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LCD coverage is forecast before the end of September. They need some money before that to get sales going to demonstrate to the market that they can deliver themselves so they aren't vulnerable to a predatory offer. The sp is just relating to reflect the dilution. Still only 150 million shares. They will sell soon enough for a lot of money. Mergers and acquisitions are really taking off with big pharma this year. Patents are expiring and they need new products and drugs.
Agree Tricky.
I've just been through the M&A process with a private company and having a strong sales pipeline in operation is like having a really good card in a game of poker. That along with the new cash injection means they're now playing with a stronger hand as well. IMHO they're making all the right moves to put themselves into a stronger negotiating position.
Tbh I was surprised this drop didn't happen yesterday.
Its difficult not to watch the steady daily share price decline and not be worried about the current direction of travel. The primary negative from the recent quarterly results was the continued lack of test sales - and in many ways the market is now judging the business on this one key commercial metric despite the substantial achievements of the last five years. The recent fund raise targeted $10m to fund the company into October 2024. It was oversubscribed by $2m, and a further $1.5m came in from DB Capital - so lets assume the business has just about enough cash to get to the end of 2024. By then, we will have had the LCD determination, Q4 2024 results (in full year numbers), Q1 2025 results, and presumably clarification as to whether there is a deal to sell the company. Retail investors are clearly spooked hence the low volume, high impact selling in the UK and US. But lets not forget the significant number of of major shareholders (Sinai, Harwood, Polar, Rothschild, GGH, Lombard) who all picked up shares at the fundraise at which point we have to assume (?) there was some knowledge on the likely numbers being discussed from the strategic acquirer interest - who would have been aware of the 5 year, $200m investment to get to this point. I not exactly happy with the situation but trying to look beyond the current day trading mess. SB
A fair minded (and well informed) summation, thank you. We can talk about authorisations, insurance coverages, the adequacy of funding, but the biggest issue with these biotechs, as you mention SB and as I've painfully come to learn, is the glacial slowness of take-up despite most of these things being in place. I simply don't believe, in all 5 biotechs I've invested in, that the tech is rubbish and unviable, but I do increasingly believe there's some sort of structural impediment in the marketing, and/or rolling out, and/or clinical prescribing of these new treatments. It's taking far longer than either I or it would seem the companies had bargained for.
The other nagging worry is that I don't see a queue of suitors clamouring to buy out these biotechs, even at market caps which are tiny. It may happen here, but we're already at 19p and it hasn't happened yet.
I think the diagnostics technology here is unquestionable unhooked - on any evaluation, clinical, patient, budget, healthcare measure you care to use - it is the future. But any new tech needs time to get embedded into a slow moving, complex primary care led marketplace and that's where the issue lies for early stage biotech. The current share price is irrelevant in many ways - as is the current market cap. In Feb, the share price hit 10p - with a lot less shares in circulation - market cap about £12m. Today - its c.20p, with 150m shares - market cap £30m. With a day in Feb, it leapt 5 fold on the LCD update. Such is the highly news driven volatility associated with the share. Keep the faith eh.....ATB. SB
Couple of points of clarity would be useful which i posted a few days ago - if anyone can confirm that would be great:
1. Looking at Renalytix website shareholder information, i cannot see a holding for Harwood Capital? Have they completely sold out or am i missing something as they updated us with their latest rns albeit out of date holding on 14 May?
2. Anyone got link to the recent presenation last week?
Thanks in advance for your help
I do understand what the company wants to achieve and how difficult it is. Everything takes time and they don't have enough money to buy this time. I do feel sorry for them. As they want to make sure they receive a good price from sale of the company. But they don't have enough money. They like to developing the product and not sell the product. This is way they will sell the company as they want to focuse on the developing part.
The share price drops only because of the dilution and selling a big batches of shares by investment companies. No one wants to buy the shares because everybody are waiting for breaking point to get the best buying price and when the investment companies will run out with shares to sell.
Fre1, sometimes the holding goes under the name of C.Mills, CIO of Harwood.
Fwiw, this is what marketscreener says, although I'm unsure if it's been recently updated:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RENALYTIX-PLC-58002419/company/
I wouldn’t feel sorry for them! Everything is about planning and budgeting, that’s what a business plan is for! If they couldn’t foresee this situation then they shouldn’t have got to this point, absolutely poor management from the BOD! You don’t create a product and ask questions later. Diluting to keep the lights on is their own fault no one else’s
Riceyboy, you're really panicking. I am buying another £10k when I have sold something else that's only just started moving properly. This is Aim. Shares are volatile. If you don't believe in the stock then sell. Don't keep whining mate. Not a good look.
They're about to get insurance coverage for the whole of the US. It's worth waiting for. Enough iis in at this level. It went to 80p in a day when the consultation started. Once the recommendation comes it will triple or quadruple from wherever it is and when orders come in it will build again. They are queuing up already according to the CEO. Pharma companies will wait for the lcd decision to be announced. Obviously they will want that confirmation.
Thanks for the link unhooked - here's the link to the company's shareeholder information from 10 April 2024 per their website:
https://investors.renalytix.com/financials-and-filings/shareholder-information
No mention of Harwood Capital so i want if they have sold out completely now or are below the non disclosable 3%?
Looks like Harwood have yet to update the market via rns on their reduced holding?
Fre1 - all Harwood holdings are consolidated under Christopher Mills, Director and Chairman - and include the holdings of Harwood Capital, Oryx and North America Smaller Companies. Collectively their holding amounted to 10.07m shares in March 2024, prior to the fundraise. They agreed to purchase a further 4m shares as part of the fundraise - in both the first and second placing. The first placing shares have been issued, the second were approved at the AGM in late April but not issued yet. Their total holdings are therefore c.14m shares; and the % varies of which metric is being used to calculate total % holdings as the first and second placing shares are introduced to the market. Bear in mind general corporate holdings announcements are also being made as the company is under takeover rules and sometimes there are crossovers which confuse the holdings position. Based on the final 150m shares in circ, they will hold about 9.4%. Hope that helps. SB