Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Poly's financials including earnings for 2024 and after will likely be greatly influenced by whatever grand plans the board and management come up with to (re-)grow the company (K-POX and new mineral resources). I think it's prudent to wait until those details are announced to make more informed predictions.
The 2023 $439M "EBITDA" POLY touts is not accounting standards EBITDA. That's POLYs "adjusted EBITDA" which gooses up their EBITDA number in several ways, standard EBITDA is lower. And even after their accounting preferences/tricks, their "Adjusted EBITDA" for their Kazakh mining operations was down 15% year over year. For 2024 POLY has projected even lower production and higher costs in Kazakhstan. While higher prices for gold sales will help, 2024 will also involve higher costs and lower production.
Furthermore, POLY will be need to spend large amounts on the K pox and new resources to mine going forward. So don't plan on any significant dividends for quite awhile.
You appear to be confusing Nesis the CEO with Nesis the now former investor. They are brothers. Nesis the CEO has never been a "major investor"
"Even if they wrote the Russian assets and debt off completely leaving no assets from the sale they could still pay a divi."
And in that case they'd be immediately faced with having to take on massive debt to finance the multi-year construction of a POX facility in K as well as financing new K mining ventures. All while their gold production in K continues to drop.
So no, a Poly dividend won't happen unless and until Poly manages both to sell its Poly-R assets for some gain and figures out a way to get those funds out of Russia.
None of BSR's and others postings about what is or isn't happening with Ukraine or Zelenskyy or Biden or the US Congress have anything at all to do with Poly anymore. When it comes to Poly, those issues just don't matter. Poly will be disposing of its assets within Russia's border and none of BSR excited postings about Ukraine will change that. BSR posts are basically porn for his circle-jerk and have nothing to do with Poly.
Yes, there are Russian restrictions on sales of assets in Russia for companies in Russia declared "unfriendly" countries. However, Poly recently redom'ing from a unfriendly country to Kazakhstan won't magically remove those restrictions for Poly sales, since the decrees apply to companies that were from unfriendly countries as of a date before Poly redom'ed.
If you think the Russia government will bypass the opportunity to extract significant concessions or "contributions" from the sale of Poly's Russian assets simply because of the recent redom paper shuffling by Poly, you're pretty damn naïve.
"Also OFAC needs to allow the continuing processing of Gold in Russia till new PoX is built"
That won't happen. OFAC absolutely won't license that and use of Russian processing by the sanctioned subsidiary (or anyone else in Russia) for Kazakh gold violates US sanctions in multiple ways and would end up with the Poly corporate parent put on the US OFAC SDN sanctions list itself.
No, it looks like the poster saying "AUCOY- polymetal in the US is rising fast" is a buffoon.
AUCOY is an ADR for Poly run by Bank of NY Mellon. BoNY closed the ADR for new issuance back on July 1st, over 7 months ago. Furthermore, nearly all US brokers stopped handling trading of AUCOY since US persons (ie individuals and companies) are forbidden from buying Poly under OFAC sanctions guidance. While some occasional trades in AUCOY have been reported over the last half year, they have been tiny, infrequent, and basicaly meaningless since AUCOY is essentially iliquid.
The 10th round of EU sanctions reportedly adds four more Russian banks to the sanctions list. At some point Polymetal and its Russian subsidiaries will run out of Russian banks they can transact with.
The RNS did not explain *why* "one of the central counterparties which provides clearing and settlement services for trading on the London Stock Exchange (the “LSE”) determined that, for the time being, they are unable to clear trades in the Company’s shares "
However the inclusion of the sentence "The Company and the Group continue to comply rigorously with all relevant legislation and has extensive measures in place to observe and comply with all applicable international sanctions" gives a hint that the central counterparty likely stopped in clearing Poly trades because of sanctions. They're not going to risk it no matter how much Poly protests the Company "observes and complies" with all sanctions.
More 3rd parties refusing to deal with Poly is not good news.
Various western sanctions apply to every company operating in and person located in Russia. If you are going to ask yourself a question, maybe 2, one of them should be if you're really dumb enough to think that Poly needs to be explicitly named in those sanctions for them to affect Poly.
Apparently you haven't been paying atention to what the company has been going through over the last 11 months.
chique - I also remember those days. However the difference from your 1980 experience is there would likely be no broker to "handle everything". You would have to find a buyer or seller, you would have to figure out / negotiate price, you may have to "handle everything".
Also, the primitive form of OTC trading described is not the worst-case scenario.
Some posters have said don't worry - Poly says even if they get delisted, shareholders could still trade OTC. However shareholders might want to investigate the type of "OTC" trading they might be limited to.
For example, take a look at what's happened to Everaz to see a glimpse of Poly's possible future. The reason is because (UK) sanctions caused the FCA to suspend trading of Everaz shares on the LSE. The second reason is sanctions caused Everaz to lose the services of its existing share registrar and no other companies could or would provided the service. Paper share certificates were issued to shareholders. Everaz took over as its own registrar.
Everaz tells paper shareholders that they can still trade shares "OTC". This "OTC" process is out of the 1920s. You need to find someone to trade with, fill out forms, pay a stamp duty, post the certificates and forms in to Everaz, wait for them to process the transaction, update their share register, print and send out new paper certificates, etc. You probably won't be able to find a broker or electronic "OTC" site to help arrange any trades because they won't want to expose themself to violations of UK sanctions and/or FCA regulations.
Details of this primitive manner of "OTC" trading can be found on the Everaz web site:
https://www.evraz.com/en/share-certificates/
"Can you post a link to the source of this information please RGP007?"
@squeaky19 Which piece of info do you wish sources for?
Crystal ball:
RU sanctions and restrictions prohibiting companies connected to "unfriendly" countries (eg Poly) from forming or continuing Joint Ventures or renewing mining licenses in Russia will continue to screw over Poly. The same with restrictions on transfering dividends or funds.
Redom from Jersey to Kaz won't be enough to solve the above problem. RU will just move the goalposts from preventing companies based in unfriendly countries to companies with the majority of its beneficial holders in unfriendly countries to paying dividends or forming JV, etc.
UK and EU sanctions will make Poly's listing on the LSE increasing untenable as further professional service providers refuse to do business for or with them (eg Computershare Channel Islands)
The US passed a law last month requiring the US Treasury / OFAC to create a Russia Gold related sanctions list within 90 days. It is expected Poly will be on it, quite likely Poly CEO Nesis too. When that happens, Poly will be in a even deeper world of hurt. Many of the major investors, owners and technology suppliers to the Astana AIX exchange are US companies. It's questionable whether they'll actually work with Poly as is, but they'll certainly won't do so if Poly or its execs are on the US SDN list.
Poly will lose the LSE listing in 2023. Poly is unlikely to make a new listing on AIX work.
"I cant see why they cant domicile to KASAK exchange and still trade on LSE"
Then you should watch the CEO's presentation from earlier this week where he mentions why.
The quote is from the transcript of this week's investor presentation.
"just to reiterate, we believe the current jurisdiction and position is unsustainable and has potentially a fatal critical risks for the survival of the company as a going concern"
"Evaluating options does not mean you have identified "a pathway to success" as GoldenTemple claims."
Whoops, pardon me - the bogus "pathway to success"claim was CR888's, not GT's
No, it clearly states they do not have a plan. "There can therefore be no certainty that the Company will proceed with, or ultimately complete ..."
They are at best planning to maybe have a plan, maybe not.
Evaluating options does not mean you have identified "a pathway to success" as GoldenTemple claims. The company is still saying they don't know, there's no certainty there, they're still looking at it.