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Just to add.
If the figures quoted by Asim are correct. To produce one kilogram of product costs 150 euros.
https://kalbela.com/ajkerpatrika/lastpage/tuymwkotei?fbclid=IwAR3spF9l_cAtr6yApMDpTCA-keqdTH6s0467tTbtnQ94vBuDnlovDJu5_sA
and if the figures quoted in this Chinese article are correct. Cost to purchase = 6000RMB/kg or 820 Euros
then no one can doubt that that is a good return on investment.
To say things like DSM hold 15 years worth of stock or Fruitflow isnt profitable is simply wrong.
Guessing aside, however much stock Provexis choose to purchase from DSM, and we don't have to buy it all, IF will be aware of how much stock we should be able to sell before the best before date of the inventory.
"Under the terms of the DSM Transfer of Business agreement, the Company can elect in the first quarter of
2023 to purchase some but not all of DSM’s remaining stocks of Fruitflow at 31 December 2022, being a
decision which the Company will seek to make in the first quarter of 2023 once the Company has a clearer
understanding of (i) the amount of stock remaining at 31 December 2022, (ii) the best before dates of this
inventory, which are currently estimated to be favourable / long dated in light of recent production runs of new
Fruitflow material in 2022, (iii) likely customer demand in 2023 and beyond and (iv) the Company’s financial
resources at that time."
"Stability and storage
Fruitflow® II SD is sensitive to air, heat and light. The product may be stored for at least 36
months from the date of manufacture in the unopened original container and at a
temperature below 25°C. The ‘best use before’ date is printed on the label. Keep container
tightly closed. Once opened, use contents quickly and store below 25°C."
http://technicaldocuments.dsm.com/product_finder/technical_documents/DNP/level10/DNP_DNPNA_000000000005015118_PDS_en.pdf
So, I would guess that whatever stock quantity is purchased then they should be able to sell it within around 18 months to 2 years max.
IF will find communication easier now. Previously the company had 1 partner, DSM. Everything PXS wrote could potentially be tied to DSM and may be sensitive. They could not tell us FF revenue figures, as that belonged to DSM.
Things have changed, they now have a truck load of their own customers and PXS statements cannot easily be associated with a particular customer. They can report on current revenue, profits vs forecasted revenue and profits.
Kr
That's all I can take away atm.
Worth noting we could have been in "profit" over the last two years if R&D were canned.
I guess it's IF's time to step up and deliver. In the post transition world I hope to see a more communicative CEO
W$
It’s all guess work, but that’s part of investing, thinking about what it means, what direction it’s going and whether your money should be invested there or not.
I am feeling very optimistic at present, but find the waiting difficult. I just want to know how wrong I am now without the wait.
W$, so we're going to make a profit then, that's good - thank you.
Dr_H, thank you, I'm happy to go with your numbers and look forward to seeing confirmation of the c.£5m sales.
It's been quite a day, and so much to look forward to apparently.
All we know re profit to us post 1 Jan 2023 is
"on a pro-forma basis, assuming like for like sales and margins - would be materially ahead of the net share of the profit that would have accrued to Provexis with like for like sales and margins under the existing 2010 Alliance Agreement;"
WS
It's all bloody guesswork, how many times!! I thought I'd been quite generous with the 15 years of stock but never mind. Can we settle on 10-12 years, because it's a piddling little amount added on whatever the split?
I have stated my guess previously.
I would guess that the company would not aim to have more that 1 years worth of stock sitting around. The stock has a long shelf life and they may save money by producing higher volumes in one go, but I think 1 year is probably sensible for the remaining stock. It's pure speculation based on a feeling of what seems right to me.
All revenues will now come to PXS and PXS will pay DSM a fee for their customers. PXS will now be getting new customers outside this agreement, as per RNS. Also, DSM may be ordering from PXS now for their remaining customers, the ones that purchase premixes or off-the-shelf products. This will be at a much better rate for PXS.
Given the high price of PXS, the stock levels, the amount of customers etc, I would think that the total sales revenue would be somewhere around £5m. I have nothing to back this up with. I'm thinking £3m to £7m, probably £5m.
I would think the step-down would be something like:
Financial Year 1 - 80% to DSM, 20% to PXS
Financial Year 2 - 60% to DSM, 40% to PXS
Financial Year 3 - 40% to DSM, 60% to PXS
Financial Year 4 - 20% to DSM, 80% to PXS
Financial Year 5 - 0% to DSM, 100% to PXS
Therefore, Q4 of this financial year will be in step down 1
Next financial year will be 3/4 step 1, 1/4 step 2..... and so on.
Follow the logic?
We have no idea whether the numbers are correct, they are made up after all, but if you can speculate any better, then we'd all be interested in your numbers and rationale.
#14 years, not 11.
Your lack of certainty didn't stop you making a calculation regarding how long it would take to sell down the stock, basing that calculation on the sales of Fruitflow +O3 alone did it?
So, either you did comprende, and used an an outright untruth, or you didn't comprende.
Which?
Dr_H - the market has interpreted the new arrangement with DSM and decided that the fair range for the share is now 0.8 - 1.0p. Which is up from 0.6 - 0.8. For what it's worth (see previous), I think that's about right. If it's better than that, whoopeedoo, we can all celebrate. Until that time, after 11 years of disappointments as a shareholder, you'll have to excuse me for not getting overly excited.
Oh I comprende all right mon amis, I'm just not naïve enough to think that this new arrangement is going to suddenly translate into £millions of sales or profits. The reality is, as has been said on here many times before, we don't know what the original contractual arrangements were with DSM, so anything posted on here is speculative at best. And that includes the stuff I write.
And, since we're speculating, would YOU like to guess what the sales will be at the full year this year? And profit/loss?? Because it IS only guesswork, until confirmed.
*DSM :)
Krusty,
As of Jan 01st this year, Provexis produce and sell ALL fruit flow. All revenues will go to Provexis. Almost all existing DSM customers have now transferred to Provexis. Provexis total revenue will now be up significantly. Provexis will now pay DMS a royalty fee for those customers, stepping down in amount each year over the next 4 years. That leads us to believe that we may enter profit this financial year, but if not, certainly next financial year, irrespective of BH, gut health and other things.
I would write some further information, but think the have maybe not read the RNS' and fully understood what is happening here.
Got to say, you've reached a new peak in your lack of understanding with that last post.
Last year, DSM sold most of the Fruitflow, and gave a share to PXS.
This year, PXS sell all the Fruitflow, and don't have to share it with anyone.
Comprende?
Strewth !
gixer - when is a profit not a profit? I'm invested in PXS, not DSM. PXS has NEVER made a profit. So you can talk about "profit share" all you like, the company is loss-making. How anybody thinks that's going to be different in the post-DSM world, without a significant increase in volume, is beyond me. Yes it'll be cheaper to produce but not cheap enough to cover the overhead, particularly the R&D element. Happy to be proved wrong of course, I'm all-in here as a LTH so any kind of good news will be gratefully received at Kamp Krusty!
Dr_Horrible - how much of the Eu6m worth of stock will have expired by the time PXS sell it? At the current run-rate that's enough stock for 15 years, give or take... or are you saying they're going to "square that away" by booking it all as sales in Year 1??
It's usually alf who has the mandate for guff on this site (and me, obviously!) but seems like he's got competition today.
At £10k a shot will take a long time to get €1m or even €300k
Fruitflow is definitely making profit. However PXS is not making profit. Based on the graph by W$ it seems we could be profit by end of this year. On top of BH announcement will blow through the roof. So it is the point of inflexion time now.
At same price as the large one on Friday
17-Feb-23 15:57:39 0.8575 850,000 Unknown* 0.85 1.00 7,289
Just received my H&B cheapies
Use by Jun 2023
In contrast from PXS was Jun 2024
W$
Could this morning's trade be a hint regarding stock financing?
Not saying I know, just speculating.
Krusty,
In September last year, they predicted that there would be over €1m of stock remaining at year end. So after 3 months of further operations there will be €1m of stock remaining to transfer to PXS.
We now know that it now costs approximately €150 per KG to produce (down from €600).
So what you are saying Krusty is that when PXS buy €1m of stock at €150 per KG (6666.6 KG), then sell it for €900 per KG?? (€6m) then there will be no profit in that. How do you square that away?
We don't have any idea how long that stock will last, but I would think 1 year would be a reasonable guess as any.
Krusty, "And where is the evidence for this?"
The alliance agreement was a profit split so if ff wasn't making a profit we wouldn't have got any cash from DSM.
We just don't know what the profit split was.
ws "keep up" lol!!
With those last 2 amounts;How on Earth are PXS still making a loss?