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LOL, it's just occured to be that PMO1 was issued for £150m about the same market cap of the equity today.
I'm sure it was £150 without checking.
The previous none ORB issue, which I believe was the base Prospectus for PMO1, was £500m - again from memory.
PREMIER OIL PLC £500 million Euro Medium Term Note Programme
From PMO1's Info. Booklet:
This Information Booklet relates to the Premier Oil 5% Sterling fixed rate Bonds due 2020 (referred to in this Information Booklet as
the “Bonds”). A base prospectus dated 18 November 2013 (the “Prospectus”) which relates to Premier Oil plc’s £500,000,000 Euro Medium term Note Programme and which comprises a base prospectus for the purposes of Article 5.4 of the Directive, and final terms relating to the Bonds dated 25 November 2013 (the “Final Terms”), have been prepared and made available to the public in accordance with the Directive. Copies of the Prospectus and Final Terms are available from the
website of Premier Oil (www.premier-oil.com/ bonds) and the website of the London Stock Exchange plc (www.londonstockexchange. com/newissues). Your Authorised Offeror will provide you with a copy of the Prospectus and the Final Terms.
And yes it was £150m
Devon, I’d agree that the bonds are a key indicator to how the company is viewed by the wider market.
However you make reference to the drop in bond price as a concern. Yet if we look at the charts the historic lows were at the last crash 20016 and feb this year. On both occasions bonds dropped into the 30 yet now with everything up in the air and Pmo teetering on the brink the bonds are still in the 70s. Although I’m surprised they are still as high it does undermine your own argument
Surely it shows things may not be as bad as they seem. IMHO
PMO1 are an indicate to the extent they are the only elements of the cap table, outside other ordinary shares, that we can see a market price for.
Yes, they have been as lower as 32% of par, my point was that being public they may provide insight into elemets of the cap table we can't see prices for. That all being said, the major disposal of part of the cap table by a signifiant entity at 72% (as being reported by Reteurs, and the possible lack of interest again as being reported by Reuters) is interesting when the publically traded debt is now below that 72% mark.
I agree with you, I expect them to go lower, but you have to consider this in the mix. Most buyers of retail bonds hold them with the intention of keeping them to maturity. They aren't speculating in them, so aren't watching them on a daily basis.
They will also be held my institutions and family office, who will be watching on a daily basis. They aren't exclusively retail products. So there's the potential for them to lag, but that doesn't mean they aren't indicative of wider sentiment.
I don't think it does undermine my arguement. My arguement isn't that company wont be around - or whatever Happy calls it - my arguement is that I don't know what the cap table is going to be like going forward and if there's was a creditors/stakeholders waterfall, there's little chance of anything for sharehoders with the level of debt. I suspect there will be pain coming down the line for both positions, equity and debt, but it's very unlikely not to be felt by shareholders more than any other party given equities position vis-a-vis debt. I'm not sure you can decribe a credit default as teetering on the edge for business, as much as teetering on the edge for shareholders. I've also said I'm sure there's a future for the company, just less sure who the owners will be. THERE is a difference. In some terms shareholders are seen as owners of the business, in other accounting terms it's seen a who has greatest claims on the future earning of a business, and at this point it feels like creditors do. I think that a fair position given the uncertainty, PMO1 might be up of it's lows, but that doesn't mean it wont see them again.
"That all being said, the major disposal of part of the cap table by a signifiant entity at 72% (as being reported by Reteurs, and the possible lack of interest again as being reported by Reuters) "
I of course mean, planned auction at 72%
"look at the charts "
All I see forming is a choclate starfish. LOL
" I think that a fair position" unfair postion! This site needs an edit function. LOL
Hi devonplay - I don't follow this stock that closely but hoping you can help explain the Reuters 21 Sept scoop.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/premier-oil-restructuring-arcm/hedge-fund-arcm-to-sell-200-mln-of-premier-oil-debt-sources-idUKL5N2GI32K
From the annual report total debt was $2,187m at end 2019
If ARCM sells $200m and is left with £240m that means their share of total debt is appx. 20 percent. However, the debt is a mixture of bank loans, retail bond and senior loan notes. I can't see ARCM getting too involved in the RB as they don't appear to like extra scrutiny and bank loans are not traded as easily as junk bonds. I read it as the journalist has possibly messed up her sums. I don't have a dog in the fight regarding the debt but ii ARCM do have that amount of debt no wonder they're trying to offload it. Sometimes traders get carried away and (I'm probably wrong) but if any of Clara's amounts are correct then there is a chance that ARCM have something close to 82% of the senior loan notes or if you add the FRN then it is c.45% of total debt. That doesn't seem right?
I could ramp and say that their nuts are in a vice and TD has a choice. I really don't know but it is possible that ARCM have been outmaneuvered and are currently "perched".
correction; take away the retail bond $536m and the bank loan of $1bn and using some of Clara's figures ARCM could potentially have c.68% tradeable debt. Torture any set of figures long enough and they'll say what you want to hear. lets see if the auction actually happens.