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I knew this was worth a punt, can't wait for the 20p mark now
"If no-one comes in, then this stock will be worth precisely zero - the debt holders will get any proceeds to pay back what they're owed. You have been warned." Brave Matthew, That's a rather odd comment when coming to a board that has seen two weeks of substantial rise - as well as closing prices at the days high. Even if merely 8p..., if you came in during our mentioned bullish alert from 2.75p, so that's quite a premium, wont you say??
Exactly how do you know what somebody would be willing to pay?
Exactly Mike. Chartist, I say it because it's true- so what if it doubled in a week - over the last year, it's down 90%. You obviously spend all your time looking at graphs, so let me explain something about fundamentals. I said IF someone buys it you might get something like 8p. I would ascribe maybe a 25% chance of this, so 75% chance it goes to zero - which gives you a weighted average price target of 2p. So, not for me, and that's why I sold at 9p. If it get's back to 2p, then maybe. I wish you luck, but this a coin toss without the benefit of a 50/50 call IMV
Normal technical retrace now after the share spike. @Mike, scroll back in the RNS list (or google) how much Vislink paid for Pebble Beach purchase. This is the selling price.
The current retrace could go to 3.60p and even 3.10p. All well as long as we stay above 3.10p. Right now the high 4p buy tells us there are still buyers behind the scenes. Someone still accumulates for whatever reason.
Mike007, How's your trading day going with the main indices? Right now we are seeing the long awaited 15-20% summer correction that was discussed on Cnbc.com several times. About PEB: Three years after the aquisition of the well established and well functioning californian business, this share could easily sell themselves for $20+ mil today. -------------- "March 2014, Vislink acquires Pebble Beach Systems for a total consideration of £14.9 million, comprising £12.9 million payable in cash and £2.0 million..."
Chartist - some homework for you - how much debt does the Company have. that will tell you how much of the £15m would be left over for shareholders once the debt holders have been paid off. Once you've done that, we can then discuss how likely a forced/panic seller (like PBS is at this moment in time) is to get a market price (answer - not very) and hence whether even the £14.9m is likely.. Then let's look at the current market cap and work out just how 'cheap' this stock is.
Matthew, brave man, we still ought to rafinesse this bit: There is no "garage sale" where merely slices of PEB are sold!! You, in negative expectations, are assuming that the banks (all of them) will want their money back at once - and loose all luctrative interest payment? Very unlikely. The money has been lend on a long term deal. IF we, us, some of the substantial shareholders, wanted, we could even get PEB to move away from UK (and all european banks) and move to the US. Right where the california operation is, and theres where we replace all former financing with fresh long term arrangements. The software company is running quite successfully and generating reliable income. Let's assume that one or another US bank will quickly be interested. The fact right now is that someone has been sneaking in here / coming in here under the radar, thats from 2p up!! Today the Sp is 4p. What to make of this? I think PEB, with the help of allied investors, plans to stabilize the running business and make themselves attractive for a suitor who buys the entire outfit - not cheap slices of it. Back in 2014 Vislink has bought a hidden gem in california. A company that had several other suitors circling them. Today, three years later, the businees has grown, and no matter who buys it (even if it does fall into the hand of the banks), it will continue to operate the same as yesterday. Todays 4p price tag / 5 mil Pounds is really cheap. And that formerly paid 15 mil Pounds is quite cheap for the fully operating business. Could there be a chance that a large US tech corporation swallows pebble beach and integrates it into their own oeration? Think about it. Then we are talking takeover time, with premium paid and at least $25 mil paid. How much would this leave us after debt..? Fifteen Pence per share maybe? Your turn for the homework!
Share Price: 4.075 And everything is back to stable level. While it is nice to see 4p, I fear that someone is sneaking in here and will try to take PEB off the market in a hurry ...and then handover silly 8p or 10p to shareholders (while II's themselves could harvest 25-30p per share if the maintain californian pebble beach for another three years).
Someone sure likes these: 11-Aug-17 13:59:24 / 4.24p / 75,000 Buy* 4.004.253,180
Chartist - Re your (quite extraordinary) post from Thursday evening - I'm guessing that either English isn't your first language, or you're 17 years of age. Either way, it's clear that you don't know the first thing about fundamental investing, and I'm not particularly convinced about your TA skills either). I realize that you are probably beyond help here, but with £12m in debt, even if they got £15m for the PBS asset (which I doubt), that would only leave £3m for shareholders after the debt has been repaid which is less than 2p per share. However, as they are now panic selling the firm, it is doubtful that they will even get this much. The Company is now being run for the banks, not the shareholders, and all they're worried about is getting the loan paid back. If you don't believe me, I suggest you get the 2016 R&A and read the interim chairman's report - it's clear the mess they're in. You're welcome by the way.
MattTheBrave, good man, Obviously you've guessed right and noted my poor foreign English skills. You come to Zurichlake one day at lunchtime and try to discuss chart alerts in Switzerdütsch with me, okay? : )) I agree with several of your points. Fully agree. But here just a few things: - Some of us are in here since 2p. Today the share price is 4p, correct? Good, because this already means a fat gain. - Several signals show that this could rise to 8p rather fast. I dont know the news-reasons for this, but a rise to 8p would mean a fourfold. - Only a large buyer could have started this strong rebound from that 2.65p and 3.10p buy alerts. So who has bought in here? Who has become interested in this company? Food for thought, Matthew.
If you got in at 2p the bully for you - all I'm commenting on is what the price does from here. I don't believe technical signals have any value for a binary stock like this one. By definition the past is now irrelevant, only how they deal with and try and survive their current situation. I disagree with your 'large buyer argument' - stock is illiquid and frankly akin to casino gambling. Even a modest buyer can push the stock up and down a long way, whilst there's lot's of gamblers prepared to 'punt' on a stock at this price - it certainly doesn't men they have any better idea what's going to happen than you or I. I don't but stocks unless I can see a fundamental reason why the business will not be a success longer term, which includes staying solvent - not enough visibility for me here. Good luck to you, but I do hope you haven't bet more money here than you can afford to lose.
Matthew, brave man! So this is our main misunderstanding that cause our discussion: I for one was not looking at the past. I assumed that people (me & you included) bought at the 2p bottom. Or at least during our mentioned sure-thing bullish alert as from 2.60p. All of these people should have a nice smile on their face today. "Highly illiquid"...? Back then I for one was able to place a large buy at 2.75p and got within seconds executed. Normally here on the european mainland my bank takes up to 5 - 15 min. with certain stocks. They bought PEB instantly, I can sell PEB instantly. ------------- "I don't but stocks unless I can see a fundamental reason why the business will not be a success longer term, which includes staying solvent - not enough visibility for me here." I bought some PFG/ Provident during the one day drop for around 500p. I can sell today for around 770p. Business model? Man, we are traders / investors! If it rises it rises. If it falls, it falls. Whatever it is that manages to rise! The good old formula to get deeply involved (and fall in love) with a public listed share has not much meaning today.
Don't know whether it's your muddled English or your muddled thinking, but I don't really understand what point (s?) you are making. Yes you can point to situations where stocks get oversold, but there are just as many examples of value traps where the stock just keeps falling. Punting on these is simply guesswork and gambling, so your argument that you don't gamble is complete tosh. I make my money by identifying long term undervalued stocks, and holding long-term. By liquidity, I'm talking about from an institutional investor, not a small PI like you and me. It's the institutions that really move share prices, not us.
Which was my point? This was my point: "I assumed that people (me & you included) bought at the 2p bottom. Or at least during our mentioned sure-thing bullish alert as from 2.60p." Matthew, I assumed you also bought in during the 2p days. This caused some misunderstanding. And another thing: I don't invest for long term. Too risky these days. Simply identify an undervalued share (totally agree with you) and then look for a twofold at some point. (Once again, sorry, for my muddled foreign English!)
Why would you assume people bought at the bottom - in reality, seldom do - more luck than judgment in my view. I don't see investing in the long term as risky - quite the opposite if you've done your research and can ride any volatility due to (idiots?) trading then you can wait for the thesis tom play out. It's' what Buffett does, if you've heard of him. Gambling on penny stocks who's outcome is completely uncertain - now that's risky.
---------------- "Why would you assume people bought at the bottom - in reality, seldom do - more luck than judgment in my view." Maybe because some peeps on this bb here gave a dozen BUY alerts for this share when the 2.65p line has been climbed. Okay? Matthew, so there is the misunderstanding: You are referring to yearlong holders of this share who must be sitting on a severe loss. While I was speaking about a new opportunity when this bottomed at 2p and later triggered a long term bullish alert when the 2.60p wall has been climbed. -------------- "I don't see investing in the long term as risky - quite the opposite if you've done your research and can ride any volatility..." I strongly doubt that the normal day trader (like me) with his 12k or 15k quid invested in a share like this will be ready to sit out the volatility from 5p -> down to 2p. No way Jose! If this aint performing, then out - I need the dosh for my other fifteen positions in the portfolio.
I do not "believe" in a share - nor fall in over with a share. I do not believe a word that a PLC director is saying unless the share price shows the truth. PEB like any other share is just another trade - or actually bet - placed on the London Stock Exchange. This is the state of affairs in the year 2017. (Yes, I wish it would be 1995 again and the good old times with Cable & Wireless, but unfortunately those times are gone. The world has changed too much.) (Today vast numbers of highly educated 27 y.o. sitting on 1,000 Euro jobs all over Europe, who will never be able to buy a flat. At the same time each and every employer is coming under pressure from unfair competition around the world - and who will never again be able to give secure your workplace.) What to make of this? Adapt!
Automatic sells triggered as from 3.50p / 3.30p and today at 2.90p. Always best to work with a trailing stop in my opinion. Now placing new buys as from 3.30p, in case of a sudden announcement. It looks like the last up-trend this summer - as signaled from 2.65p - has been staged artificially by insiders and their financial allies who simply wanted to maintain a higher price range, but already knew that the half year report wont be that good. There is little other explanation for that summer recovery to as high as 4p! Happy on the sidelines again and waiting for the next trigger.