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Followed and been invested in ORPH for a while (from 8p) and this is my view;
- range bound between 13.5 - 16.5p for a week or so
- As soon as we break 17p on contract news a fairly quick move to 20p
- Huge 30-60 % rise on immutex news by Sept
- With steady news flow and revenues + immutex 25-30p by Xmas
All with very little risk to the downside unlike 95% of AIM stocks.
DYOR but load up sub 17p is my approach.
I like your evaluation there. Immutex is the golden goose for me and CF knows what he has. The Quotient machine is good for publicity and profile but £10m revenues from one machine at capacity is dwarfed against £125m to £175m for Immutex.
Have I got this right that we assume a sale at £300m (£150m to OO) then that is a dividend of c.26p per share (as current market cap is 80m against 14p) and so just for immutex this is a hold in terms of value. Might be totally wrong and welcome views on this bit.
That's about the nuts and bolts of it. Business is probably worth £200m... Then add in Imutex
raharh, personally I agree with your second paragraph, but do you only think there will be £10 net per test to Open Orphan?
Could be right caluation but no one really knows the value of Imutex especially if flu v is found to be a truly viable universal vaccine...during the last interview with the CEO of Imutex back in 2018 they said flu v could potentially have sales of £10 to 20 billion annually...yes £10 to 20 billion...!!!! So where the Valuation of £200 million comes from I just don't know...that's why you guys need to do research.....
https://www.fiercepharma.com/universal-flu-vaccine-biotech-seeks-big-pharma-partnership-for-phase-3-testing-ceo
I think the valuation they are using for Imutex comes from Cathal talking about Merck's aquisition of Themis for a sum he believes to be around 200 to 300 million, and Themis being a very similar company to Imutex.
Question for moniman. If someone offered £300 million for Imutex tomorrow, all to be paid out in a dividend should Cathal take it?
The alternative being the Nasdaq option.
That's right. CF specifically said he felt the valuation would be between £100m and £500m and to the upper end. £350m is £175m to CF and he said it would be paid through. So just working on the Exec Chairman's numbers.
Rudey - it was CF who said £10m revenue for Quotient machine in his presentation this week - that also was his take which is why I think in relative terms it is low (unless there is a demand for multiple machines) compared to the challenge studies (£80m for 12) and Immutex.
I am worried about getting my balance wrong in my small portfolio - but OO is very attractive.
For those that have not seen the presentation:
www.openorphan.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/year/2020
Slide 14 is pipeline and revenue opportunities - Quotient is £10m - £30m - I am taking the £10m so as not to over egg the goose. Not been accused of ramping and dont want to start now - just trying to follow the facts.
Good question. It is all about risk vs reward...if a large pharma is prepared to back phase 3 trials of Flu v and it is proven then it could be worth many many £100's of millions, that's the $64,000 question... I would have thought CF employs some experts to research the value of all OO assets including Imutex....Although Woodford and Invesco got their timing badly wrong with Hvivo, they poured £100's millions into that project so they must have thought they were really on to something special ...just need to monetize it now...let's hope CF is a shrewd as he comes across as to monetize the sleeping giant..