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big volume?
Shouldn't we have had confirmation of bids or some news yeterday in line with the original RNS of the offers in Dec - i thought they had a proscribed nuber of days to confirm or withdraw bids which would have required an update on the 11th of Jan but don't see one? Still hoping for 200p or more. GLA
It looks like the market is assuming that one of the parties will up their bid - and you'd think there would be scope for that when it's still a large discount to NAV. I'd be amazed a deal didn't happen as the current shareholders are mainly the old loan note holders who converted at the time of the debt for equity swap. Fingers crossed its at closer to 200p than 180p. I like the look of PPHE. If you're looking to reinvest profits, have a look at SCS. An unloved furniture retailer which has c£20m excess cash on b/s, makes £16m EBITDA and had a mkt cap of £68m (so a 3x EBITDA valuation).
WYG looks likely to benefit from infrastructure spending (target 150p) while hotels available at large NAV discounts - PPHE, EHG and SSTY.
Good work APA - i have held a bit longer but got in a bit cheaper but agree great news. You spotted any other "bargains" like Punch? I agree no smoke without fire so looks like more interest to me and might get to 200p
I bought at 99p on 1st September valuing it on its property alone (independent property valuation - debt) to give target of 180p. Came home to the good news last night, patted myself on the back and sold at 180p this morning. Came home tonight to see latest rise! Very large trades and sp above both 'offers' so looks like more in the tank (or behind the bar).
reading the news section of this site for PUB, i see the takeover has been agreed at 180p apparently with Heineken. Price is around 191p/192p so what am I missing? Is it the chance of a further bidder?? At the moment should just sell and bank nice gain, but fact that its above makes me think there is more to come!
Congratulations, holders. Great to see PIs getting great news
Nearly sold these last week am happy to have held
SPMG - I am not invested here but wish to say well done for holding ! RNS gives 174p on one offer and 185p on the other - Halifax SP presently on 172p Regards and GL
Thanks JVAVFC, I was wondering what caused the price increase today. If the suggested takeover price of 180p a share happens, that would be a market cap of £400m. Still quite some way off the net asset value of £700m+, so possibly good scope to increase the offer from the 180p if it's a competitive process.
luck than judgement SPMG!! Share your sentiments - I'll hold while it keeps rising.
Good call on buying in under £1 AP. Hopefully see the rise continue up to results getting announced.
I lied. Article seems to be online only. Anyway, roll on November.
This is what will be in tomorrow's mag: Half full Punch recovering Pub group Punch Taverns appears to have defied initial Brexit gloom with average profits per pub rising 4 per cent. New management recently allowed its publicans, the majority of whom have historically operated under the so-called beer tie, to opt for a new model – the retail contract option. This involves Punch retaining the sales and cost of sales, but paying publicans a percentage to remunerate staff with. Another key development is the hefty £225m reduction (16 per cent) in net debt, which has brought the net debt/cash profits ratio down to 6.6 times – down from 7.2 times last August. Also: In spite of some doom and gloom about post-Brexit Britain, it doesn’t seem our appetitie for going to the pub has been dampened. Pub group Punch Taverns (PUB) has seen the average profit per pub rise 4 per cent, doubly encouraging given recently-installed management there overhauled the way the group operates. It allowed its publicans, the majority of whom have operated under the so-called beer tie, to opt for a new model. This is called the retail contract option, which is where Punch retains the sales and cost of sales but pays the publican a percentage of this which is used to remunerate staff. A total of 177 pubs have opted to run under this model, with 97 of these already doing so or close to converting. Another key development is the hefty £225m reduction (16 per cent) in net debt, which has brought the net debt/cash profits ratio down to 6.6 times - down from 7.2 times last August. And it has announced an additional £83m of property and land sales on top of those it had previously announced.
Thanks for that, I'll have a read and see what their take on it is. Good luck if you've now bought in. As you can see from the lack of posts on this board, it seems to fly under the radar. Hopefully that IC article will breath a bit of life into it. If not, I'll keep topping up the pension if it stays at this level.
I've bought in...
wrote quite a lengthy positive piece about Punch in yesterday's daily market round up but without putting a recommendation next to it. Could be wrong (usually am) but they often follow these up with a full Buy Tip of the Week. Tempted to buy a few as alcohol will never fall out of favour - and neither will land for that matter...
size buys coming in. If I buy they'll drop. If I don't... :-)
That is the question. It has been an unloved stock for so long because it has had so much debt and was always on the cusp of going through a debt restructure. So in the short term, the only thing that i could see causing a rise is if they announce a route to dividends when the results are announced. So if you're a short term investor I'd say buying in the run up to the results is the best bet. I'm tucking this one away on the pension though, so really looking at a 5+ year time horizon. As your initial post says, the stock looks undervalued so hopefully over that time frame we might be looking at around 300p to 400p. Then again, things never work out the way you think.....
but now broker says hold....to buy or not to buy?!
Totally agree with that. From a balance sheet perspective PUB looks seriously undervalued. The only note of caution a would have is that they have some very expensive debt in there - I think it's around £100m which rolls up at 13.5% per annum for the next 10 years. You're right as well that it is very cash generative. As a very rough estimate, it looks like PUB should generate £180m of EBITDA with an interest cost of c£110m, capex of c£10m, debt repayments of c£35m. That would leave around £25m for accelerated debt repayments or restarting dividend payments. Even paying out a £10m dividend against a market cap of £220m is pretty generous. Here's hoping there will be some sort of guidance on dividends in the full year results. DYOR.
Land value (£2bn) - net debt (£1.2bn?) = £800m = 4 x current market cap. If this were a standard property company a 25% NAV discount would still imply £3 per share, plus it has profitable incoming generating pubs for those staycationers to go to.
Would be good to see some commentary on further dealing with the debt pile tomorrow. If they can come to an agreement with the bond holders to pay down the expensive debt with the proceeds from the Matthew Clark sale or other non core disposals that would be progress. That could hopefully see them give guidance on resuming dividend payments in the next couple of years.