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Don't compare Apples with Pears please!!
The markets are getting hammered apart form the US but they will take everything down eventually.
China problems with Covid are serious now even though 89% are va
PDL will break 115p tomorrow??
Let's hope it holds because the next stop is 96p !!
The elephant in the room is the $357m debt here.
@MrCarats: Blackrock World Mining Trust is down ~9% today => almost all miners are out of favour. i.e. Today's drop is unlikely to be anything company-specific. Time to go to the gym or play some tennis.
@Wigwammer: ;-)
Sounds like MASSIVE undervaluation, carats.. keep buying :) .. “ PDL had a £1b mcap with $700m debt not so long ago… Now £230m mcap with half the debt so what the hell is going on ”
2.2p old money says it all to me !!
The Market has serious issues with PDL for some reason.
Bondholders payed 3.4p old so still well underwater.
At least a 50% rise to breakeven for them.
PDL had a £1b mcap with $700m debt not so long ago.
Now £230m mcap with half the debt so what the hell is going on ???
Carats: I disagree about your explanation.
I do not think the selling these days is due to a well known gross debt, which has been consistently reduced during the year, and should be considered in a balance sheet perspective where the net debt is so small it is almost insignificant.
Instead, and in addition to my previous posts, I just noticed that we have also hit a top line barrier stemming from 2018 and 2019, which intersects with the one I mentioned from april 2021. We have plenty of experience of large players playing the big games, selling out in spite of the day-to-day improvements... We wil just have to weather it to move on.
I do not have enough insight to forecast exact amounts. But my expectations was actually around that number based on a few simple assumptions. Let me explain:
Prior to the Q3 FY 2022 sales report in April, I noticed that the results of the 4th tender 7th March 2022 showed that like-for-like prices rose 38% versus the previous tender, which ended December 15, and jumped 47% compared with the six months ending December 2021.
Given that 1) full year revenue 2021 was $402m, a price increase of at least 47% would land the full year revenue FY22 around $600m. Furthermore, I assumed that the cost would be at the lower end of the budget given consistent messages from Duffy. I know it is more complicated than that, but if increasing prices could level out the increased capex, we land at a quarterly net debt reduction of about $50m during FY22. So, $45m pretty much hit my mark...
PDL getting a hammering today !!
$357m debt is showing why this isn't rising now.
As for $50m in dividends just shows what clown we have on this board.
Read my message before the RNS !! Looks like my prediction was spot again.
At best PDL will be £1.50p by Xams??
AIMHO
Carats: actually, I said the opposite. Please have another look, and you can see my statement is that we might have to revisit 115 again. But yes, I also state that, personally, I do not think it is a fair price...
Note Carats hasn’t answered my simple question - was he negative on PDL at 85p? .. of course he was, so hugely positive that he hasn’t capitulated yet :)
Splendor 120p already!!
What was you saying about 115p not being revisted ??
“the 22q3 sales report was only as good as could be expected” says splendor. Were you expecting a $45m reduction in net debt? (over one quarter, with only $5m contribution from exceptional stones)
“the 22q3 sales report was only as good as could be expected” says splendor. Were you expecting a $45m reduction in net debt?
Completely agree pv.
Like I said, although currently the scenario needs to be taken into account, I do not find it likely that sp will actually revisit 115 this time.
The future perspective on potentials should be stronger than the historic boundaries, when the market considers the right level for pdl.
With fcf at 200 million they could easily reinstate the divi paying say 50 million and still have more than enough for debt reduction and capex etc..
Hogwash Mr.C
More jam tomorrow like most shares where we all think 10 baggers exist !!
Buybacks and Dividends are pie in the sky for at least another 2 years when debt is in a reality world around $100m
Thanks splendor for that !!
So real debt to Petra stands at $357m not the $107m we all think with these not so transparent RNS's we get every quarter.
Maybe people can see why the share is muted around 140p and
why we might actually have to revisit 115…
Since December2021 the sp built a strong upwards channel, which led me to believe that the sp would rise from the bottom to the top within that channel in the coming weeks.
However, we have just hit another resistance level coming from april 2021. Hitting this Line the sp has previously recoiled downwards before it reduced its rising trend.
So, since there are no real material changes to the company itself, and the 22q3 sales report was only as good as could be expected, it remains to be seen whether the short term upwards trend or the older resistance level wins this month… right now, it looks like the old resistance level takes the price.
However, personally, I would put my money on the new trend to break through since it builds on the current drivers. Not least because of the fact that the Big sell-out from the Old bondholders that held back any major rise from becoming sustainable, seem to have run its course. But others might think differently…
In sum, based on this weeks sp development, we might see more turbulence in the coming weeks than I previously expected. This, of course, does not alter my solid buy recommendation for PDL in the longer term (6-12 months)…
Another revisit to 115p is nailed on next week
"Disappeared as quickly as it came"
Sounds like spoofing.
Disappeared as quickly as it came
........ for 190,000+ shares @ 128 on Level 2
carats: I am not exactly sure about the reference for your $45m, but, this year, PDL has paid interest and other debts than the 2L notes that replaced the former bondholders debt. In their recent presentation from Feb there is a slide on the anticipated development of their capital structure, with gross debt going from $426m in december 21 to $357m to March 22 (i.e. during Q3 in Petra time). Of course net debt is another matter, since it can be reduced much more without actually paying anything...
Ok. You first. Were you or were you not negative on Petra at 85p? No porkies now..