Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Any confirmed delay will see another 18% drop and yet another opportunity for those pesky traders. No wonder the wolves are out.
Do you see a pattern MEM?
MOU2 - Still working on that pesky mud solution after 15 months
MOU1-3 Still working on that pesky flow solution after 3 years
I know what let’s have MOU5, should be drilled some point in 2024 that will keep the troops hoping…..
Still GRH will confuse the world with cryptic Twitter posts and Ozy Keith will keep the flag flying high.
next time this year Rodney…
Nope, not expecting anything from them and if they do communicate who knows what timelines they’ll give and whether they’ll be adhered to anyway.
We can all agree the potential here is significant but with how’s things are run, I’m not sure it’ll even reach it.
There have been many thought provoking posts around Timelines, Budgeting constraints, Testing and Drilling.
It seems that 2 main items are repeated by our management
Missed Timescales and zero Communication to update us mere mortals, the SH who make all this possible.
On this we can probably all agree, or maybe not !!
Tomorrow is the last day of April, is PG really not going to update us on SJ, Tubing and a drilling timescale for MOU -5 ?????
MEM
Ford/GRH/Keith
If the rig isn't available, do you think we should crack on with Sandjet or wait for an indeterminate time?
Is there a time frame without action in which you think the BoD would be required to update shareholders on plans?
Kit costs money and what we need is clearly in demand so it may be that to save on costs the activities need to be staggered out of necessity or we would just be paying for rig/tubing to sit idle while waiting for other to become free.
If we tests 260m and get anywhere near 1m/scf a meter then based on the NPV of the CNG and other uses it would be a very positive result and could be compartmentalised in event of an offer being made.
There are potentially large sums at stake but we don't know for sure and market doesn't yet buy in. Blindly trusting regardless of elastic timeframes is something few CEOs would get away with.
It's a simple hypothetical to answer and something most folk face daily about deliverables and decisions on what to prioritise.
Of course I cannot comment on what I think we should do if that were the case because I do not have the information required to make that sort of decision.
Do I think prd want to crack on and bring this to fruition? 100%
Do I trust Paul and Lonny to make the best decision for the company? 100%
Do I think the vast majority outside of the company want us to have a prolonged period of quiet time? 100%
There is a lot of money at stake!
Ford/GRH/Keith
If the rig isn't available, do you think we should crack on with Sandjet or wait for an indeterminate time?
Is there a time frame without action in which you think the BoD would be required to update shareholders on plans?
I can see that you will continue to skirt around my questions.
You have not answered any of them.
Would you like me to re-post the original message?
Ford, Prd have as yet proven nothing, potential is there, however not one successful flow test has been conducted. As Jimmy also alludes there is no 3 D seismic anywhere on Guercif .
I hold for the potential though …
Once a flow test is proven to flow commercial gas it will be 18 -24 months away imo before anything is monitised, we have no licences even .
Cash burn is also concerning me greatly.. even more so now we are paying for Tobago and additional headcount there. Cash on hand end of Dec 23 was GBP 6.5mm…. We spent GBP 3.4mm in O and A costs last year. 4 months of this year gone, wonder how much we have spent , we also spent at least $700 k on failed perforating work earlier in year. If rig is not available until August we will be down to circa £3.5mm gbp and out of that we also have to pay for very expensive sandjetting and testing…
Chariot have their own issues, most which I go into on their board, however I will add your
Filtration system is flawed, both companies have issues, I cannot see PRD being the chosen one over Chariot, which is why I hold shares in both.. imo Cash is going to be a serious issue here by August, which I think it will be when we drill , no matter what has been stated by our BOD.
And lest we forget, the reason we don't know quite when the rig will be available for Titanosaurus is because Chariot are drilling....onshore. Ostensibly drilling puddles for CNG, same advantages as CNG here, but they are also having a peek beneath the puddles. Seismic points to greater potential. I am also in both Char and PRD.
Keith
I.think there are more than 1 types of posters.
I'm positive on prospects but negative on the Time it is taking to progress. If SV-101 is not available until August do people seriously suggest we wait until then for Sandjet to have results come out along with drilling?
So would that mean that all going well predator could or should be first into production?
Would it mean that Chariot will have to give a chunk of equity away for the finance?
I am only trying to assess things of course from a basic view point.
We are all here to make money in an honourable way.
The main concern is always the things out of your control.
Ford,
I expect anchois to be in production in about 2.5 years, which I expect will be fully financed by energean
So far with predator it takes nearly three years to perform a flow test since mou 1 and even then i expect a successful flow test will be followed by a period of 12 to 18 months to get a production concession from the government.
It’s now more than three months since the application to extend stage 1 of the licence, it should have been awarded by now, I hope there is not a problem
Jimmy
Assuming prd do not have anymore holds up in terms of equipment/rigs and things getting through beyond their control of course.
And in terms of potential time scales of production from Chariot as apposed to prd would be what Jimmy?
You have constantly been bashing down prd and its knowledgable investors which includes the board members.
You have said that you’re balanced and invested in both companies which is why I have asked for your negatives regarding chariot. I know your negative views regarding prd and your positives regarding chariot.
It is prd’s positives and chariots negatives that I find of great interest.
For the sake of moving this forward and for the sanity of us all I will briefly answer your question.
First part of the system,
1/ Balance sheet, debt and potential investment needed for revenue.
Prd goes through Chariot does not.
Chariot off shore and in need of a large investment to get it moving.
Prd on shore, cheap drilling and and seem to be very close to potential revenue if testing goes well and has four wells already drilled.
Ford,
I am invested in both chariot and prd.
Yes, there are problems with chariot, it’s renewables business has a long payback, it’s hydrogen business is not yet commercial and it’s unclear as to how and when it will be commercial, and like predator, they are not in production cashflow to finance follow on drilling.
However, they do have onshore and offshore 3D seismic, the reservoir intersections offshore are very much thicker than typically found by predator onshore and chariot extensively measure and sample gas reservoirs which predator have opted to measure by way of the long awaited flow test.
J
Tell you what Ford, you tell me your unique filtration system and advise why PRD passed it and no one else did and I will look at answering your questions.
Cheers
Couldn’t agree more Keith,
I wonder whether or not The Bold will answer my questions or not?
Perhaps I will have to ask the questions on the chariot board for him/her to answer which I am happy to do.
Tbh honest Jimmy knows an awful lot about Chariot so I wonder whether I should ask him instead.
Both the bold and Jimmy have stated that they’re invested in both companies and I am genuinely wondering if I should as well.
I know both their views regarding positive and negative in terms of prd but I have not seen any of the potential negatives regarding chariot.
@TheBold. You state "Keith from Oz, looks like you personally know our world famous GRH, from your last sentence". If I did, why would this be a problem for you? For clarification, I have never met GRH nor spoken to him, in fact the last time I was in the UK was 2005. We do occasionally exchange technical views via the messaging apps, as I do with many other serious investors, some who post here, some who do not.
I first looked at this BB a couple of days after the first MOU-1 announcement, because I was totally bemused by the fall in share price after what I viewed as a very positive RNS, made even more positive after the two following RNS's, which clearly indicated an important discovery. At that time, GRH's opinion (and that of several others who clearly had a good technical understanding) was the same as my own. There were of course others with an opposite view, based on no stated facts, such as some clown called Nigel who said at the time 'admit it, MOU-1 is a duster' or words very close to that.
Over the following three years it is apparent that there are two types of commentators here:
1. Those that provide a generally positive commentary, based on stated assumptions and referenced facts.
2. Those that provide a generally negative opinion, based solely on unverifiable opinions.
@Jimmy. I am not an expert on RSDD-H nor other hyperspectral analysis tools. I have asked questions previously, and understand that the way it works is not just by identifying low levels of hydrocarbons at surface, but among other indicators, to recognise the effects on soil and vegetation of long-term exposure to H/Cs. As such, detection can occur through what might otherwise be considered total seals - there is an instance of identification of a reservoir through 2km of salt, subsequently confirmed by drilling. You will of course be aware that salt is widely regarded as the ultimate reservoir seal. There was also a suggestion some months ago that MOU-2 was not totally sealed, confirmed only recently by Paul that gas had indeed been detected above the slumped mud seal in the borehole. There are plenty of published reviews on the web suggesting that hyperspectral analysis is a valuable exploration tool - however, it is clearly not a standalone holy grail, but brings very much enhanced results when used in combination with traditional seismic, particularly in optimising drill positioning.
btw, you have recently repeatedly referred to "reservoirs where the top seal has been breached by basin inversion and gas (has) escaped." Guercif has of course undergone two periods of inversion - the first was 175 Ma, so some 170 million years before the gas was emplaced and the basin sealed, therefore not relevant. The second inversion was quite minor, and just before or during when the Neogene sedimentary seals were laid down, thus unlikely to affect these. This is why all the seismic slices show the complex fault structures in the Guercif Basin terminating below the surface. I am confident that the geologically recent seals are very much in place and that the gas which was emplaced shortly after this has not escaped. I base my views on a number of published technical papers, in particular Bernini & Sani 1994:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46603074_The_Neogene_Taza-Guercif_Basin
and Gomez 2000: https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/aapgbull/article-abstract/84/9/1340/39833/Structure-and-Evolution-of-the-Neogene-Guercif
I have a file of over 200 relevant academic papers, articles and extracts from textbooks, which all present essentially the same viewpoint.
Are you sure investing in African exploration is for you?
Should we not be testing by now as we are at the end of April or atleast have a definite start date at the very least.
I know what the opinions are with regards to the big boy investors here.
You’re putting yourself forward constantly with posts trying to discredit those big boy investors and I would like to know what you’re basing your opinions on.
Yes I would like to know your positives and negatives with regards to chariot because they’re an operator in direct competition with a company (prd) that I am invested in.
I have learnt to use an investing filtration system where by you put the information in and filter it through the system.
The information I have with regards to chariot didn’t get very far through this system whereas prd made it through all the way.
I like to be balanced and if I can make more elsewhere then I will do exactly that.
From what I have seen it seems as though some chariot holders have perhaps moved their or some of their investment into prd.
Thai would align with my own filtration system so yes I would love to know more.
I can repost my previous post if you’re struggling with what questions I asked.