The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yield has loads to do with mining share market valuations, see FRES/CEY/GLEN/RIO etc. Hence why the mid 20's for PAF is a barrier. The market would only price PAF at 80p if there was seen to be a corresponding return, and that would be dividends and so a reasonable yield. Or if the POG went absolutely nuts, say $3000.
The UK based shareholders are subject to holding tax but not the SA holders.
If there is a 2c/3c dividend with the yearly results in August/September, then an SP in the late 20s/30s would be justified, which is about right if there is to be a gradual rise towards Mintails coming on line end of the year and production included in results for 2024 to 2025.
Nothing to do with the dividend.
That's taxed anyway.
P/E multiples here are far too low.
PEG also.
IMO To justify an SP of 80p they would have to be paying around a 5p/6p annual dividend. Not anytime soon, but perhaps in several years.
Just load up :) nothing goes up in a straight line and gold will eventually cross 2500 this year once interest rates start coming down. This is normal pull back every time fed farts…
Still making $1000 per oz here.
Targeting 240-250K production next year.
$250M profit.
10c EPS (pre tax)
10x P/E is reasonable = 80p.
Agree about the chart, I was watching from 4pm today, unlike me as I tend to try and do anything but watch the market that closely as it tends to make me buy or sell too early. The gold price was bouncing off recent support at 2294, and PAF on about 24.25 which would be good to buyback my sale of the wow afternoon in the 25s, but IMO POG will break lower than 2294 and PAF could present opportunities in the 23s or lower. A really positive update increasing the annual guidance should strengthen the mid 20s which would also be great for my long term holdings. We'll see.
I sold mine at 25.05 from around 17p. Chart looked toppy. Like you say I expect others have taken profits as well. It’s up strongly from 16p in a relatively short time.
Added elsewhere with view to coming back here later.
Trek
Bit of a drop today.. Must be profit taking and the POG retreat.
I'm keeping a watch for my target buy prices well under 23p for my trading capital. Maybe if the POG goes down to mid 2200s or lower and stays it will present more buying opportunities for PAF shares.
A quarterly update, as I outlined before may not be as radical as the gold price suggests due to the POG movements averaged out Jan to March unless as we've speculated the guidance is corrected by 10k ounces or back up towards 200k for the year. Certainly the 6 month update in July should be nothing short of the companies best ever year IMO.
Watch this fly once results come out !
And wow
Wouldn't the BEE (Black economic empowerment) issue be a stumbling block for the likes of BHP ?
If a bid did come in I'd sell up in the hope any offer got rejected and I could then buy back cheaper after rejection.
Well someone is mopping 3-6mil shares nearly every day, who knows… I expect this to be on the radar, potential bid around the corner.
Peanuts for them.
Company has to be in play at this share price and growth prospects with a forward P/E of 3, but are they willing to sell...?
.
PAF set for lower costs by FY25
We have forecasted the Mintails all-in sustaining cost at US$993/oz, which is above the US$914/oz estimated by PAF. As Mintails comes online, we forecast the PAF average AISC to drop from US $1287/oz in FY1H24 to US$1038/oz from FY27. This is not only due to lower costs at Mintails but also further cost savings expected at both Evander and Barberton.
Initiate with a BUY rating and 31p target price
We value Pan African Resources using a 50/50 average of our longer-term NAV-based valuation (at 1.0x) combined with our shorter-term EV/EBITDA-based valuation (at 4.5x). With a 2024 NAV valuation of 33p, we estimate that PAF is currently trading 0.70x NAV, in line with other global peers. However, with a greater FCF forecast when Mintails is in production, we see further upside to our NAV in the coming two years. We set our initial price target on Pan African Resources at 31p. With 35% potential upside
Of the Gold mining companies sill have very low P/Es whilst their revenues are kicking-up dramatically.
A not unexpected drop in the price of gold over the last couple of days (not just because of Israel/Iran going quiet, but the laws of gravity coming to play) has resulted in some buying opportunities for those who have hedged their bets with physical bullion holdings, and the multiplier of Gold mining shares.
I bought first stock for 23.6 when gold was 1920$/oz and PAF produced only 175koz. Now I think it was stupid investment as price could not reach even 30p at POG=2300$ and production 190koz. However enjoying with really good dividends for several years.
Great end to the day. They said op update soon. We'll see.
Looks like RNS day tomorrow!!
With rising solar power PAF could reduce AISC to
My holding is Messive here as well and I’m well into profit having bought at 13-16p, my view is Mintals is coming online soon, we are making tons of $$ at the moment, dividend will increase, the only way is UP from here not down, even at gold $2000. Once the financials are out , I don’t see this trading at these levels. Not many Goldie’s at this price with PE3. I was tempted to trade as well but too risky of missing out
At an AISC of $1350 even at $2200 they must be racking it in now.
Also a pull back to $2200 will only get people buying more who have been looking for an entry point for weeks now...
There is a possibility of a further pull back to 2075 the break out point of gold but there would be massive buying at that point , I don't think it will get to that level personally.
At $2200 gold, there could be a breakout for PAF above 24p if they increase Ozs ,but probably not if they don't.
So for you PAF will break out above 24 even if the POG retraced to 2200, which was my question.
Btw. My holding is massive, I trade extra in all my large holdings to improve averages. Normal stuff.
With news around the corner and PE of 3 don’t think this will drop much and if it does it will recover pretty quickly, plenty of buying at this level as PAF is due a re-rate. For me it’s too risky to trade PAF.
Hi. All. I've just put in a hopeful buy order at 22.1p for a number of shares I traded twice already in recent weeks without leaving me short of cash. If it kicks in once again I'll be really overweight in PAF. IMO the drop was a bit overdone yesterday on gold miners but chart-wise the base of the recent gap around 23 is still holding up.
Will gold retrace more, say down to $2200 ? Even if it does, what say Pan African put out an update that increases their 180k-190k ounces guidance to 190k-200k. They surely could as now there's only two months left of their year so PAF will have a much better idea within the thousands of ounces.
Would PAF break out above 24 even if gold meandered around 2200 for example ?