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Glad it's of some use guys. I agree that the progress of LSRT revenue vs market cap is certainly worth noting - it's arguably a better buy today than at any time in it's history...
2016 - £4.5m revenue, £2.32 share price, £1.2b cap, £130m cash
2017 - £13.7m revenue, £2.32 share price, £1.2b cap, £70m cash
2018 - £32m revenue, £2.58 share price, £1.5b cap, £90m cash
2019 - £52m revenue, £2.58 share price, £1.5b cap, £5m cash
2020 - £65m revenue, £2.65 share price, £1.7b cap, £80m cash
2021 - £127m revenue, £4.25 IPO Price, £3.3b cap, £618m cash
*2022 - £152m revenue, £2.75 share price, £2.3b cap, £540m cash* - estimates based on info provided in March.
*2023 - £205m revenue...
So we can say it's trading at around 8x next years EV/Revenue vs around 25-30x when it raised cash in 2020 and 17x at last years IPO.
ShearClass, good find. I am constantly topping up maybe I am being a fool, the reasonfor top up is their revenue is going up even if the covid is taken out of the equitation also recently the had 50mln settlement from the government deal.
Good notes Shearclass. Thats helpful for my due dil. Grateful. Will share once i am done. £1.90+ might be a bit far off
Posted before I'd finished, so I've added the approximate market caps based on what IP group disclosed their stake was worth at each point in time (all available via their RNS's)
May 2021 : £3.50 - £2.4b cap
Oct 2020 : £2.65 - £1.7b cap
May 2020 : £2.65 - £1.6b cap
Jan 2020 : £2.90 - £1.6b cap
Mar 2018 : £2.58 - £1.5b cap
Dec 2016 : £2.32 - £1.2b cap
Jul 2015 : £2 - £1b cap
Apr 2014 : £1.43 - £640m cap
Sep 2013 £1.23 - £530m cap
May 2012 :£ 0.82 - £300m cap
So there are plenty still either in profit or around breakeven - the share price has basically returned to 2016-2020 levels. What is also of note is how little the share price changed between 2016 and 2020 - just 30p or so. Lots of dilution with little value added.
Then there are also ~180-200m shares that were issued pre 2012 at share prices ranging from 17-73p.
I suspect it'll hit some support soon, but who knows. I certainly wasn't aware of the bonus issue which is quite outrageous when you think about it - 355m shares were issued and the IPO opened for trading at £5... wow.
The problem is that they launched on the back of the huge COVID spend. which no longer supports the growth value. Its an undeniable good company, just another bad example of mispriced IPO by the greedy city boys. Not likely to help future IPOs unless they can come up with a better way, because valuations always seem to be a complete gamble under and overpriced.
I've just spent an hour on companies house working through the pre IPO funding rounds + share price at the given time.
Firstly, the following statement from page 236 of the admission doc is key;
"On 23 August 2021, the Company issued its Ordinary Shareholders, on a pro rata basis, one bonus Ordinary Share for each Ordinary Share then in issue (the "Bonus Issue"). Immediately following the Bonus Issue, on 23 August 2021, the Company effected a subdivision of its Ordinary Shares then in issue on a 10-for-one basis (the "Share Subdivision")."
So everyone that had bought shares prior to 23rd Aug 2021 got a free share, effectively halving the price paid per share...
Knowing that, it's possible to work out the share price of the prior funding rounds
May 2021 : £3.50
Oct 2020 : £2.65
May 2020 : £2.65
Jan 2020 : £2.90
Mar 2018 : £2.58
Dec 2016 : £2.32
Jul 2015 : £2
Apr 2014 : £1.43
Sep 2013
likely selling at a loss. today we broke the last historical support line. where is the bottom? I don't know but the £1.96 as per one of the posters' suggestion seems possible now, its anchored to its last valuation point.
Are they selling on loss as this is much much lower than the ipo prices.
Havent revised my charting yet to see FIB levels at this sp. Will do that at some point, this week or early next, and share it here, either from me or my lil bro.
From old charting, we have now breached the lower band of the sub channel (~298, we are 292 at the time of writing).
The main channel low at this point is just above 200. Bear in mind the channel and sub channels are in a downward direction so the bottom and top of these channels continue to drop over time unless there is a breakout (overall market needs a big push for growth stock to appreciate).
I've got my eye on the valuation that they raised at in January 2020 (£1.6b) which is equivalent to £1.96 today. It was certainly impossible to justify paying £7 a share here before Christmas as that was a huge jump in market cap in less than 24 months. Certainly near the top of my watchlist now...
it's really shredding value, wonder where the next support level is that could be broken?
And now shame its back there again! RBS has cut its target to 400 from 700, hardly surprising with it languishing at this current price.
Starting to think this is one to just tuck away and ignore for many months.
Glad it bounced off that 308, did have me rather concerned for a while. dont have any funds to buy down here, but a) is this the bottom anyhow b) my two purchases so far havent worked out too well.
holding holding
Me too, this is one of my retirement plans. I did a year's worth of DD pre IPO and having owned significant Illumina and PacB shares in the past helped a lot to give me comfort. I honestly believe this company has legs and a better investment than Illumina but market is dragging everything down.
I havent yet topped up as I am too scared (i have deep scars from the past), and minding the bear market classic behaviour.. (rallies, fade, rallies fade, repeat.... all while keeping within a downward channel that started on the 29th Dec 2021 for ONT).
Good luck with your top ups (and mine too when it comes, we all need some luck in this market).
I’m thinking of buying back in. Excellent company with a big future. Hoping the sp may drop a bit more but as soon as one of my other holdings goes blue I’m selling and buying Oxford nano.
This will be a long term hold for me .
glad to see 322
We are in a sub channel that started on the 16th March, cycling 35 points (between upper and lower sub-channel). upside from here is 340 assuming it reaches the top sub-channel. Needs some good news (company and world!) to prop us up a bit more.
People's are worried about the rising inflation which have lead to recession, hence many growth stocks will be struggling. It is all about holding ones nerve at current economic situation
bounced back to 315-316
certainly have got a lot of vacancies on their website currently
certainly one to watch but not rushing to buy anymore, realised i have no clue where the bottom could be
the fact it broke 315 is a bit worrying.
if S&P does go under as Morgan Stanley predicts, 200 or sub is likely for ONT. I am holding off topping up for now, as i suspect we will be having the bargain of our lifetime soon.
**https**://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/bear-market-rally-setting-stage-for-correction-morgan-stanley-warns.html
be mindful or take advantage of the dead cat bounce - **https**://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1518777183354957831/photo/1
GLA / DYOR and not financial advice.
no but just wished id delayed my purchases!
Did you buy this expecting it to bag in a few weeks?
and now it worse
decent rise from such low sp.
Volumes have really picked up as market see huge opp on the drop from 700p.
340 was big support and hence took a nice chunk to offload near 450p.
Excellent RNSs' and brokers have much much higher targets.