a more informed decision can be made by those still invested or thinking of doing so.
GLA
# would have
Hi JTO
Hope you made a profit on the trade - genuinely (that’s what we are all here for )
Think if it was as you say you are talking fraud by BDO at worst or misrepresentation at best, there is no way she could hide BDO’s actions and then appoint ( recommend ) one of the big 4 to come in,not sure if you have been involved with an audit but she would have had to sign off the BDO accounts as being fair and factual and then say she had concerns, not going to happen, this wouldn’t happened back in June if it wasn’t going to occur.
Same with the RNS last week reiterating the cash is fine, her name is on that one as well, as FD that was on all her not the CEO/ COO
Important point this one.
Being a plc director of a public company - and a new one at that - she has no incentive to cover a fraud and become exposed herself and then become a whistleblower doesn’t make sense
Suggest it’s a mixture of the comments below otherwise she would have ditched as soon as she saw anything onerous that wasn’t fixable
Let’s see how it goes this week but think we head into the 20’s and take it from there, am riding this one but agree there are risks but my average is 14p and I could see a double bagger here -,on a big relative position
Can understand your theory now you have exited, must not have been a concern when you were holding :)
Hi Oke
You asked yesterday what the downside risks may be to the current share price. Thinking about the situation with the ExFD/CFO it occurs to me that there's a risk(hopefully small) that the new CFO has found a number of things she doesn't like relating to the the ExFD and is currently discussing this with BDO. These may go beyond the so far reported issues of provisioning and income recognition. A "problem" which may occur to her is that BDO are to some extent complicit in the actions of the ExFD in that they signed off on the 28/2/21 accounts and work re IPO which is now being thrown into doubt. Her response to this may be to appoint a big 4 firm to perform an independent review of the earlier accounts and pending the conclusion of this (which will take a few months) the shares will be suspended. As I say hopefully not a big risk for PI's but one to consider. I exited my investment in RevB last week but felt that you and other users of this site should consider this. Anyway GLA.
Okenhurst1 , onsolidground , Excellent posts ! Well reasoned and made alot of sense plus backed up what I have been thinking since the last RNS. Trying to mitigate supply chain issues plus the impact of loosing the Russian , most of the Ukrainian market would naturally have a high impact on inventory.
Obviously the latest RNS is more to do with auditing rules and procedures rather than the actual trading position of the company. Which in my eyes is very strong.
Feel alot more assured now ! Thank you both !
Canary 3 reading between the lines I think that the crux of the accounting problem with REVB may be as simple as the knock on effects of the Russia and Ukraine conflict, and how it stopped in its tracks planned expansion.
Stock may well have been manufactured and shipped to warehousing and store concessions in both countries and particularly with Russia it might still be within the country. On top there are complex sanctions which may affect the currency for payment and then taking that money out of the country.
REVB may well be trying to show what stock is there as inventory which would be on the plus side of the accounts and the auditors might be saying that as it is not actively for sale and "stuck" you will need to write it off and therefore putting it on the negative side of the accounts. Stock and bad debt provisioning do seem to be the core of the issue of the last RNS.
In any case Management seem to think it is either solvable or there are other revenue streams coming online which has left them confident to reiterate FY guidance
"It should be noted the potential changes to the results for FY22 do not impact the net debt position previously notified of £21.2m as at 31 July 2022 and management reiterate they believe that the Group's £40m revolving credit facility provides sufficient liquidity for the future. Management also confirm that guidance for the year ending 28 February 2023, as set out in the announcement on 2 August 2022 remains unchanged."
Roll on next week. Strong finish into the close on Friday, realisation of the above re maintained guidance, double hit by effectively 2 RNS's instead of 1 and we should see Jupiter totally gone by next weekend.
May I just add that we might see a new holder or two emerge with 142 Million shares turned over 2 days. There are only 310M shares. So approaching half the number of shares in issue have been traded in two days.
Interesting thesis Canary
I’ve been wondering where could the issues be ?
I was wondering is it in part around the loss of the Ukraine /Russia revenue? This could be £15M to £18M of sales
The BoD needed to plug the gap and redirect the stock pile where did that go and at what terms ?
Then we had a £3M acquisition of the LA Beauty Co that was in Chapter 11 - that’s a whole sub sector skill base bedding in a business that’s been basically trading through Administration
Then we have sometime Q3/Q4 last year the BoD made the call to stock a years worth of chemicals
Anyone one of those issues is challenging on their own but if the FD was deemed inexperienced / or just not good enough to be in the seat post IPO with £220M of global sales to manage was he functioning when these calls were made ?
My gut is feel is no … the data points that way.
Ok so since he has gone the new FD has been grappling with the above, she didn’t Jack so she thinks it’s fixable, if wasn’t she would have jumped within a month or so.
My take is, she is getting to grips, sorting everything out with the auditors, we will see a hit to last years EBITA, the BoD will say it’s water under the bridge but these are the reasons why and the new FD has done a great job and we will do £18M EBITA and don’t forget we did £12M EBITA last year H2 the issues were all H1 etc .. and the market moves on .
In the mean time - because the market prices in real time - the share price is down 90% the bad news is already priced in, however the ‘smart’ money is looking at the share price and working through the above, it started at 8p last week -with Jupiter out - and is now moving in to take a position which starts with the MM’s buying up stock to sell on to whales / II who have verbally advised they want stock
IF the MM’s mark down first tomorrow -I think they will with the 17.2p UT - , they gobble up weak hands stock then we move to 18p as the accumulation continues.
£100M net assets / £200M of sales , £110M of which are outside the U.K. and £18M EBITA H2 ,then £50M current m/cap is a total steal
Soon find out on 24hrs
Very interesting timeline, it looks like he or much more likely IMO the board decided that he should leave. Either at IPO or shortly after.
The new FD resigned her position with her last company on the 31st December 2021, she was due to serve 6 months notice but Joined REVB in Mid May.
The recruitment process to find and appoint her would be a minimum of 3 months and could be as much as 6 months.
So near or just after IPO.
In order to make the decision to join REV she will have been all over the books and had some serious questioning for the board. So IMO she must be confident that issues that she is facing can be dealt with with limited damage.
Of course it could be that the previous FD made the decision to go, but i doubt that.
GL