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Nice chart, Gavster. Looks positive in long terms. The only concern is surge this week. Too strong momentum downwards at flat gold. Somebody needed money or burned £0.5M up to drop the price. Oversold drastically today. I guess the play has not finished yet. I will keep cash for two weeks when the trend exhausted.
Yeah, if we could all predict the market we'd all be millionaires much sooner. I bought back yesterday at 24.5, and could have got less than24 today. At least the SP bounced off the trend line on the one hour chart which I mentioned this morning. Image showing that here. https://postimg.cc/c6Ld2kLF
GDX is up and VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF are both higher today too. POG recovering too.
We'll see..
An improved production guidance RNS would be nice to see Mr Loots ?
Gavster, thanks! Good information about Eskom. Almost insiding. Unfortunately algos don't make any link between production and load shedding. Too complex for most of investors. I don't think take off will happen before RNS or directors deal. Still waiting for lower price to jump in. What is embarrassing that I can't predict SP at all. Yesterday it grew on falling gold, today it's falling although POG higher than yesterday.
Interesting
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-gold-production-in-2023/
Trek
Yeah, I jumped back in yesterday with my trading cash, the good news type feeling in South Africa could have a great effect on our guidance, production and so the SP too. 33 days without load-shedding so far.
The one hour chart shows an uptrend with a current low around 24p, the daily chart shows the bottom of the trend around 20p but that would mean the gold price breaking down to around $2130 on its daily chart uptrend. POG one hour chart is on a down trend, and the POG bounced right off the bottom of that trend yesterday. Down trends of course break upwards and that would be about $2350.
https://mybroadband.co.za/news/investing/534721-cautious-optimism-about-load-shedding.html
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/33-load-shedding-free-days-crime-is-down-business-is-up-as-lights-stay-on-20240502
Thinking aloud about China's relentless gold buying as part of the speculation they are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan. Would the USA/West step in and out bid China to stop them getting it, so sending gold on a tremendous spike upwards ?
Looking at prior SP behavior, today's rise is rather unusual. Low volume anyway. I am waiting for 23 ish to get in back.
So you think PAF will break rank, defy its history and behave like an American growth share...
Well I'd love to see it !!
Nope. All to do with EPS and PEG.
Most US stocks yield 1 or 2% and hedge fund managers still get all excited about that! FRES and CEY yield is pathetic.
Back in.. Now very overweight.
If there is a retrace to 23 or lower, I will be massively overweight..
Yield has loads to do with mining share market valuations, see FRES/CEY/GLEN/RIO etc. Hence why the mid 20's for PAF is a barrier. The market would only price PAF at 80p if there was seen to be a corresponding return, and that would be dividends and so a reasonable yield. Or if the POG went absolutely nuts, say $3000.
The UK based shareholders are subject to holding tax but not the SA holders.
If there is a 2c/3c dividend with the yearly results in August/September, then an SP in the late 20s/30s would be justified, which is about right if there is to be a gradual rise towards Mintails coming on line end of the year and production included in results for 2024 to 2025.
Nothing to do with the dividend.
That's taxed anyway.
P/E multiples here are far too low.
PEG also.
IMO To justify an SP of 80p they would have to be paying around a 5p/6p annual dividend. Not anytime soon, but perhaps in several years.
Just load up :) nothing goes up in a straight line and gold will eventually cross 2500 this year once interest rates start coming down. This is normal pull back every time fed farts…
Still making $1000 per oz here.
Targeting 240-250K production next year.
$250M profit.
10c EPS (pre tax)
10x P/E is reasonable = 80p.
Agree about the chart, I was watching from 4pm today, unlike me as I tend to try and do anything but watch the market that closely as it tends to make me buy or sell too early. The gold price was bouncing off recent support at 2294, and PAF on about 24.25 which would be good to buyback my sale of the wow afternoon in the 25s, but IMO POG will break lower than 2294 and PAF could present opportunities in the 23s or lower. A really positive update increasing the annual guidance should strengthen the mid 20s which would also be great for my long term holdings. We'll see.
I sold mine at 25.05 from around 17p. Chart looked toppy. Like you say I expect others have taken profits as well. It’s up strongly from 16p in a relatively short time.
Added elsewhere with view to coming back here later.
Trek
Bit of a drop today.. Must be profit taking and the POG retreat.
I'm keeping a watch for my target buy prices well under 23p for my trading capital. Maybe if the POG goes down to mid 2200s or lower and stays it will present more buying opportunities for PAF shares.
A quarterly update, as I outlined before may not be as radical as the gold price suggests due to the POG movements averaged out Jan to March unless as we've speculated the guidance is corrected by 10k ounces or back up towards 200k for the year. Certainly the 6 month update in July should be nothing short of the companies best ever year IMO.
Watch this fly once results come out !
And wow
Wouldn't the BEE (Black economic empowerment) issue be a stumbling block for the likes of BHP ?
If a bid did come in I'd sell up in the hope any offer got rejected and I could then buy back cheaper after rejection.
Well someone is mopping 3-6mil shares nearly every day, who knows… I expect this to be on the radar, potential bid around the corner.
Peanuts for them.
Company has to be in play at this share price and growth prospects with a forward P/E of 3, but are they willing to sell...?
.
PAF set for lower costs by FY25
We have forecasted the Mintails all-in sustaining cost at US$993/oz, which is above the US$914/oz estimated by PAF. As Mintails comes online, we forecast the PAF average AISC to drop from US $1287/oz in FY1H24 to US$1038/oz from FY27. This is not only due to lower costs at Mintails but also further cost savings expected at both Evander and Barberton.
Initiate with a BUY rating and 31p target price
We value Pan African Resources using a 50/50 average of our longer-term NAV-based valuation (at 1.0x) combined with our shorter-term EV/EBITDA-based valuation (at 4.5x). With a 2024 NAV valuation of 33p, we estimate that PAF is currently trading 0.70x NAV, in line with other global peers. However, with a greater FCF forecast when Mintails is in production, we see further upside to our NAV in the coming two years. We set our initial price target on Pan African Resources at 31p. With 35% potential upside
Of the Gold mining companies sill have very low P/Es whilst their revenues are kicking-up dramatically.
A not unexpected drop in the price of gold over the last couple of days (not just because of Israel/Iran going quiet, but the laws of gravity coming to play) has resulted in some buying opportunities for those who have hedged their bets with physical bullion holdings, and the multiplier of Gold mining shares.