Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-10/china-hungry-for-crops-amid-bad-weather-and-food-security-push
I sold out after the fiasco of a threat to leave LSE without explaining the alternative... Still following the company though; how much cheaper could it go as there seems to be a determined / distressed seller(s) slowly feeding more shares than the market can digest.
China buying up stocks of grain and soybeans means next years harvest can expect to be sold at higher prices so farmers may be prepared to invest more in inputs. Whether PHC can sell those inputs is another question but overall the market should see positive influences.
Numlungu
Quite right about a seller who has been relentlessly dripping shares into the system. When the seller pauses, the shareprice creeps back up, so defo oversold.
In some ways it’s good that we lose weak holders with too much skin in the game. Also, I’m sure we have a few new retail holders to diversify the shareholder base.
It boils down to whether you see PHC as a good company with a future or a dud. For me it’s a great company with a hell of a future. I’m a LT buy and hold person so this is the Black Friday sales for me ( although I don’t want too many more).
Many of the Investment funds I follow are sitting at multi year lows, the whole redemption thing is feeding on itself as funds sell assets to meet their obligations. Funds held by other institutions such as Lion Trust are in a worse position with both retail and institutional selling, Lion Trust for many years was highly converted by the likes of Buffettology which hold sizable stakes.
Hopefully a change on rates will see some of the declines reversed in 2024 for everyone.
What are investors thoughts on H" this year Sept IMC Q & A session was interesting, Jeff's sounded pretty confident when quizzed on figure need to for f/y.
H1 $5.6m which equated to 1% increase on 2022 H1, this leaves a whopping $10.3m for H2 to achieve f/y $15.9m guidance.
H2 - 2022 came in at $6.3m so adopting a more cautious approach I would suggest in the region of $8m is more realistic, therefore f/y 2023 would come in at $13.6m.
Even if they roll over some of the revenue into 2024 it would still equate to a very reasonable 15% growth on 2022 numbers.
By chance, Lion Trust is featured in today's Mail article
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12717623/The-FTSE-350s-worst-performers-2023.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html
Glad we did a fund raise before the recent crash.
I listened to the IMC presentations a couple of times. At the time of broadcast, the company would already have known some of the H2 data since we were a couple of months in, and there was some bold optimisim on show. So I'm hopeful for H2. Drops like the one we've experienced are tough for investors and we have to have faith in the companies and funds we purchase. I quite like the investment advice below.
--------------
Investment Approach
In our opinion, business ownership offers the best means to protect and grow capital in real terms over time. It
provides us with a claim on the true sources of wealth creation. Patient long-term ownership of a limited number
of carefully selected businesses, each providing products and services that satisfy society’s needs, is the core of
the Company’s investment approach. It has no defined time horizon for each but hopes to own them for decades.
Simply put, its goal is to buy well and hold on.
It will seek to partner with competent and honest entrepreneurs or business owners who share with us a
community of interest. These individuals will have the privilege and burden of overseeing the distribution or
reinvestment of company cash flows, a key determinant of the rate at which our capital will compound over
time.
In order that this wealth creation accrues to us as owners, and is not competed away, each of our businesses
should have barriers to entry that are scarce and difficult to replicate. They should also operate with capital
structures and business models resilient enough to endure life’s inevitable vicissitudes.
We believe neither ‘risk’ nor ‘value’ is a number that can be found on a spreadsheet.
Given the sanctity of capital we see ‘risk’ as the likelihood of permanent capital loss. The careful selection
of each business the Company owns is its best protection against this outcome – even then we will make
errors of judgement. As long-term business owners we do not view asset price volatility, or illiquidity, as
risk. You should know in advance that it will not avoid large drops in the share prices of the companies it
owns. By understanding its businesses and management partners we hope to have the resilience to survive
these falls and the courage to take advantage of them.
We ‘value’ scarcity, resilience, adaptability, ingenuity, probity and competence. The Company will look to
own as much of this as possible for every portion of a business it acquires. Price volatility may provide it
with the opportunity to acquire a greater portion of this value relative to the price we are being asked to pay -
a welcome outcome.
https://www.valu-trac.com/administration-services/clients/dominium/VT%20Dominium%20Holdings%20Interim%20Report%202018.pdf
15% y/y increase would be okay in my book, of course happy if this is exceeded but also mindful of the lumpy nature of revenues, smoothing out year to year may help appease investors.
Morningstar updated, not a huge fan of this site as there are no dates but it does show Crux selling down further, could be our distressed seller in which case has to be close rump with data being delayed.
PHC shareholder page has yet to update but looks okay when adding in Newlands and Scobie recent purchases.
Just as a closed out this page after posting, CBNC has a feature on funds money flow, again interest bearing instruments receiving most of the capital.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/t-bill-and-chill-why-jack-bogles-strategy-of-lazy-investing-is-making-a-comeback-.html
Concur with Investment Approach as posted below.