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Started: apires, 8 Dec 2021 18:50
Last post: apires, 8 Dec 2021 18:50
Does anyone believe if there will another bid that will be higher than SS&C's offer of 1275p? Furthermore, the price today is lower than the 1275p offered by SS&C. Do we believe that the share price will drop further and as a holder of BP shares, will I get 1275p when the time comes to give them up? Appreciate any thoughts on the above?
Started: Arti, 1 Dec 2021 12:30
Last post: jamstar, 1 Dec 2021 21:37
£15 and a deal can happen. They will probably have to take this to auction
So with the sp rising well above the latest 'accepted' offer, does the market think there will now be another offer from elsewhere resulting in yet another change of heart?!
Started: MrChiswickian, 16 Nov 2021 16:35
Last post: TheTrader99, 26 Nov 2021 12:09
3rd bidder? It is just an increased offer from Vista
3rd bidder entered the room...
Can someone please explain to me why Coast Capital is so concerned with which bid would benefit Blue Prism more and especially whether the acquisition will "help transform SS&C into the clear tech leader"? If all shareholders are getting bought out for cash, then the price received should be the only thing that matters to existing Blue Prism shareholders.
Or is there another layer of conflict of interest where big shareholders like Coast will be given an opportunity to convert their stock to SS&C?
While I'm aligned with Coast that there is conflict of interest on the board recommending the Vista bid, it seems just as fishy that Coast is recommending SS&C for only a smidge higher when previously Rasteh was quoted as saying that even a bid with a 100% premium would vastly under-recognize Blue Prism's intrinsic value. There's some f*ckery going on here on all sides.
Looks like the new bid is getting some support. Maybe Coast is stirring the pot to get a bidding war going as he had already built a 30% no coalition vs. the first bid
“We believe that the bid by SS&C for Blue Prism will, if successful, help transform SS&C into the clear tech leader (and therefore services leader) in the fund admin space,” said James Rasteh, Founding Partner at Coast Capital Management. “This is a visionary move and is indicative of a visionary management team.”
Coast believes SS&C is an incomparably more suitable partner for key stakeholders of Blue Prism than Vista or Tibco, whose questionable dealings and relationship with the CEO of Blue Prism (and at least one compromised board member) prevent investors from considering the Vista offer and process as suitable.
“It is shocking to see that the Board continues to endorse Vista’s bid, which confirms their clear conflict of interest that we have been highlighting since day one,” said Rasteh.
No way either bid goes through at these prices. They are BOTH bad offers! No chance they get 75% approval, and the stock will drop like a rock when it happens. Let's not forget that Blue Prism new business is down 16% year-over-year in the 2nd half of fiscal 2021. The business and its brand has been badly wounded by these management blunders.
I plan to wait for the crash before I touch this stock again.
Last post: AutomationGuru, 13 Nov 2021 07:59
Couldn't agree more. One day business schools will write a case study about the company who invented RPA back in 2001 just to die a slow and painful death 20 years later just as the industry it created is taking off.
Blunders include:
1) Massive underinvestment allowing competitors to catch up and surpass it
2) Choosing to aquire Thoughtonomy
3) Terrible string of hiring decisions. Replacing incompetent people with different incompetent people.
4) Selecting board members with conflicts of interest and no skin in the game
5) Letting corrupt leadership (CFO) get away with insider trading while misleading shareholders
6) Never listing in the U.S. to unlock easy value
7) Terrible investor relations and marketing
8) Favoring cash flow break-even over growth
9) Giving up and selling the company for 1/4 what it should be worth, while taking golden parachutes to do so.
Anything I missed?
I've sold up now and am v disappointed with how this has played out. Still watching to see if there is another opportunity.
However I think the BOD should hang their heads in shame, I feel they have somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with their running of a company with such potential
Started: AutomationGuru, 9 Nov 2021 10:30
Last post: AutomationGuru, 11 Nov 2021 14:54
The CFO is clearly the most unethical and corrupt of all of the actors involved. It's not just that he doesn't have any shares and is basically being bribed to go along with the acquisition, it's also that he sold all of his shares in February right before the huge drop in the share price. INSIDER TRADING! LOCK. HIM. UP.
The CFO has zero shares in the company, but Tibco are going to pay him £500,000 if the deal goes through. There has never been a more biased trading update. He should be in jail for insider trading.
From the trading update just released.....
"Net new bookings2 are expected to be circa £114m, compared to £122m last year. On a constant currency basis, this represents 3% decline. For the second half of the fiscal year, net new bookings declined by 16%, or 13% on constant currency basis, year-on-year."
This management team not only botched running the company, but their shenanigans have now run off new customers. Smh.
Started: AutomationGuru, 21 Oct 2021 07:31
Last post: AutomationGuru, 27 Oct 2021 19:29
November 19th is the in-person meeting, although proxy votes occur sooner.
When is the vote by the way?
@Lsoc85, what specifically in the scheme document switched to your decision from hold to sell everything? I haven't read it yet (because I sold everything myself weeks ago), but now I'm curious. The die hard fans of this company keep dropping like flies.
Today's scheme document with TU has changed the situation. I'm out. Will keep an interested eye on the outcome of the meeting. If it crashes down to £7 I may well have another look. But for now, cheerio.
Half Year Report - 17 June 2021 - reiterating First Half Update of 17 May 2021:
"The Group continues to plan to achieve exit run-rate underlying cash breakeven within the 2021 financial year and continues to expect financial performance to be in the ranges outlined at the May trading update."
We know, as AG has previously outlined, that the BoD are being bonused on getting this dreadful deal over the line.
But to what lengths are they willing to go? The confidence of break-even by October 21 is there for all to see, not once but twice.
Do we actually think this BoD would sabotage the PLC to achieve this deal? By either ensuring it didn't achieve break even or deliberately giving a pessimistic TU?
For me, the sp direction will be determined by the TU due in c. 4 weeks' time.
As a profitable, stand alone PLC with £170m AR and 98% retained revenue, I don't think it will be two years before the price recovers to well above its current level.
Again, AIMHO.
I might well get a smacked arse but I'm holding nonetheless!
Started: Lsoc85, 13 Oct 2021 11:36
Last post: AutomationGuru, 15 Oct 2021 14:48
@Lsoc85, I bought in for the long term as well. No matter how low the stock price went, I wasn't ever too worried because I knew it would come back as the industry grew 30% per year between now and 2027. The only way to lose was if management sold the company for a bad price locking in losses and eliminating the option to ride out the volatility. I put the odds of that circumstance very low since only a moronic (or corrupt) board would do such a thing, but here we are.
I'm making money elsewhere on what I sold instead of leaving this tied up for 3 months. But I can assure you that if the bid fails and the price drops significantly, I remain interested in buying back the long-term upside.
@Lsoc85. I sold out as well - dead money at the moment. May buy in again either after a failed bid or if we hear news of another bidder.
Worst case scenario, if you really believe in the company - Vista will IPO Tibco in 1-2 years. You can then invest in the combined company if the deal goes through.
Disappointing to see you go, AG, but I can't fault your logic. I'll be holding because when I bought in, I bought in for the long term. I might well get stung but that's investing... you win some, you lose some! Ha!
Love the company, but I think the share price tanks when the bid fails to get 75% approval. I think there will be a wide chasm between what Vista would be willing to sweeten the deal to, and what shareholders require to sell. For example, I invested 1.5 years ago thinking that this was a 3x-5x return between now and 2024 after hours and hours of research. I thought that by fall of 2021, the share price would be double what it is now, especially after the UiPath IPO and resulting valuation.
Bottom line, I sold my shares because I think the market will react negatively to a failed bid and realization that Blue Prism is going to have to right the ship on its own (and after cleaning house on the board and management team). Once the share price settles, I may be interested in buying back, but I'm not going to sit here and wait until January to receive a buyout price that I can sell and receive now while also risking a 30% plummet if and when the bid fails.
I'm holding in the hope that Vista have a budget of $2bn and they are willing to pay it if it looks like shareholders will reject.
But that's only going to give a modest profit. Better than a modest loss, mind.
If they did increase to $2bn that would put us on c.£14.90...
With the negative attitude of the board, I've lost hope of anything above that... and it won't have been the board that will have squeezed out the extra value, it will have been the shareholders by rejecting the current scandalous valuation.
Obviously the sp may crash if the deal is rejected and Vista don't increase their offer.
Bleak.
Started: Neel13, 12 Oct 2021 12:06
Last post: Ogggs, 12 Oct 2021 13:58
Looks like any optimism of a materially higher counter bid has pretty much disappeared.
Place your bet as nobody knows if another offer comes in or shareholders vote for the deal (unlikely)
In the meantime the price should do very little +/- 3% from where we are.
As no shareholder vote date has been set, we don't even know how long the wait will be
Hi Guys,
Anyone knows where this is going as still holding
Started: jamstar, 6 Oct 2021 09:43
Last post: AutomationGuru, 7 Oct 2021 21:29
@jamstar, great points! And you have to wonder how many of those 27 prospects didn't submit a bid because they either felt like it was a lost cause or the process was too rushed as Coast Capital eluded to. That said, I don't see them coming back to the table either......at least until the vote fails to get 75% approval. Then, anything is possible.
AutomationGuru, I think you're right - this will take time. To be clear, sending feelers out to 20 odd companies is typical. I guess now they know the going price, someone previously approached may still put a bid in. I can tell you from my current corporate
strategy experience, we get approached almost daily by the likes of Qatalyst with companies that want investment or are looking to sell out. In many cases we pass because we are brought in too late to the process, have no resources to give proper diligence, or we think the asking price is too high.
I still think it might be worth holding a position but maybe take some funds out for a few weeks for better investment opps. I can't help but look at the 8.3 forms and see very little selling activity and folks like Polygon keep adding. What do they know that we don't?
@Dave321, To my knowledge, they haven't announced a date but I believe they eluded to it being in "weeks". So likely by end of October. That said, I would speculate that it will drag out past the initial vote. Even if it goes through, shareholders probably wouldn't get paid until 2022.
Does anyone know the date of the vote?
Started: PYUECK, 6 Oct 2021 10:08
Last post: PYUECK, 6 Oct 2021 17:45
Good to get others perspectives. Perhaps we were trying to use robotics in the wrong place or implement it in a place where there are too many variables in the input (basically we were trying to remove the need for the manual input of data from reports into a system and replace it with a robot). The reports are inconsistent in formatting and therefore there were just too many times that the thing didn't work and every time it required somebody to configure the robot to resolve errors. I am sure in some instances robots can be great, but this whole experience has put my team right off it. Big bill and very little to show for it.
Robotics has its place. I've helped implement a project at a UK bank way back in 2015 when I was in management consulting and saw the benefits first hand, but it is no silver bullet and success depends on the implementation.
Most firms saw this as an alternative to offshoring jobs by instead making higher quality jobs supported by robots handling the mundane.
The main risk is longer term, better systems/ software will create fewer tasks to automate/ digitize. Banks and insurance companies love robotics because its a cheap band aid to fix legacy systems where a core replatform could run in the hundreds of millions of pounds
I have the opposite experience. I work with four large banks and one insurance company. They all use BP , they were quick to implement processes and they all see great cost savings and good quality on the running processes. They all startet implementing in 2016 and still expanding number of robots
As somebody who works at what should be an ideal client for Blue Prism, let me say that whilst robotics will have some areas where it may add value, the costs of execution and the effectiveness of what is delivered are not there yet. We spent 6 months getting a robot designed and implemented (not with blue prism) at huge costs and the end results are that it takes longer to use the robot than what was previously done. I’m sure that this will improve with time but as the idea of robotics was to save time and money and improve accuracy, currently we are miles from there. Sure will change and improve with time but suspect blue prism will not be the company to take advantage of it. Just my take on it is that shareholders should take the offer. If you read management statements they are clearly not that optimistic about blue prisms prospects as an independent entity. My view is take the money and run, think people got rather overexcited about the companies prospects which I doubt will materialise. The purchase price is still many multiples of revenues.
Started: AutomationGuru, 4 Oct 2021 18:14
Last post: jamstar, 5 Oct 2021 10:05
Really depends on the scenario. It would be a positive to the stock price if activist investors take over. If the same crew stick around we could see £10 with the offer being somewhat of a reality check on valuation
Good point @jamstar - there is that at least. I just keep wondering what happens to the share price when the acquisition falls through? Does it tank back to what it was in August before the takeover interest started? Seems like the upside is limited (with this bozo management team dead set on selling), but the downside is still very real if the market reacts negatively when they can't get 75% shareholder approval. What do you all think?
Look at the bright side, while the rest of the market crashes the price of this stays roughly at the offer price.
It's a new week, but I'm still fuming about this debacle. That's all. This chat board is my only therapy.
Started: Lsoc85, 30 Sep 2021 23:56
Last post: Jonnyr, 1 Oct 2021 15:50
Jamstar I mean - I so want .....
I so want you to be right!
Totally agree @Jamstar! I like the sound of the 1st outcome!
No deal is happening at this price. There are only two outcomes 1) a coalition of institutions led by Coast bring in a new management team and a new board and accelerate US listing and R&D investment into the business or 2) an offer materializes at a more reasonable level. Either way, Kingdon's days are limited.
might squeeze a few more percent out but hard to see the take out price being where many thought/hoped it would be
Started: jamstar, 1 Oct 2021 12:47
Last post: jamstar, 1 Oct 2021 12:47
Just reported a 5% stake. They bought derivatives (CFDs) to prevent the stock price spiking with trying to buy in such a large position. Interesting gamble to take without actually owning shares to influence voting.
Started: Lsoc85, 30 Sep 2021 21:37
Last post: Lsoc85, 30 Sep 2021 23:22
It wasn't even last year that Kingdon said that, guru. It was this February.
What a mother****er.
Don't put your faith in the system, pal. The only thing that will let us reach potential here is the shareholders rejecting this 'deal' and the board being ousted.
I'd like to see some ruthless businesspeople at the top of this PLC. Not these ten a penny jokers robbing a living in business class. ******* s. The whole BoD.
@Lsoc85, it's comforting to meet someone who curses as much as I have been the past couple days! :)
I agree with you though. It's the ineptitude of the management and the rampant conflict of interest, insider trading, and/or corruption that I just can't swallow. Let's recap:
1) CFO Ijoma Maluza gives overly optimistic guidance to the market regarding fiscal 2021 only to sell 95%+ of his shares immediately after his options unlocked in February 2021 conveniently right before the stock price started to slide. The price he sold at was 50% higher than the takeover bid he is now recommending that shareholders accept. He is now receiving a big piece of a 1M pound bonus that the executives will be receiving from Vista to go along with this terrible deal.
2) CEO Jason Kingdon was quoted last year saying that Blue Prism was MULTIPLES undervalued compared to its U.S. peers, and this was back before the stock really started sliding. Now, all of a sudden he thinks this is a great deal to recommend to shareholders. In addition, the only recent purchase he made was back when the stock was at 1,100 GBP. Funny how he agreed to 1,125 GBP buyout price so he doesn't lock in losses like the other shareholders. Hmm.
3) Maybe the worst of all, Murray Rode was brought in as an "independent" member of the board of directors in 2021. Mr. Rode is the Vice Chairman and former CEO of Tibco (the company Vista wants to roll Blue Prism into). To my knowledge, he holds very little Blue Prism stock, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that he maintains a **** load of Tibco stock. He was likely the ring leader setting up the deal with Tibco, and will benefit to an enormous degree by selling Blue Prism to Tibco for very cheap. His greed and doing what is best for himself and not the shareholders is pitiful.
It says in the offer document that the acquisition will not go through until all of the appropriate regulatory authorities approve it. I'm not sure what the laws are like in the UK are, but the SEC would not let this fly in the U.S. There are blatant conflicts of interest at a minimum, and maybe worse (fraud, corruption, insider dealings, etc.).
It's not the PLC that needs disposing of here, it's the ****ing management.
Imagine taking over a company two years since and ****ing it up to such an extent that you justify a sale against a FOUR YEAR LOW because it gives a c.30% premium on the price when the offer came in (i.e when the bid period started at the end of August).
Embarrassing and pathetic this Board of Directors. And that **** Kingdon, who somehow still got the backing of 65% of shareholders this March, is the most embarrassing and pathetic of the lot.
If this dreadful deal doesn't go through, Kingdon and his ****s need to **** off. Sharpish. They've failed.
Get someone in to cull the overheads and the incredible amount of middle managers and vice presidents in the business (just look at LinkedIn for all the meaningless job titles that exist in the PLC).
Invest in the actual tech that people believe in: the value accruing part of the business.
The BoD under Kingdon have been a ****ing shambles. Not a business head between the ****s.
Hello fellow Oldhamer... Yes, bouncing around but not a very wide range. Seems to me that the prospect of a higher bid is diminishing.
share price is bouncing about all over the place, market doesn't know what to do with us
HMI completely sold out now. Shame to lose the second largest shareholder who had 6%+. Indicates they don't want to fight the offer and/or could no longer see eye to eye with the board/ management.
Sold 3m shares yesterday cutting their position by half. Second largest shareholder pre-deal and now second institution to sell.
Polygon keep adding shares and derivative long positions
Last post: NeilNewman, 30 Sep 2021 10:31
I'm out, it has been an interesting, if ultimately a very disappointing journey...
@Break possibly, but for the board to recommend Vista means no viable alternative has reached a late stage yet. I reluctantly trimmed my position down by 30% at 1160 once the TPG news was made
There must be another buyer in the picture now, otherwise, this would have gone through the floor after the TPG announcement
Further to the announcement made by Blue Prism on 31 August 2021 regarding possible offers for Blue Prism, TPG Capital, the private equity platform of alternative asset firm TPG, ("TPG") confirms that it does not intend to make an offer for Blue Prism.
Started: gunders, 29 Sep 2021 16:07
Last post: cashrules, 29 Sep 2021 17:54
Themselves! is the answer to that one.
The market is quite clearly saying that the present offer is too low.
What were the BoD thinking of?
Maybe this could be a turning point. The biggest owners don't accept the bid, BoD is changed and then listing at Nasdaq.
30 £ in a year
Started: Lsoc85, 29 Sep 2021 14:39
Last post: NeilNewman, 29 Sep 2021 15:58
David Brown, portfolio manager at Hawk Ridge Capital Management, said in an interview he is supportive of the company being sold, but not at the 1,125 pence a share price.
“It is a very low price based on our analysis of comparable companies and transactions,” Brown said.
At least one top 10 shareholder in automation software firm Blue Prism Group Plc isn’t happy with the price the company was offered by Vista Equity Partners.
David Brown, portfolio manager at Hawk Ridge Capital Management, said in an interview he is supportive of the company being sold, but not at the 1,125 pence a share price.
“It is a very low price based on our analysis of comparable companies and transactions,” Brown said.
He added, “We think the company is going to realize greater value with a different owner but we are very skeptical that the recommended price represents full value.”
Brown said his firm is still evaluating the offer but is unlikely to support the transaction.
A representative for Blue Prism wasn’t immediately available for comment.
Hawk Ridge said it’s been an investor in Blue Prism for more than two years.
Hawk Ridge, based in Los Angeles, owns about 3.5% of Blue Prism shares making it the 10th largest shareholder, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
@Break, any way you can paste the contents of that Bloomberg article into the chat?
It's clear that many people can't believe they've sold at such a low price - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-28/top-10-blue-prism-shareholder-unlikely-to-support-vista-deal
Peculiar price action on PRSM... it's either folk closing short positions or the market doesn't think that the sale will go through at £11.25.
If the sale doesn't go through (fingers crossed for that), Kingdon and his cronies need to **** off sharpish and let an actual business man or woman have a crack of the whip.
TPG have ruled themselves out.
Started: Neel13, 29 Sep 2021 12:51
Last post: jamstar, 29 Sep 2021 14:25
Neel13
Yes, any other party can put a bid in after the 28th
They have 23% from the 75% declared. These are Jupiter, Edge Capital, two founders and the CEO. Long way to go
hi Jamstar,
THank you for that so from my understanding all bids had to be in by 28th or only for TPG and Vista?
Are you saying they could have bids today too from other parties? Are there any other parties that came up?
Also to get 11.25 they need 75% of shareholders to agree ( i read this somewhere) how much have they got at the moment if anyone knows .
@Neel13 Possibly made an offer before 5 PM but its taking Blue Prism board to evaluate today before they issue news. Also, the 28th deadline was for TPG and Vista, other bidders can appear. As someone said earlier, its hope that kills you. Only one institution has sold out, so its not just retail that thinks its worth taking a risk.
other potential bidders or, more likely, the current bidder realises they may have to pay more to get the verdict
But i thought yesterday was the deadline...
Please explain..... I thought no bids after the 28th?
There is also a significant increase in trading volume
There still seems to be some interest in the share. Is it shorts being closed or hope of further news?
Started: Break, 28 Sep 2021 22:49
Last post: Jonnyr, 29 Sep 2021 11:10
To my mind the price agreed reflects capitulation rather than negotiation
I can't believe the BOD is happy to negotiate & accept an offer when the SP is at its near 5 year low.
We have had one offer and the BoD has thrown in the towel claiming the headwinds the company faces and the difficultly raising funds in London means it's better to cut and run for them (some having sold at £25 previously).
Vista may have got themselves a bargain, or a pile of pooh, but BP is still small beer, perhaps too small to interest the big boys.
Whilst the market is pricing in a slightly higher offer, the talk of £18 plus looks wide of the market. I have invested on and off in this company for years and only ever lost money, so I'm out. (The price will now rocket lol!)
GLA
R
Weird, feels like someone knows something we don't. Only one institutional investor sold out 1.1m shares (1%) yesterday, rest are holding strong
Or apparently increase
Just people guessing something else will happen here?
Started: EileenKrapp, 28 Sep 2021 23:46
Last post: EileenKrapp, 28 Sep 2021 23:46
I think the PE group buying this company will regret it. Their software isn't that useful and is overrated.
Just saying
Started: AutomationGuru, 28 Sep 2021 21:28
Last post: AutomationGuru, 28 Sep 2021 21:28
As if we needed any worse luck today, the U.S. market is being torn apart on the fear that the U.S. government will default. So all of my other investments are tanking simultaneously. FML.
Surely the U.S. government won't default unless our leaders are dumber than I thought they were. Then again, I said the same thing about my Blue Prism investment being rock solid unless management is dumb enough to sell at a lowball price. Lesson learned. The idiots are running amok in this crazy upside-down world!
Last post: MattTheBrave, 28 Sep 2021 19:09
You'd better hope the SH's agree, 'cause if not, you'll lose your 1125 floor. For the management to agree this deal, they must know there's some big challenges in the business (CFO's share sales at higher prices does nothing to dissuade this view). I'm out this morning at 11.60, and very happy to have done so.
The £25 was tongue in cheek. May as well dream big! This sort of thing does make you wonder what goes on behind the scenes - pre-announcement leaks and vested interests...
£25 would be a dream at this stage. If a new bid comes in it will be at £12-£13. Lets see if new bidders appear. Its a very tempting valuation to be honest. If none do I think they will struggle to get the 75% approval threshold.
Expect the stock to drop to £11.1 range tomorrow if no new bid is announced at opening
Why would anyone offer £25 for something when the seller has publicly agreed to accept just over £11? Thankfully I am only down a few % but there are others who have been stung badly. Crap deal and crap management.
It does leave a bit of head scratching. Of course shareholder approval is still required and let's hang onto that slither of hope that a pre 5pm £25 per share bid was sneaked in....