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likewise i appreciate your thoughts the one big difference appears thomas cook have made a change ie internet staff reductions closing shops etc which has helped their case but punch need to charge us tennants a certain level of rent to meet payments for the loans they took out to buy these pubs in the first place this has to be at a certain level which i feel is unstainable as our costs have risen ie gas etc we have made all cuts possible but we need to open pub to sell beer that has to be staffed heated insured etc something that has reduced our profits most of punch pubs are run like this where as spirit has mostly managed pubs where all profit goes to brewery interesting times ahead but lets hope
I appreciate your comments, and do agree that Punch has suffered big time over the last few years, and that has been reflected in the share price. However I do feel they have been oversold from this level, and that they are making real inroads in to reducing their debt, revamping pubs, and re-structuring their business model in general. I saw this with Thomas Cook when it dropped to these low levels. However they have sold off a good percentage of shops, reduced headcount and changed their business model and the recovery has been massive. Like people always want holidays, people will always want pubs and food. I like the fact PUB have already intimated that the majority of stakeholders are already on board with their new program. That clearly gives confidence and puts weight behind my arguement for a good recovery.
Action on PUB this morning. Should get news on stakeholder approval for re-structuring of business very soon. I do see a big re-rate from this level.
in all due respect do you know something the rest of the country doesnt because i run a punch pub and over the 30 years ive been involved in this industry its never been so bad joe public is being squeesed beer prices are rising and desposible income is in decline so footfall wont rise just yet punch as a company are selling pubs that dont work and their estate is shrinking the remaining estate has a book value that may have been realistic before the credit crunch but not now so they dont have much room for profit upturn
Very positive trading update. Think PUB will be a good recovery stock very soon. Just need them to finalise the debt restructuring which all looks on target from their statement to be sorted in the next two months. Then I think like Thomas cook it will recover from these low levels.
PUB's are busy as hell. Try and book a table for Mother's day.
PUB must be close to finalising the debt restructuring. This has been going on since October. How long does it take.
Up 7% today. Have a good feeling the debt restructuring will get the green light and you will see a good recovery for PUB. Hopefully we will hear shortly.
UP 14% !!! Went to auction earlier on few trades. We should know about the debt restructuring pretty soon. I can't imagine it will be long to wait, and I think news will be positive as per indicated.
Punch Taverns: Barclays ups target price from 10p to 16.50p upgrading from equal-weight to overweight.
The "core" estate consists of struggling licensees & tenants paying excessive rents and tied prices many of whom will cease trading in the coming months/years. The business model cannot work in it's current format. If and when the government's statutory code of practice comes in to force the company's revenues, in theory, will reduce significantly over time. How can the restructured debt be serviced? Further asset disposal? What is the true valuation of the estate?
The way I see this is that the RNS was very positive with MOST of the lenders on board and willing to accept a "haircut". It was made clear that this was not a debt for equity swap, (the equity is currently worth a fraction of the debt) nor was there any type of shareholder dilution considered. Although a wildly different business, this brings back memories of yells restructuring which brought a massive spike in the share price. That's where the comparisons end of course but people do still go to the pub and do eat out even in these challenging times. For me, if this restructuring goes ahead (and from the RNS I think it's more likely than not) then this has the potential to be an outstanding recovery play. It appears NUMIS at least think so too.... Let's get the conversations going.... Bbb
Get out now at this price. Last chance
If PUB can get the final stakeholder approvals, which from the sounds of things shouldn't be too difficult as the majority of the main stakeholders already on board, then the recovery play here is exciting. I have taken a nice long position on PUB this morning, as see this moving up nicely over coming weeks.
or maybe the shares are worth 7p,
wonder why no one has picked up on this, here is the rns Achieves a material reduction in debt and debt service n £463 million reduction in contractual debt service payments over the next five years; n £393 million targeted debt prepayment ahead of the new amortisation schedule over the next five years; and n £229 million immediate reduction in debt in the Punch B securitisation. Delivers value to all stakeholders including: n Creates a sustainable capital structure for a highly profitable pub business which delivered £225 million of underlying operating profit and £312 million of cash generation before debt service in the last financial year; n Provides a platform on which to execute the business plan, including a £220 million investment programme focused on the core estate and the disposal of £435 million of non-core assets; and n Protects the material financial and operational benefits from which the two securitisations mutually benefit by being part of the wider Punch group. Supported by a broad group of stakeholders n A group of five financial institutions, consisting of Glenview Capital, Octavian, Luxor Capital, Alchemy and Avenue Capital, who together manage funds that hold over 50% of the Group's issued share capital, c.25% of the Punch B debt in total and a majority of the total junior debt in Punch B and the trustees of the Punch B defined benefit pension scheme; n Monoline insurers, Ambac and MBIA who between them guarantee c.£990 million of notes across the two securitisations, including over 50% of the Punch A notes, and whose approval of the proposed restructurings is required; n In addition, the Board has already commenced discussions with a number of other stakeholders including swap counterparties, liquidity facility providers and other holders of debt in the two securitisations; and n Punch will now engage with all stakeholders to seek additional support to implement the proposed restructuring solutions as soon as possible, while keeping the provision of financial support to the Punch A and Punch B securitisations under review.
they have 264million in cash so why is market cap only 90m, i know about their debt situation and their assets, this massively undervalued. they made £225million operating profit last year, the debt is big but their net assets are worth more, but regardless of all that they have cash of £264million
Looking good here..how far can this go today?
Nice to see a rise here today. Roger Whiteside now at Greggs Greasy Bar but big turnaround plans on the books. They certainly need to generate some revenue. Worth watching over the year.
From what i understand they have debt of about 3 biilion yes 3 billion and only make 60 million profit that is about 35 x. They state their estate is worth about 3 billion which I am highly skeptical about this .There is no point in the banks torpedoing them because they would lose to much.Where does it go from here answers on a beer mat please.Probably nowhere.Is the price rise due to professional punters trying to get the price up a bit so they can bail out.
In on that basis,,,,,,,looks like a few other's have the same idea,,,,,,,,,all IMO of course
"Trading comparatives are much more challenging in the first half of this year and given this, net income in the core estate is down 5% on a like-for-like basis, in line with management expectations," the statement read. Roger Whiteside, Chief Executive Officer of Punch Taverns, commented:"Our performance in the first 16 weeks of the financial year has been in line with management expectations. While the UK consumer environment is likely to remain challenging for at least the near-term, we continue to make good progress with our clear operational plan to return the core estate to growth in the medium-term and extract maximum value from our non-core assets." Panmure analysts' view Commenting on the statement, Panmure analysts stated: "Discussions regarding financial restructuring are on-going and on the basis of dialogue with shareholders to date, the board continues to believe that a restructuring can be successfully implemented. "The key issue for investors is whether they think there is any value left in the pubco business for equity holders. We do not think there is, as there is likely to be a debt for equity swap as well as a change to the amortisation profile of the remaining debt and likely resetting of covenants alongside these steps. "It will take time for this consensus to be reached, in our view, meaning the only visible value is the group's shareholding in Matthew Clark which is valued at approximately £44m, or 7p per share. This therefore dictates our Target Price; Hold." Punch Taverns' share price was unchanged at 7.49p at 11:03 on Friday.
A A A Pub and bar operator Punch Taverns is trading in-line, despite which analysts warn that the equity value of the company's pubco business is nil. In its interim management statement covering the first 16 weeks of the fiscal year, up until December 8th, the company stated that average profit per pub was stable and overall profit performance was in line with management expectations. Thus, although net income in core estate was down 5% on a like-for-like basis, that was as expected and a recovery is currently being forecast. The group stated that its non-core estate disposal programme remained on track. Since commencing the programme in 2011, it said it had realised proceeds of £193m from 758 pub disposals, slightly ahead of book value. Approximately 400 non-core pubs were expected to be sold by the group in the current financial year. In the current quarter, Punch disposed of 86 pubs for proceeds of £26m. The average quality of the group's estate was expected to improve as Punch Taverns sold non-core assets. However, the core estate net income is expected to decline in the current financial year as the group rebalances rents in the short-term, with a return to growth expected in the next financial year.
They charge me £122.15 per 11gallon of fosters but without a discount it would be £145.39 at cash and carry or from a whosaler its about £85 so as you see they charge a premium as we are tied for our beer reackon they get fantastic price direct from the brewers The problem is the debt the company have cant see them getting out of it
Anybody know how much they buy a keg (11 gal) of say Fosters for? Must be cheap with their buying power on tied pubs