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I have sent a message to the company and I have received very good reply from Peter DeNardo:
The Company really cannot provide guidance on number of tests over the next couple of years since that would essentially provide non-public revenue guidance. We are hopeful that under Howard Doran as heading up sales and hiring top-notch sales personnel that are performing that test sales will build over time. Certainly, a higher level of sales is needed to fund the business following the recent capital raises.
The company is exploring cardiovascular product application opportunities given that cardiovascular problems often go hand in hand with obesity, diabetes and chronic kidney disease.
The next update will be Renalytix’s third quarter earnings conference call on or about May 15 and we invite you to listen in to the related webcast for an update on a variety of subjects.
No worries Trickymatters. Goodness knows where the share price would be if the company was in debt and paying interest rates, sonia plus margin etc. They are cutting costs which is good - but you do have to ask why they left it to the brink - although whenever the company has required finance it has always been able to fund raise. The problem is that the bio-tech/diagnostics bull market has left the building....and with it a lot of confidence in the sector. As a rough guide to what shareholders would expect as a return - Renx has raised somewhere in the region of £160m in the last six years which has covered the overhead/loss to get it to where it is today. So I think that would be the starting point for a discussion on a sale. After that - its all about market potential - and as you point out the ckd drugs market is a multi billion dollar business. IF the company is sold - someone else needs to absorb losses for a while yet until there is sufficient commercial traction to start making a return - but the long term prize could be significant. ATB. SB
You are right SB. They avoided consolidating their losses with debt through the recent fundraise. Which will go on if they go it alone. As you and I have both observed there are mixed messages about whether they want a sale or whether they intend to sell the product themselves. Not their core skills so that's why I think they want to sell. Being deliberately ambiguous. Bit obvious to those interested parties but not without merit as a bargaining chip for a small company positioning themselves to engaging with pharma giants.
I won't reference 'debt' again. I meant they're spending more than they're making. Lazy. Apologies.
I won't cry if they get £1.00. Neither will new bond holders? Unless some of them have previously invested, as you have, at much higher levels.
But realistically they should get £300 million. A big pharma with a high industry profile, manufacturing core skills or good outsourcing relationships will make a billion a year from the US alone. Add to this additional sales from ckd drugs already worth tens of millions to both AZN and TF and it's a valuable investment.
It's important to the US health insurance industry to get this right too. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed.
We should have a quater update in a week or 2. We will see if we will receive any news. I don't think they will sell the company.
CVI/Heights Capital appear to be increasing the scale of their selling - both in US ADS and UK AIM. In a limited buyers market this is clearly having a negative impact on pricing and the largish (10%) daily swings. They are able to offset these sales through new shares being issued under their bond at the current rate of 4m per quarter - price dependent. SB
Its difficult to make any kind of prediction as to what a purchaser would pay in terms of the share price. Its more about what is the company actually worth. As it stands.....its £30m based on 150m+ shares in circulation. There are lots of options which could take the total share count to c.200m. In that dilution scenario, if a purchaser was willing to pay £200m, than it works back to £1 per share. Question is - does £200m come close to current shareholders expectations? Would they accept less hence the recent fundraise to both provide working capital and lower average prices for the majority of major holders. Or is £200m too low for a company with Renx's potential - albeit its still losing a lot of cash each quarter. Trickymatters - you have mentioned the company's debt position a number of times - do you know something I don't? As far as I am aware the company has no debt - and is probably sitting on about $10m+ of cash at the moment post placing and DB capital funds. SB
For us but not for the States. I can see Renx getting a lift on Monday without our day traders causing a bit of a drag.
RNS out
Still a 7-10 bagger, I’d be happy with that
Looks like 30.00’s today
Thanks Tricky.
I was looking for a £1.80 region exit, so your logic has confirmed my thoughts.
GLA
Buddhabob, broker says £2.00. Ordinarily I'd say could go for £3.50. It's a finished and FDA approved product. If it gets LCD for which all the signals are very good, big pharma will make the most of first mover advantage. It will be worth billions and increase sales of their ckd drugs. But they're vulnerable because of the debt they have incurred in getting to this point as a small company. So they have some room to manoeuvre but not much. They will take £2.00 I think. Maybe a bit less.
Maybe but down 3 percent , collapse is a tad dramatic !
Collapse of SP on Nasdaq suggests a pullback tomorrow
Another huge late trade showing
It’s why I’m so excited about Verici dx with its thermo fisher tie in, same sectors . Huge buy out potential . Atb
Tricky,
If that happens and they jump the final hurdle, what price range do you see for the SP?
It's going up in anticipation of lcd approval including Medicare and the whole US insurance industry. Imagine what will happen when it's approved. Market of 10 million at risk of chronic kidney disease, where the insurance industry have a vested interest in getting those at risk tested, because acute kidney disease is way more expensive and usually ends someone's working life if they can't get a kidney donor. 950 dollars per test is the approved price already agreed. FDA approved. US government contracting on behalf of public services and the US Veteran's already buying. LCD coverage is the last hurdle to first out of the box, comprehensive market penetration. Hold for a few months and you'll be well happy.
Never been in a share with a short open . yikes its going up poor guys lol
Up nearly 15%
Revving up
The price suggests a buy. Not showing in the tally so far.
£71k trade from earlier, was that a buy or sell?
First lot of recent placing shares admitted 29 April to supoort the business as funding was necessary- see rns it's all there.
£20k buy earlier today