Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Knows what he’s doing re spins off?! Last time I checked Poolbeg, that was still a disaster
Pretty much agree with all of that Shandypants !!
CF certainly had his faults but he certainly knew how to get things moving SP wise! Yes he was very over optimistic, but that's standard in the AIM world. I still believe this is an awesome stock, huge growth market, growing margins, growing revenue, growing pipeline, next to no competition, there really is nothing to not like about this stock.
What I'm struggling with is the 2023 top line view, why is growth all of a sudden coming to a standstill?? We're set to do £50m this year, but only £55m next year - of which most of this is already booked so we are told. What vexes me considerably is how this reconciles to the £80m weighted pipeline. So this weighted pipeline is what they expect to win, its not the absolute number, this may be £120m or more. But if most of the £55m is already booked into next year, where is the £80m of expected new revenue ? Or is the pipeline now so far into the future that its mainly beyond 2023. To me, this doesn't add up unless I'm missing something blindingly obvious???? I really don't see how we only move up £5m in a year when we have £80m weighted pipeline. I'm all for under promising and over delivering but this is verging on ridiculous. I'm a LTR and expect to hold this 2-3 years, I fully expect we will end up north of 50p within that timeline. CF will land the spin-offs when the time is right, he knows what he's doing, I have no doubt about that. DYOR.
i think both Citizen and PB and partly right.
The H1 numbers were a little underwhelming for a self styled fast growing company. Yes margins are increasing (slowly) and YE 2022 guidance was reiterated but IMHO this looks challenging. Even with say £48m rev for 2022 that's a 23% YoY increase, which is decent growth.
The 2023 revenue of £55m also looks underwhelming, although maybe this was poorly communicated - i think this should have been a minimum of... etc. I do feel we need another c20% YoY growth.
From the recent presentation IMHO whilst Mo appears a safe pair of hands as CEO the CFO didn't come across that well.
How will we continue growing - we will increase EBITDA margins a bit. Is that it??
I do also feel the SP has been penalised for CF's over enthusiastic comments, however, having said that the buzz around this stock has definitely gone. For all his faults CF did create a buzz before and after every presentation. Now nothing.
The lack of news on spin offs is very disappointing - conservatively valued at 9p. For the life of me i can't understand why DIM cannot be kicked off within ORPH and then spun off later. Similarly the issues with Seek and Immutex have been known for over 2 years now and still no progress.
At the current SP i don't think the valuation is challenging and we could get some spin off news at any time. Also more contract news would be good (malaria CS!!) as it is clear that the contracts are getting bigger and more valuable. Having said that it is possible we don't hear any news for the next 2 months!!
Nothing to suggest that they won't meet that revenue forecast, which means H1 effectively irrelevant. I don't see the underwhelming performance you mention, except in terms of spin-offs which were always likely to be a moveable feast in the volatile markets of recent months. Seems to me very likely the dual listing is forthcoming. The latest Imutex news alone would have prompted a re-rate if pharma rather than CRO was core business imho. Feels like OO is being penalised for being a sound business with solid growth potential rather than a pure speculative pharaoh play (there is a bit of that here too obviously). My sense is that the Sp has been collapsed by concerted campaigns to undermine confidence for whatever reason. But let's see what the coming weeks bring.
Citizenlane, I don't doubt the good work done in achieving the turnaround but amongst the stream of nice headlines and contract wins, they haven't achieved any meaningful profits or cash generation yet. That will presumably come when revenue goes up from 40 to 50M per year on a fixed cost base. Y22 is supposed to be the year, isn't it, when that finally happens. That's why H1 results were so underwhelming. With full year results more than 6 months off, ORPH's SP is treading water. Even then who knows whether the full year results will live up to expectation as they have built up a history in the past couple of years of underwhelming investors with their results either on the revenue side or the cost side and trust has been frittered away unneccessarily, without even mentioning the spin-offs and future 1BN valuation stories.
Times they are a changing !
Hey guys I made a podcast today & I covered #ORPH its looking very interesting, IMO https://twitter.com/SwazersC/status/1571464391908032513?s=20&t=NL0X4FWs1djndlpB6w7ufA
You mean, pbag, in “the two years of turnaround”. Isn’t that what turnaround actually means ie getting things in a sound footing in order to create profit and growth. The contracts recently signed are mostly for about double those of even a year ago. There are multiple new challenge agents. Covid studied pending.
H1: Accounts receivable 13.3M vs accounts payable (ie incl prepayments on contracts) 23.7M vs cash of 15.9M
Considering cash of 15M was raised during H2 Y20, article just shows once again the complete lack of cash generation in the past two years despite a full order book.
O'Spiel made a series of crass comments re: spinning off Imutex, ignoring the fact that OO is a junior shareholder and insulting the majority shareholder at a perceived lack of progress, which got OO abs nowhere. Flip side of fearing OO will handover 49% for a nominal fee equally makes no sense at all.
Shareholders having been fed a croc of Spiel for so long, have now been kept in the dark on these issues for over 9 months. Think shareholders deserve a lot better and some form of update is well overdue.
I am not at all worried about being ripped off for Flu-V, I dare say the most recent paper being released would make it even harder for them to low ball us as its obviously quite valuable, plus if im not mistaken SEEK were due to pay a £2million covid loan repayment today or yesterday so let's see where things stand, if they're short on cash they may be forced to monetise it a lot faster which benefits us Orph holders (as all they've done so far is nothing but drag their feet) but it seems somethings are happening so hopefully we hear something in the next few weeks.
After all the stick Cathal has taken the last year I bet he's going to want to maximise the most value possible from the non core assets like flu-v, no way he's just going to accept a nominal fee.
A wall of silence from Walbrook Public Relations regarding the new article on Flu-v posted Wednesday. It only adds to my concern Open Orphan shareholders could be ripped off regarding our holding in the Imutex assets. I'd hate to hear we've handed over the 49% to the board of Imutex for a nominal fee especially considering who's already on the Imutex BOD and after Wednesday's insider dealing story, this would not be a good reflection on our BOD? Previously OO would immediately issue an RNS if a new article was published regarding the Imutex assets so what's with the silence??? Aimho Adyor!!! Any thoughts from you guys?
Posted this morning.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/992909/open-orphan-booming-orders-show-market-leadership-992909.html/long
Nothing new for anyone already in but gets the message out there for others I guess.
Nod to Sev22 for flagging it up, over there. :)
Can’t imagine there’s any skulduggery regarding Imutex, OO’s 49 per cent stake in the JV has been clear and irrefutable from the outset. They can be slightly slow in RNSing scientific progress, I seem to remember a delay in reporting the stage one malaria vaccine trial (another potential JV goldmine) perhaps the lines of communication are not all they could be, but I would imagine we will hear soon enough. Given the solidity of the Hvivo core business these potential game-changers are a powerful incentive to invest at these prices imho, topped up myself at under 10p yesterday, but still overdue a re-rate as sentiment turns again dyor
They’re responsiveness is admittedly inconsistent. But in their defence, they have responded promptly to various emails I have sent regarding serious matters. However, at other times not so prompt. The pattern hasn’t seemed to be related to the subject matter.
Nice one, it'll be interesting if they give a response. I'm not impressed with radio silence when it comes to keeping us informed about serious business unlike, that joke story that got RNS'd this morning.
I have also just emailed Louis at Walbrook asking for comment regarding the article and what it implies for ORPH.
I've had no reply from Walbrook re the new Flu v article, yet Walbrook managed to reply to a question from Timber yesterday within a couple of hours about a non event story a out some chump supposedly insider dealing that turned out to be nothing I would have thought any news on the Flu-v update was far more important to OO shareholders. Maybe someone is trying to swindle us shareholders regarding the Imutex assets..Anyone else fancy trying to get some response on the article?
Other drugs at this stage of approval (stage3 ready) have been sold for hundreds of $millions?..Having watched the Poolbeg 6 monthly update a few weeks ago, a number of comparisons were published in the presentation showing the value or recent deals by Big pharma buying out successful vaccine/drug candidates, some were valued in excess of $billion from memory. The Poolbeg conversation related to Polb-001 that is related treating Flu complications etc, whereas the Imutex Flu-v is an outright vaccine candidate. I would expect some sort of RNS if there has been some movement on monetising the Imutex assets..I contacted Walbrook PR for a comment and waiting a reply. I noticed that Imutex is registered at Walbrook House, not sure what the connection is? I'm concerned that some shady is going on with SEEK group and Imutex as we're not getting any official updates, but someone on ADVFN picked up the newly published article yesterday? Adyor!
thanks for posting that link Moni, reading the discussion at the end of the report gives a clear indication of Flu-v's efficacy across the full range of flu virus strains, notably those with most pandemic potential. It reads to me like a "come and get me" prospectus for Big Pharma to partner or full buyout the most advanced flu agent in the world. Reading between the lines of CF's statements about SEEK it sounds a little as if he wished the 51% partners moved at an entrepreneur's rather than a scientific research pace. To me this published research reads like them responding to that urgency (albeit in a research scientist timeframe). See no reason that OO would sell their stake. Potentially v positive news.
https://imutex.com/
Why has this paper on Flu v been published yesterday. I thought that Imutex (SEEK) had put the project in the cupboard? The last time CF actually answered the question he was trying to get SEEK (51% the JV partner) to monetise the asset with a big pharma but they weren't talking to Open Orphan or CF..what's changed and why is there no official RNS. I asked a question of Mo last week at the six months update, but he just said OO don't develop vaccines...Well those of us LTA's already know that but Imutex is still an Open Orphan asset sat on the books. I hope SEEK are not trying to pull a fast one on us and surely CF is obliged to give an update if something has changed as he and Leo are showing as board members of Imutex on their website.
https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/vaccines/vaccines-10-01528/article_deploy/vaccines-10-01528.pdf?version=1663164886
As Warren Buffet almost said, “the best time to buy is when message boards become like porcupines“ (full of p—s)
Exactly Magoo
I took that utterly contrived article as a signal to start buying back in :-)
(I mean seriously - of all the potential insider dealing and manipulation on AIM… this is what they choose. LOL)
Feels good to be back.
That was released last week via an RNS and in the 6 month trading update...
Open Orphan Plc has announced a change to the company's name to hVIVO Plc.