Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Nicely explained GRH. There's no future for shale. Did you send your earlier message to flagstaff? From what I've also researched, morroco should be able to go ahead. We may be erroring on the side of caution.
@nico gas prices have held up surprisingly well this past week whilst everything has crashed.
Very concisely explained GRH. Shale fracking is clearly not going to be around long term. I'm wondering how long it will be for more nations follow Ireland and France in worrying about the environmental impact if US fracked LNG.
As this bogeyman isn't going to.be around for ever, we need to make hay whilst the sun shines to exploit our Green credentials to the max. Make an enemy of US fracking whilst the fracking industry is still big enough and powerful enough to be of serious concern to the Green movement.
PART 2...
BUT here is the even bigger problem:
the fundings for these drills have often been arranged over much longer primary periods...
such that, in many cases, there has not been sufficient cash flow to repay the capital borrowed ...
never mind the interest charged!
But then of course ...more and more holes have to be drilled to try to maintain the same volumes of hydrocarbons ...at field and/or corporate or country level
That simple phenomenon broke not only many of the shale exploration companies ...
but indeed the banks financing them
some very big banking names hold shale debt on their balance sheets ...debt that in my opinion is often worthless
The shale industry had made ENORMOUS progress in reducing costs
and thus lowering the ROIs needed for a drill to still work economically
but that process of cost reductions/efficiency gains had to finish at some point...
there being a finite limit as to HOW efficient a physical industry can become
I firmly believe that such limit has been reached...
bar some exceptions that may have a few residual %s still to go
IMO
IRELAND IS VERY WISE NOT TO WANT SHALE GAS FOR THEIR ENERGY SUPPLIES
Yes it accords with the Greens’ thinking
But vitally...
it is vanishingly unlikely to provide the energy security that Ireland so keenly needs
ATB
Afternoon all
Please look away now if boredom comes readily!
And I do appreciate the following will be 101 level to some people here...sorry !
Zebra
yes...shale fracking is effectively banning itself/creating its own demise...
that process is irreversible
As many here will know, the reason is very simple:
conventional (example sandstone) , reservoirs can have both high porosity (capable of holding high volumes of hydrocarbons relative to the measured volumes of rock)
and
high permeability (interconnectivity of voids in rock) allowing decent flow rates to reach the surface
of course such reservoirs can have decent porosity but lousy permeability...
meaning the good volumes of hydrocarbons enclosed within the rock are very difficult/often not economic to bring to surface
the reverse is true...ie decent permeability but not much to bring to surface...
that is often because the hydrocarbons are not only 'energetic' (my own term re RSDD-H usage)
but have enjoyed an escape route to surface over geological time...
and thus have depleted the reservoirs/affected the quality of what remains
Of course it is also possible to find conventional reservoirs with neither great porosity nor much permeability
IMO...that was the problem for Sound...not high porosity
but also some pretty grim permeability
BUT shale is VERY different
The shales themselves are almost impermeable (not totally)
but they are interleaved one with another
(think of layers of a newspaper ?
or maybe puff pastry being comprised of many thin layers of pastry interleaved with butter?)
And it is the voids between the (often micro) layers of shales (pages or pastry layers) that hold the hydrocarbons...
those voids often have very high porosity indeed
but they had not been able to give up their riches over geological time
and the hydrocarbons have just resided there
and then the area is drilled and fracked
All hell then breaks out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
...as the hydrocarbons are given clear routes to surface
and they are VERY keen to escape
(we will not go into pressure regimes here but it is an interesting subject)
That means that, when fracked, shale rocks can often produce very high flow rates ...
and at seemingly attractive costs of exploration/drilling
But the rub is this:
They only do so for a short period of time...
and then start their inevitable decline...it is terminal
Those decline rates can hit such high %s that a fracked well can become non viable in fewer than 12 months...
2-3 years to non commercially viable status being not uncommon
BUT here is the even bigger problem:
the fundings for these drills have often been arranged over much longer primary periods...
such that, in many cases, there has not been sufficient cash flow to repay the capital borrowed ...
never mind the interest charged!
But then of course ...more and more holes have to be drilled to try to maintain th
Agree Z, that writing defo is on the wall for US shale, I didn't believe Biden would ban fracking after his public commitments but think he will make life very awkward.
Maybe if WTi stays below $40 or even drops further for a length of time, it may die a natural death. Poo doesn't really bother me as my o & g investments are all either bigger in gas than oil, or or aiming to be eg. PRD so I'm more than amply compensated with Natural Gas prices.
@nico I don't think either would make a difference. Biden has been clear he won't ban fracking, despite what the trump camp claims.
Exxon is considering writing down $30bil in shale assets.
Regardless of who potus is, shale extraction is expensive and has already peaked.
As an aside and forgetting all other considerations, who would be best POTUS as far as PRD's share price is concerned?
Biden, I believe will go to war on US shale and that must be good for the o&g industry elsewhere.
Trump. Sure there will be a Trump bounce in the markets, particularly o&g.
Also if US continues to dominate as the world's largest producer by fracking, we have a big,bad benchmark to measure against so our product appears even more squeaky clean than opposed to oil/gas produced conventionally.