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The cynic in me has always had one thought. Even now looking at the trading trends on the AIX. Management thought, hoped, pushed via the London Group Admin, IR whoever they ate. To get out of the UK brokers and register with one of the Kazakhstan brokers. If not that go to certificate or Tabys then to the brokers. Liquidity would increase and shares would be sold. Possibly to an unknown large buyer at these low prices. The transit away from Retail which is of benefit to the larger holders and the company. There's too much retail in here for any boards liking. Hence the continuing doom talk of no dividends and years of bulking up. The CEO is sick of retail moaning having bought in big at way below the likes of Blackrock and other institutions.
But retail are not trading on the AIX retail are just sitting it out which is frustrating Management. Every turn its just sell out then if you don't like what we are doing. There's retail guys with 100s of thousands of shares.
If you look at the trades on the AIX it's all really odd the price moves on one trade at 1 share volume but does not on 100, 000. My bet is Possibly HAYLK the market maker is hoovering up for someone but its all way too slow.
The cynical side thinks Management want you gone and the current play is too get you to sell. The Oman boys will be Management friendly not retail investors friendly so don’t expect much now until the free-floating shares have shrunk away from retail into the big boys accounts. It's just getting a little too obvious now.
The authorities should be persuaded to remove useless sanctions
What are the other options.
Maybe, roll over and let the invasion go unpunished?
(What country would be next on the list? Because there is a list.)
How about a full scale war? I suppose gold would increase in value, so lets pick that.
It's easy to be critical from ones ivory tower.
" Sanctions are for the purpose of punishing and here we give a reward to the person we want to punish"
Could not agree more, there are so many companies with innocent shareholders being forced to take huge losses to so governments can tick political boxes. Not only do I hold POLY but also BP and SHEL, BP had to give away £25bn and SHEL £5bn due to UK government policies and then got hit with a 75% EPL tax but obviously better off than POLY. The main benefactor of these policies is Russia who will end up getting a lot of great assets for virtually nothing, the other result is a closer links between Russia China, India and Iran all caused by our useless politicians.
I'm not American most of the polymetal investors have suffered heavy losses or others who were forced to sell or hang up if the investment is with banks or brokers who stopped supporting the worst stock at the moment, those who transferred to aix the return of the money is problematic and there seems to be no hope. At the moment the control after Nisis sold Polymetal 10 Blackrock 25 Oman 45 funds mostly American remained 20 percent the rest of the world which are English Americans and institutions. In short the sanctions in Polymetal Russia are against investors who have no reason to punish them. On the other hand there is the holding of Polymetal Russia which in order to get out of the sanctions it must sell it. Take a factory that will sell 70 percent of its production parts under duress what is left . Remember this is gold and silver mining and being forced to sell it under pressure is to give a gift to the Russians who will buy it. Sanctions are for the purpose of punishing and here we give a reward to the person we want to punish. It is about gold and money, and the sanctions create a situation where the Russians receive a reward from silver and gold mines that belong to neutral people for less than half the price of the value. Therefore if there are Americans who have access to the sanctions factors in the USA on Polymetal Russia please contact them to remove the sanctions and prevent The forced sale is the only good thing that will happen that Russia will control the gold and silver mines of Polymetal Russia for less than half of their value
Would greatly appreciate any thoughts on the meeting John.
Hhhmmmm I think the picture is very clear now guys 😥😥😥
İn my opinion yes. Post disposal of russian assets I think the picture will be clearer.
Many thanks E.P. Should we be concerned by this part: "The dividend payment will be subject to a discussion with the Omani's" ?
Notes from today:
By my calculation earnings per share from Poly.K are $0.60-0.75.
V. Nesis:
Hoping to dispose of Russian assets in Q1. The disposal deal termsheet will probably be released to shareholders in February. They are down to 1 single buyer.
The buyer is under no western sanctions (and is not a stand in for a sanctioned entity).
Potential buyer is in Russia (they were warned off selling to the Chinese).
Relationship with and perception of Polymetal inside Russia has deteriorated. It is seen as still western ("unfriendly) due to the shareholders. Partly this explains the exit of ICT (A. Nesis is a Russian owner not residing in Russia).
The new Omani shareholders are viewed as a neutral party by the Russian authorities.
Nesis thinks an exit is now more easy which does not damage or devalue the Kaz entity.
In particular; Poly K will still rely on POX processing inside Russia for 3-4 years and so this is crucial to continued business. A clean break from Russian debt liabilities needs to created in the disposal. The deposal will not release the value previously thought. The disposal should cover Poly K's Net Debt though.
V. Nesis is still invested / committed.
To get back on the LSE Poly K will need to "bulk up" and this will take 2-3 years
V. Nesis is committed to staying with Poly K
The Omani's want nothing to do with the Russian entity. AIX listing was also based on a commitment to dispose of Russian assets and needs to be followed through on. Even if the asset is not sold at good value it needs to be done.
The dividend payment will be subject to a discussion with the Omani's and only after the disposal of Russia assets.
Expression of thanks to colleagues at Poly.R who are dealing with all the "crap".
Yet still some alive enough to use the filter button.
This forum is so dead that nobody posts here the "huge excitement" among investors after presentation (bruh) and meeting (uh)? (like if it were any different after previous quarterly presentations).
Thanks E.P - don't know enough myself to check how this all stacks up against John's hopes but look forward to any analyses :)
Https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/news/press-releases/31-01-2024/
Of course, possible net closing in on Alex Nesis in Cyprus from sanctions imo is also a factor in selling his stake. But if sale in Russia was close, I think he may have held off from selling. Anyway, we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Good Luck
Many thanks John as ever: all those wishes hardly sound unreasonable or far-fetched. I hope you will have the time for post-meeting thoughts too.
(Ps I don't know too much about shareboard etiquette but by way of thanks, a look at Hemogenyx's board - especially the posts of your equivalent over there JustHereForHemo - could be worth it as there is a reasonable possibility of good news there within the next 1-8 working days.)
@Moorscloud.....in response to your comment, first and foremost would be to hear Mr Nesis say its business as usual as far as he is concerned, that he is still in control and committed to the job as long as shareholders want him, despite his brother (Judas) selling up. Nesis understands the business, understands Russia and the region better than anyone else and so is pivotal to the success of POLY navigating the current situation and re-establishing itself on growth path once again.
I am of the opinion that there’s been no progress on the sale of Russian business and that is why his brother Alexander sold out. Think about it, why would you want to sell out so low IF realising ‘value’ from Russia assets was around the corner? If the news we get is to the contrary, then that would make my day.
Bytheway, I have already submitted questions including one on your behalf asking…What is proving more difficult in exiting Russia; is it finding of a buyer willing to pay a fair price or negotiating fair settlement with Russian authorities on the proceeds?
Moving onto figures, I’m looking for a very positive trading update with production increasing by 10% year on year, EBITDA at around $1.5bn and Net Profits at around $1bn; assuming inventory has been wound down to normal levels of course from high figure as at end 2022. I think this would put a solid floor under the sp going forward and set it on upward trend once again.
Divi is impossible without divesting away from Russia, so I would like to hear the huge cash flow arising in Russia been used to pay down costly debt. Given healthy trading in Russia, I’m looking for debt to fall to quite a bit below $2bn at year end as compared to over $2.5bn at ye 2022.
Like many POLY holders, I’ve been shaken a bit since news of Alex Nesis selling out yesterday and resultant impact on sp, so will be looking for reassurance.
I’m out all day tomorrow and so will hope recording is available after the event.
Fingers xd………….
Bit obsessed with what's going on over at Hemo and He1 at the moment but very much looking to your thoughts John after tomorrow's meeting. It doesn't sound as though you're expecting that much news on the sale; what would you like to hear may I ask?
Yes...I didn't know 2 were different people. I hope Vitaly Nesis does hang around cos he has done a magnificent job.
Major shareholder Nesis was Alexander Nesis, whereas Polymetal Group CEO is Vitaly Nesis.
@RGP007...if that is the case, then I admit my mistake... APOLOGY.
I hope all works out for us all.
You appear to be confusing Nesis the CEO with Nesis the now former investor. They are brothers. Nesis the CEO has never been a "major investor"
I think its only matter of time before Nesis is replaced; and he has to be replaced as he is no longer a major investor. Not taking anything away from Nesis cos he has done a fantastic job to date saving the company.
IMO it is the prospect of sanctions closing in on him and hence forever be labelled Putin's enabler which led to his decision to divest and only matter of time before he steps away completely. This will also be better for POLY as they will soon be led by someone who is not watching over their shoulder all the while in fear of sanctions.
Not sure how the sale of Russian assets is progressing, but I fear not too well. IMO there's no shortage of buyers but think Russia penalty may be too high a price to pay to do a deal. This means POLY could be in Russia for a long term until conflict ends during which there will be no divis but shareholder value will continue to accumulate since the business is highly profitable and will remain so in the near future.
In the meantime, sp on AIX falls for second day running whilst it remains steady on MOEX. It all makes for an interesting meeting tomorrow, and let's hope it works out best for all.
Fingers xd.........